South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Inches Up

2026-06-30 13:58 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 8.44%, a near one-week high, after latest data showed inflation expectations rose sharply in the second quarter.

Average headline inflation expectations for 2026 rose to 4.4% from 3.6% in the first quarter.

Expectations also increased further out, with respondents now seeing inflation at 4.2% in 2027, 3.9% in 2028 and 4.1% over the next five years, all above the SARB’s 3% target.

However, the survey was conducted between May 18 and June 4, capturing respondents at the height of the US-Iran energy shock, when fuel prices were surging and oil risks dominated inflation forecasts.

Since then, a 60-day ceasefire reopening the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global energy costs lower and paved the way for falling domestic fuel prices.

The South African Reserve Bank has warned rising expectations could stoke price pressures, saying action may be needed to anchor inflation around 3%.

The next policy decision is scheduled for July 23rd.



News Stream
South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Inches Up
South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 8.44%, a near one-week high, after latest data showed inflation expectations rose sharply in the second quarter. Average headline inflation expectations for 2026 rose to 4.4% from 3.6% in the first quarter. Expectations also increased further out, with respondents now seeing inflation at 4.2% in 2027, 3.9% in 2028 and 4.1% over the next five years, all above the SARB’s 3% target. However, the survey was conducted between May 18 and June 4, capturing respondents at the height of the US-Iran energy shock, when fuel prices were surging and oil risks dominated inflation forecasts. Since then, a 60-day ceasefire reopening the Strait of Hormuz has pushed global energy costs lower and paved the way for falling domestic fuel prices. The South African Reserve Bank has warned rising expectations could stoke price pressures, saying action may be needed to anchor inflation around 3%. The next policy decision is scheduled for July 23rd.
2026-06-30
South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Hovers at 2-Week Low
South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield was around 8.36%, close to the lowest since mid-June, as investors monitored fresh developments in the Middle East, while also eyeing upcoming key domestic data. The US and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow commercial vessels to freely pass through the Strait of Hormuz after weekend clashes threatened to derail efforts to reach a broader peace agreement. Oil prices rose again in response, but remained around pre-conflict levels, amid improved traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for a definitive resolution to the war. Domestically, attention turns to a slate of economic data releases, with the Q2 inflation expectations survey in focus for further clues on inflation dynamics and policy direction ahead of the SARB’s rate decision next month. Meanwhile, the central bank will publish its June quarterly bulletin, providing insight into South Africa's economic performance in the first quarter.
2026-06-29
South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield at Near 2-Week Low
South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield eased toward 8.35%, the lowest since mid-June, as progress in US-Iran negotiations and evidence of increased shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz helped to alleviate inflation concerns. While volatility persists, sentiment has shifted toward expectations the conflict is nearing an end as reflected in the pullback in oil prices. This has supported the domestic inflation outlook and led investors to scale back tightening bets. However, risks to the inflation outlook remain. SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago highlighted risks extending beyond fuel costs, noting that higher fertilizer prices could spill over into food inflation during the harvest in the second half of the year. South Africa also faces potential disruption from El Niño related drought conditions. Moreover, utility tariffs including electricity, water and sanitation, refuse removal and property rates are set to increase from July 1, 2026.
2026-06-26