South African Economy Sees Modest Growth in Q4

The South African economy rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.3% growth in Q3 and slightly above analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. This marked the fifth straight quarter of expansion, with growth recorded in five of the ten industries. The finance sector led the gains, rising 1.4% and contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP. Trade increased 0.9% and personal services grew 0.4%. In contrast, manufacturing was the largest drag, falling 0.6%. From the demand side, household consumption (+1.2%), government spending (+0.5%) and fixed investment (1.3%) helped sustain positive momentum. However, inventories (-0.5 points) and net exports (-0.3 points) weighed on GDP, with exports down 0.6% and imports up 0.5%. On an annual basis, the economy grew 0.8% in Q4, down from a 2.1% increase in Q3 and below forecasts of 1.8%. For the full year 2025, GDP rose 1.1%, the strongest growth since 2022, following a revised increase of 0.5% in 2024.

The South African economy advanced by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.9% growth in the prior period and marking the fourth consecutive quarter of expansion. Nine out of ten industries registered growth, with trade (+1% vs +1.4% in Q2) contributing the most, alongside mining (+2.3% vs +3.5%), agriculture (+1.1% vs +2.5%) and finance, real estate and business services (+0.3% vs +0.7%). Conversely, the utilities sector contracted (-2.5% vs 0.2%). From the demand perspective, household consumption (+0.7% vs +1%), government spending (+0.3% vs +0.9%) and fixed investment (+1.6% vs -1.6%) kept growth supported. On the other hand, changes in inventories subtracted 0.1 percentage point. Net trade also contributed negatively to expenditure on GDP, as the 0.7% rise in exports was outpaced by a 2.2% increase in imports. On a yearly basis, the GDP expanded by 2.1% in Q3, the fastest expansion since Q3 2022, accelerating from the upwardly revised 0.9% in Q2.

The South African economy grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, improving on a minimal 0.1% growth in Q1 and beating forecasts of 0.5%. Despite the modest scale, this represents the strongest quarterly growth since Q2 2023. Eight out of ten industries registered growth, with manufacturing (+1.8%) contributing the most, followed by mining (+3.7%) and trade (+1.7%). The agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector saw a 2.5% rise during the period, thanks to stronger activity in both horticulture and animal products. On the expenditure side, stronger household consumption (+0.8%) and government spending (+0.7%) helped sustain positive momentum. However, fixed investment declined by 1.4%, while net exports dragged on growth as exports dropped 3.1% and imports fell by only 2.1%. On a yearly basis, the GDP expanded by 0.6% in Q2, down from a 0.8% growth in the previous three-month period. Considering the first half of the year, the South African economy advanced by 0.7%.