Brazil 10-Year Yield Falls After Election Poll

2026-09-02 18:52 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 14.45% from a near one-month high of 14.90% reached on August 14, following the release of the Genial/Quaest poll on the 2026 presidential election.

The poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie in a potential October runoff, with Lula receiving 42% of voting intentions versus 41% for Bolsonaro.

Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s GDP expanded 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slightly above forecasts, driven mainly by agriculture.

However, the detailed breakdown was weaker, suggesting economic momentum is fading despite a tight labor market and short-term demand stimulus measures.

For the BCB, the data suggest that the effects of monetary tightening are increasingly visible, potentially leaving room for further Selic cuts.



News Stream
Brazil 10-Year Yield Falls After Election Poll
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 14.45% from a near one-month high of 14.90% reached on August 14, following the release of the Genial/Quaest poll on the 2026 presidential election. The poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie in a potential October runoff, with Lula receiving 42% of voting intentions versus 41% for Bolsonaro. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, while elevated domestic yields and weak business activity continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Brazil’s GDP expanded 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, slightly above forecasts, driven mainly by agriculture. However, the detailed breakdown was weaker, suggesting economic momentum is fading despite a tight labor market and short-term demand stimulus measures. For the BCB, the data suggest that the effects of monetary tightening are increasingly visible, potentially leaving room for further Selic cuts.
2026-09-02
Brazil 10-Year Yield Rises After Treasury Auction
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher to 14.60% from a three-week low of 14.57% reached on August 25th, pressured by the National Treasury’s auction of fixed-rate securities. The auction was the main factor driving rates higher and steepening the yield curve, marking the second-largest of the year by financial volume. A total of 31 million securities were offered on August 27th, with a financial volume of more than $24 billion.Meanwhile, labor market data confirmed expectations for another decline in Brazil’s unemployment rate, from 5.4% to 5.3%. The labor market remains highly resilient, with employment and formal employment reaching record highs, which could lead the Copom to pause its 25-basis-point-per-meeting easing cycle. However, Brazil’s inflation rate eased to 4.25% in the first half of August from 4.44% in July, remaining below the central bank’s 4.5% upper tolerance band.
2026-08-27
Brazil Yields Fall on Tighter Election Race Prospects
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 14.7% from the near one-month high reached on August 14, supported by expectations of a tighter presidential race and broad-based weakness in the US dollar. Financial markets view Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive than President Lula, particularly as elevated domestic yields continue to weigh on economic activity. Recent developments, including an investigation into leaks involving Lula’s son and signs that Flávio is narrowing the gap with Lula in potential runoff scenarios, have fueled expectations of a possible change in government and economic policy. On Monday, a BTG/Nexus poll showed Lula and Flávio in a technical tie in a potential runoff. The weaker dollar also provided a more favorable global backdrop for Brazilian fixed income. However, US Treasury yields remained elevated despite the Treasury raising the limit on long-term bond buyback operations.
2026-08-21