Brazil Industrial Pessimism Deepens in September

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 44.9 in September 2026, remaining below the 50-point threshold and marking 21 consecutive months of pessimism. The Current Conditions Index dropped 2.5 points to 40.2, driven mainly by a more negative assessment of the economic environment. The index for Brazil’s economy fell 3.6 points to 33.0, while the measure of companies’ own conditions declined 1.9 point to 43.8. The Expectations Index also deteriorated, falling 0.9 point to 47.2, as expectations for the Brazilian economy dropped 0.6 point to 39.1. Expectations for companies’ own conditions fell 1.0 point to 51.3.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index rose 1.9 points to 46.3 in August 2026 from 44.4 in July, ending a two-month streak of consecutive declines. Despite the improvement, the index remained below the 50-point threshold, marking the 20th consecutive month of lack of confidence. The Current Conditions Index rose 1.1 points to 42.7 as negative assessments became less intense and widespread. The improvement reflected better assessments of Brazil’s current economic conditions, which rose 1.9 points to 36.6, and companies’ own conditions, which increased 0.6 point to 45.7. The Expectations Index rose 2.3 points to 48.1, recovering part of the 3.1-point decline recorded in July and indicating that expectations for the next six months remained negative, although pessimism eased. Expectations for the Brazilian economy rose 2.5 points to 39.7, while expectations for companies’ own businesses increased 2.2 points to 52.3, signaling a return to optimism.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 2.3 points to 44.4 in July 2026 from the previous month, marking its second consecutive decline and the 19th consecutive reading below the 50-point threshold, according to the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). The reading was also the lowest since June 2020, reflecting more widespread pessimism among manufacturers. The Current Conditions Index slipped 0.7 point to 41.6, as assessments of the Brazilian economy fell 1.3 points to 34.7 and firms’ own conditions declined 0.3 point to 45.1, indicating businesses continued to view conditions as worse than six months earlier. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index dropped 3.1 points to 45.8, its steepest decline since November 2022. Expectations for the Brazilian economy fell 3.8 points to 37.2, while firms’ own outlook weakened 2.7 points to 50.1, nearly eliminating the optimism recorded in previous months.