South Africa Factory Output Posts Surprise Decline

Manufacturing output in South Africa fell by 1% year-on-year in November 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.4% rise in October and against analysts' forecast of a 0.2% increase. This marked the first decline in factory activity since August, led by wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-7.9%); basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-2.5%) and motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-4.4%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, output shrank by 1.1% in November, after a 1% rise in the previous month. Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by 0.6% in the three months ended November 2025 compared with the previous three months.

Manufacturing output in South Africa rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, a marked deceleration from the upwardly revised 1% increase in September. Output growth slowed significantly for motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (1.6% vs 7.6% in September); food and beverages (1.9% vs 4.2%) and furniture and other manufacturing (0.8% vs 5%). At the same time, production declines for wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-6.9% vs -5.3%) and glass and non-metallic mineral products (-5.8% vs 0.6%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, factory output increased by 1%, after a revised 0.5% rise in the previous month.

Manufacturing output in South Africa rose by 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, recovering from a 1.5% decrease in the prior month and better than analysts' estimates of 0.3% fall. This marked the first month of industrial growth, albeit very mild, following two consecutive months of decline. The motor vehicles, parts and accessories, and other transport equipment (+7.6%, adding 0.5 points) and the food and beverages divisions (+1.8%, adding 0.5 points) were the biggest positive contributors. Declines in electrical machinery (-7.3%); wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-5.3%) and basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-1.2%) partly offset the overall increase. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, factory output shrank by 0.5%, after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in the previous month. Manufacturing production rose by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the second quarter of 2025.