New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Climbs to 2.53%

2026-05-13 03:16 By Kyrie Dichosa 1 min. read

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.53% over the next two years in Q2 2026, up from 2.37% in the previous period, marking the highest reading since Q4 2023.

This comes as rising fuel prices are expected to drive broader inflation pressures across the economy.

Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also climbed to 3.41%, the highest in over two years, up from 2.59% in Q1.

In contrast, longer-term expectations eased, with five-year inflation forecasts falling to 2.22% from 2.31%, and ten-year expectations declining to 2.19% from 2.30%.

In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.34% from 2.25% by the end of the June quarter, and to increase further to 3.01% over the next year.

The update comes ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026.



News Stream
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Climbs to 2.53%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.53% over the next two years in Q2 2026, up from 2.37% in the previous period, marking the highest reading since Q4 2023. This comes as rising fuel prices are expected to drive broader inflation pressures across the economy. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations also climbed to 3.41%, the highest in over two years, up from 2.59% in Q1. In contrast, longer-term expectations eased, with five-year inflation forecasts falling to 2.22% from 2.31%, and ten-year expectations declining to 2.19% from 2.30%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to rise to 2.34% from 2.25% by the end of the June quarter, and to increase further to 3.01% over the next year. The update comes ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy decision in May 2026.
2026-05-13
New Zealand Q1 Inflation Outlook Highest in 2 Years
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.37% for the next two years in Q1 2026, the highest reading since Q1 2024 and up from 2.28% in the previous quarter. One-year inflation expectations also rose to 2.59% from 2.39%, marking the highest in seven quarters. Additionally, longer-term projections showed that five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 2.31% from 2.22%, and ten year expectations went up to 2.3% from 2.18%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of March 2026, unchanged from the previous three-month period. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.25% on 26 November 2025.
2026-02-13
New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Outlook Steady at 2.28%
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025.
2025-11-11