Brazil Business Confidence Falls to Lowest Since June 2020

Brazil's Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 45.2 in April 2026, marking the lowest level since June 2020 and the third consecutive monthly decline. The Current Conditions Index dropped 1.6 points to 40.5, driven primarily by a 3.2-point fall in entrepreneurs' assessment of Brazil's economic conditions to 33.2 points, while the index for current company conditions declined 0.8 points to 44.1 points. The Expectations Index also weakened, falling 1.2 points to 47.6, as the expectations index for Brazil's economy slid 1.7 points to 38.7 points, reflecting deepening pessimism, while expectations for their own companies fell 1.0 point to 52.0 points, signaling reduced optimism.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 1.6 points to 46.6 in March 2026, marking its second straight decline and nearly erasing all gains since August 2025. The Current Conditions Index dropped to 42.1 from 43.8, reflecting worsening views on both the national economy and company-specific situations. The Expectations Index fell to 48.8 from 50.4, dipping below 50 for the first time since November 2025, signaling negative outlooks for the next six months. This shift reflects growing uncertainty among industrial leaders, driven by persistent macroeconomic headwinds, high interest rates, and geopolitical risks, particularly the Middle East conflict affecting global commodity markets and trade. Businesses are turning more cautious, with broader economic sentiment outweighing any remaining resilience in company-level forecasts.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 0.3 point to 48.2 in February 2026, remaining below the 50-point threshold. The Current Conditions Index declined to 43.8, down 0.2 point from January. Entrepreneurs’ assessment of the broader Brazilian economy became slightly less negative (+0.6 point to 38.6), while perceptions of their own companies worsened (-0.6 point to 46.4). The Expectations Index also eased to 50.4, down 0.3 point. Expectations for firms weakened (-0.5 point to 54.3), while outlooks for the Brazilian economy improved marginally (+0.2 point to 42.7), though they remained in negative territory.