South African Economy Sees Modest Growth in Q4

The South African economy grew by 0.5% qoq in Q1 2026, up from a 0.4% rise in Q4 and slightly above forecasts of 0.3%, despite turbulence late in the period from the Iran war. This marked the sixth straight quarter of expansion and the strongest performance since Q2 2025, as nine of the ten industries registered growth. The finance, real estate and business services sector was the main contributor, rising 0.9%, followed by agriculture (+3.9%), trade (+0.7%) and transport (0.7%). Manufacturing, however, was the biggest drag, falling by 0.8%. From the demand side, net external demand contributed significantly (+0.9 percentage points), as exports rose 0.5% while imports fell 2.6%. Meanwhile, household consumption edged up 0.1% and government spending rose 0.6%, while fixed investment declined 1.1%. Changes in inventories subtracted 0.3 percentage points. On an annual basis, the GDP rose by 1.9% in Q1, accelerating from a 0.8% advance in Q4 and slightly above estimates of a 1.8% growth.

The South African economy rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.3% growth in Q3 and slightly above analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. This marked the fifth straight quarter of expansion, with growth recorded in five of the ten industries. The finance sector led the gains, rising 1.4% and contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Trade increased 0.9% and personal services grew 0.4%. In contrast, manufacturing was the largest drag, falling 0.6%. From the demand side, household consumption (+1.2%), government spending (+0.5%) and fixed investment (1.3%) helped sustain positive momentum. However, inventories (-0.5 points) and net exports (-0.3 points) weighed on GDP, with exports down 0.6% and imports up 0.5%. On an annual basis, the economy grew 0.8% in Q4, down from a 2.1% increase in Q3 and below forecasts of 1.8%. For the full year 2025, GDP rose 1.1%, the strongest growth since 2022, following a revised increase of 0.5% in 2024.

The South African economy advanced by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.9% growth in the prior period and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion. Nine out of ten industries registered growth, with trade (+1% vs +1.4% in Q2) contributing the most, alongside mining (+2.3% vs +3.5%), agriculture (+1.1% vs +2.5%) and finance, real estate and business services (+0.3% vs +0.7%). Conversely, the utilities sector contracted (-2.5% vs 0.2%). From the demand perspective, household consumption (+0.7% vs +1%), government spending (+0.3% vs +0.9%) and fixed investment (+1.6% vs -1.6%) kept growth supported. On the other hand, changes in inventories subtracted 0.1 percentage point. Net trade also contributed negatively to expenditure on GDP, as the 0.7% rise in exports was outpaced by a 2.2% increase in imports. On a yearly basis, the GDP expanded by 2.1% in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022, accelerating from the upwardly revised 0.9% in Q2.