South Africa Leading Index Ease Slightly

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa declined by 1.8% month-on-month in April 2026, slipping from a downwardly revised 1.5% increase in the previous month. The latest reading marked the first month of contraction since September last year, driven largely by a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Overall, 8 out of the 10 available component time series declined and outweighed increases in the volume of domestic orders received in the manufacturing sector and the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident business cycle indicator remained unchanged in March 2026, due to an increase in the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, which was partially offset by a decrease in the industrial production index.

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa climbed by 2.4% month-on-month in March 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous month. The latest figure marked the strongest expansion since May 2021, as six of the seven" available components contributed positively, led by an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a widening of the interest rate spread. Meanwhile, the main negative contributions came from a deterioration in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident indicator declined by 0.1% in February 2026, driven by decrease in the utilization of production capacity in the manufacturing sector and industrial production index. In contrast, the lagging indicator edged up by 0.6% in February.

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa grew 0.5% month-over-month in February 2026, easing from an upwardly revised 0.6% in the previous month. Growth in seven of the ten available component series outweighed declines in the remaining three. The strongest positive contributions came from a rise in the number of residential building plans approved and an increase in the country’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index. However, these gains were partly offset by a decline in the volume of domestic manufacturing orders and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisements. At the same time, the composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0.3% in January 2026, supported by higher industrial production and a rise in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. In contrast, the composite lagging business cycle indicator fell by 0.3% in January.