Brazil Private Sector Falls the Most in a Year

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Brazil fell to 44.4 in October 2026, the lowest in over six years, from 47.4 in September, signalling a fourth consecutive month of contraction in the Brazilian private sector. The downturn was broad-based across manufacturing and services, with aggregate activity dropping at the steepest pace since the period before late 2020. New business also fell the most since mid-2020. Manufacturers reported sharper declines in sales and output than service providers, although their rates of reduction eased from September. Weaker workloads led firms to cut headcounts, but the fall in employment was only marginal, while backlogs of work declined substantially. On the price front, input costs and output charges rose at softer rates than in September, although both remained above their long-run averages. Cost pressures were stronger in services, while manufacturers raised their selling prices at a faster pace.

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Brazil declined to 47.4 in September 2026 from 49.1 in August, signalling a third consecutive month of contraction in the Brazilian private sector. The downturn was the sharpest since September 2025, as the dominant services sector returned to contraction and manufacturing activity weakened further. Demand deteriorated significantly, with new sales falling at their fastest rate since April 2021. Alongside budget constraints and geopolitical uncertainty, firms and their clients appear to have adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the first round of the presidential election. Weaker workloads led to further job cuts, with employment falling at the fastest rate in five-and-a-half years, although the overall decline remained moderate. On the price front, the rate of input cost inflation quickened from August but ouput charges rose at the weakest pace since February. since February

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Brazil rose to 49.1 in August 2026 from 48.8 in July. Although the figure pointed to a second successive contraction in private-sector activity, the downturn was less severe than in the prior month. The weakness was mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector, while services activity showed signs of stabilisation. Manufacturers recorded a sharp decline in new orders, whereas demand among service providers was broadly unchanged. Overall sales continued to fall, although less than in July. Employment also remained under pressure, with manufacturers continuing to cut jobs while service providers kept payrolls broadly stable. As a result, private-sector employment declined for a third consecutive month. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures eased in August, with both input costs and output prices rising at slower rates. However, price pressures remained historically elevated, particularly in the services sector.