Brazil Trade Surplus Misses Forecasts

Brazil's trade surplus widened 1.0% year-on-year to $7.07 billion in July 2026, below market expectations of an $8.4 billion surplus. Exports rose 6.2% to $34.12 billion. Agricultural exports increased 9.3%, led by live animals (29.9%), soybeans (17.4%), and raw cotton (27.2%). Shipments from extractive industries advanced 10.8%, supported by other crude minerals (55.5%), base metal ores and concentrates (101.5%), and crude petroleum (23.8%). Manufacturing exports rose 2.4%, boosted by pulp (30.8%), fuel oils excluding crude (63.0%), and vegetable fats and oils (149.5%). Meanwhile, imports climbed 7.6% to $27.05 billion, driven by a 31.4% increase in extractive industry purchases and a 6.9% rise in manufacturing imports, led by pharmaceuticals (44.1%), fuel oils (31.4%), and data processing equipment (216.7%).

Brazil’s trade surplus widened to USD 9.76 billion in June 2026 from USD 5.86 billion a year earlier, though it fell short of market expectations for a USD 9.9 billion surplus. Exports jumped 24.9% year-on-year to USD 36.28 billion, driven by strong gains in extractive industries (58.4%), alongside growth in manufacturing (14.7%) and agriculture (18.0%). Shipments to China rose 24.4%, while exports to the European Union and the US increased 43.0% and 3.7%, respectively, although exports to Argentina fell 18.1%. Imports climbed 14.4% to USD 26.52 billion, supported by manufacturing (14.3%) and extractive industries (25.0%), with purchases from China rising 27.1% while imports from the US declined 12.3%. In the first half of 2026, exports increased 11.5% and imports 5.1%, lifting the cumulative trade surplus to USD 42.36 billion, up 40.3% from a year earlier.

Brazil’s trade surplus widened to $7.82 billion in May 2026, up 10.8% from a year earlier and above market expectations of $7.65 billion. Exports rose 6.6% year-on-year to $31.90 billion, driven by stronger shipments from agriculture (9.8%) and manufacturing (9.0%), which more than offset a 1.9% decline in extractive industries. Higher exports of corn, soybeans, cotton, beef, fuel oils, and gold supported the increase, while shipments of coffee, iron ore, crude oil, sugar, and cellulose fell. Imports increased 5.3% to $24.08 billion, mainly due to a 6.3% rise in manufacturing purchases, led by fuel oils, semiconductors, and passenger vehicles. Trade with China remained strong, with exports rising 9.5% and imports surging 24.2%, while exports to the EU increased 8.8%. In contrast, exports to the US fell 14.0% and shipments to Argentina dropped 21.7%. In January-May, exports rose 8.7% and imports increased 3.2% from a year earlier.