South Africa Leading Index Drops in September

2025-11-25 07:15 By Judith Sib-at 1 min. read

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 1.2% month-on-month in September 2025, reversing a 1.6% rise in August.

This was the first decline since May and the steepest since December 2024, as decreases in four of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in the remaining three.

The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales.

In contrast, the main positive contributors were an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 money supply.

Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.1% in August, helped by gains in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales.

The lagging indicator dropped by 0.9% in August.



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