South Africa Leading Index Drops in September

2025-11-25 07:15 By Judith Sib-at 1 min. read

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 1.2% month-on-month in September 2025, reversing a 1.6% rise in August.

This was the first decline since May and the steepest since December 2024, as decreases in four of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in the remaining three.

The largest negative contributions came from a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales.

In contrast, the main positive contributors were an increase in South Africa’s US-dollar-denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 money supply.

Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.1% in August, helped by gains in the industrial production index and the real value of wholesale, retail and motor trade sales.

The lagging indicator dropped by 0.9% in August.



News Stream
South Africa Leading Index Edges Down
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa edged down to 0.5% month-over-month in February 2026, from an upwardly revised 0.6% in the previous month. Growth in seven of the ten available component series outweighed declines in the remaining three. The strongest positive contributions came from a rise in the number of residential building plans approved and an increase in the country’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index. However, these gains were partly offset by a decline in the volume of domestic manufacturing orders and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisements. At the same time, the composite coincident business cycle indicator increased by 0.3% in January 2026, supported by higher industrial production and a rise in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. In contrast, the composite lagging business cycle indicator fell by 0.3% in January.
2026-04-28
South Africa Leading Index Rebounds
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2026, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.4% fall in December. Growth in five of the indicator’s ten available components outweighed declines in the remaining five, with the largest positive contributors coming from the country’s US-dollar export commodity price index and a rebound in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. Conversely, the largest drags came from a slowdown in the six-month growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales and a decline in domestic manufacturing orders. Meanwhile, the composite coincident business cycle indicator fell 0.2% in December 2025, reflecting weaker industrial production and a drop in the real value of wholesale, retail, and motor trade sales. The composite lagging indicator edged up 0.1% in December.
2026-03-24
South Africa Leading Index Drops in December
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa decreased by 1% month-on-month in December 2025, reversing a 1.4% increase in the previous month. This marked the first decline since September, as decreases in five of the seven available component time series outweighed increases in South Africa’s US-dollar denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold. The main negative contributors were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved. Meanwhile, the composite coincident indicator fell by 0.2% in December, slipping from a 0.3% rise in the prior period, due to decreases in the industrial production index and the utilisation of production capacity in the manufacturing sector. The lagging indicator declined by 0.4% in the same month.
2026-02-24