South Africa Consumer Confidence Slips in Q2

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa plummeted to -19 in Q2 2026 from -7 in the previous period, marking the lowest since Q1 2025. The decline reflected weaker spending intentions as soaring fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict strained household budgets, especially among middle- and high-income groups. All three sub-indices declined, with the economic outlook sub-index slipping to -32 points from -14, while the household finances index dropped to zero from 12. FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya also noted some impact from the recent rate hike by the South African Reserve Bank, which could further weigh on sentiment in coming months.

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa edged up to -7 in Q1 2026, the second consecutive quarterly increase, from -9 in the previous period. This was the highest reading since Q4 2024, supported by lower interest rates, soaring stock prices and a stronger currency. The survey, which was conducted before the Middle East conflict began in late February, showed improved confidence among high-income households. In contrast, lower-income groups grew more pessimistic due to weak employment growth in late 2025 and stricter social grant compliance rules. "Unfortunately, the ripple effects from the Iranian war may well see a U-turn in high- and middle-income confidence during the second quarter," said FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya.

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa rose to -9 in Q4 2025, marking a one-year high, up from -13 in the previous period, likely influenced by holiday-season spending. All three sub-indices, including the economic outlook, household financial outlook, and timing for durable goods purchases, improved, with the strongest gain in the latter, which reached a six-year high. “Apart from a further interest rate cut and an appreciation in the rand exchange rate, a number of other positive developments likely buoyed consumer sentiment towards the end of the year,” FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya said. Among these were lower petrol prices, slowing food inflation, and an increase in Q3 employment.