South Africa Factory Activity Returns to Growth: Absa

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in September 2026 from 45.8 in the previous month, returning to positive territory for the first time since May. New sales orders climbed to 50.8 from 40.3, while the business activity index also recovered to 49.3 after falling sharply to 40.2 in August. However, actual business activity remained just below the neutral 50 mark, while employment weakened and order backlogs remained subdued. Logistics bottlenecks persisted amid shipping delays at Durban Port, while input price pressures remained elevated. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained cautiously optimistic about the outlook, with the expected business conditions index for the next six months edging up to 55.3 from 54.7.

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell further to 45.8 in August 2026 from 46.8 in July, marking the third consecutive month of contraction in factory activity and the steepest since last December. Business activity plunged to 40.2, its lowest level this year, while new orders fell to 40.3, erasing July’s gains. The deterioration was largely domestic, reflecting subdued demand, weak consumer confidence and reduced spending on non-essential goods, while export sales provided some relief. The labour market also remained under pressure, but the pace of factory job losses slowed. Despite the downturn, manufacturers became more confident about the future, with the index measuring six-month expectations rising to 54.7 from 49.3 and returning above the neutral threshold. The stronger outlook suggests firms see the current weakness as temporary, although weak orders and production remain significant near-term headwinds.

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 46.8 in July 2026 from 47.3 in June, contracting for a second consecutive month. Domestic demand and production continued to recover, with shorter supplier delivery times. Inventories declined further as firms remain uncertain that strong demand will persist, although some firms could be delaying purchases expecting lower input costs in the future. Input cost pressures remain elevated relative to the pre-war period, with increases in diesel prices expected to put renewed pressures on costs. Nevertheless, peak inflationary pressures have likely passed, barring any further upsurge in global energy costs. Looking ahead, firms expect business conditions to weaken as renewed tensions in the Middle East push up oil prices, making firms questions the durability of recent improvements in activity.