Brazil Business Confidence Improves but Remains Weak

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index rose 2 points to 47.2 in May 2026, ending a three-month sequence of declines, though it remained below the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. The Current Conditions Index increased 2.4 points to 42.9, reflecting improved assessments of both companies’ current conditions (+2.2 points to 46.3) and the broader Brazilian economy (+2.9 points to 36.1), although perceptions remained negative overall. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index rose 1.7 points to 49.3, moving closer to the neutral 50 mark and signaling less pessimistic views for the next six months. Expectations for the Brazilian economy increased 2.2 points to 40.9, while confidence regarding firms’ own outlook improved 1.5 points to 53.5.

Brazil's Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 45.2 in April 2026, marking the lowest level since June 2020 and the third consecutive monthly decline. The Current Conditions Index dropped 1.6 points to 40.5, driven primarily by a 3.2-point fall in entrepreneurs' assessment of Brazil's economic conditions to 33.2 points, while the index for current company conditions declined 0.8 points to 44.1 points. The Expectations Index also weakened, falling 1.2 points to 47.6, as the expectations index for Brazil's economy slid 1.7 points to 38.7 points, reflecting deepening pessimism, while expectations for their own companies fell 1.0 point to 52.0 points, signaling reduced optimism.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 1.6 points to 46.6 in March 2026, marking its second straight decline and nearly erasing all gains since August 2025. The Current Conditions Index dropped to 42.1 from 43.8, reflecting worsening views on both the national economy and company-specific situations. The Expectations Index fell to 48.8 from 50.4, dipping below 50 for the first time since November 2025, signaling negative outlooks for the next six months. This shift reflects growing uncertainty among industrial leaders, driven by persistent macroeconomic headwinds, high interest rates, and geopolitical risks, particularly the Middle East conflict affecting global commodity markets and trade. Businesses are turning more cautious, with broader economic sentiment outweighing any remaining resilience in company-level forecasts.