South Africa Private Sector Contracts Again

The S&P Global South Africa PMI rose to 50.0 in January 2026 from 47.7 in December, signaling a stabilization in private-sector business conditions after a weak fourth quarter. Output and new orders were broadly unchanged, as modest improvements in domestic demand were offset by continued weakness in services and falling export orders. Purchasing activity increased slightly on firmer demand momentum, while inventories declined as supplier delivery times lengthened for the first time in ten months due to port delays and weaker supplier performance. Backlogs continued to fall, and employment edged lower as firms reduced staff or paused hiring. On prices, input cost inflation slowed to a three-month low, allowing selling price increases to soften to their weakest pace since October. Despite challenges, business confidence stayed relatively upbeat, supported by expectations of stronger demand, improved energy supply, rising tourism, and better domestic economic conditions.

The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 47.7 in December 2025 from 49.0 in November, marking the fastest contraction since January. Business activity dropped sharply amid weaker client demand and challenging economic conditions, with output falling at the steepest pace in 11 months. New orders declined again, led by reduced household spending, pullbacks in business orders, and softer export demand while backlogs fell at the fastest rate in over five years. Firms responded by cutting purchasing activity and reducing input stocks, although employment edged higher for a third straight month due to short-term hiring. Supplier delivery times extended its record streak. Cost pressures eased slightly as input prices rose at a slower pace, prompting a softer increase in selling prices. Despite current weakness, business confidence remained elevated, with firms expecting a recovery in activity over the year ahead on hopes of stronger demand and new projects.

The S&P Global South Africa PMI rose to 49.0 in November from 48.8 in October, signaling a second consecutive month of contraction. Output and new business fell at similar rates to the previous month, reflecting weak domestic demand and a shortage of new projects. Despite a renewed rise in international sales, total new business declined, with industry and construction seeing the sharpest drops. Cost pressures also intensified, as firms reported the fastest increase in input costs in over a year, driven by higher purchase prices and rising wages. This prompted companies to raise selling prices at the quickest pace since February. Supplier delivery times improved for an eighth consecutive month, though the pace of improvement moderated from October’s record. Employment rose slightly, while purchasing activity stabilized. Business confidence strengthened to a 12-month high, with 46% of firms expecting higher output in the year ahead.