New Zealand Inflation Eases in Q3

New Zealand’s annual inflation rate eased to 3.7% in the third quarter of 2026 from 4.1% in the previous quarter, slightly below expectations of 3.8% but remaining above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1–3% target range. Petrol was the largest upward contributor to annual inflation, rising 19.1% amid higher international oil and fuel prices linked to conflicts in the Middle East. The cost of constructing new housing increased 3.2%, driven by higher material, subcontractor, labour and fuel costs. Electricity prices rose 9.3%, international airfares increased 12.5%, and local authority rates and payments climbed 6.2%. The latter are measured annually in the September quarter and have been a major driver of inflation in recent years. On a quarterly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7%, slowing from a 1.5% increase in the second quarter.

Statistics New Zealand will begin publishing a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July 2027, responding to strong demand from financial markets and the wider public for more timely inflation data. The new monthly indicator is expected to improve inflation monitoring and provide the Reserve Bank of New Zealand with a clearer, more up-to-date picture of price pressures, helping policymakers make better-informed interest rate decisions amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. More frequent inflation data should reduce uncertainty and improve the timing and precision of policy responses. The monthly CPI will initially complement, rather than replace, the existing quarterly CPI, allowing both measures to be published in parallel.

Annual inflation in New Zealand accelerated to 4.1% in Q2 2026, from 3.1% in Q1, and was above forecasts of 4.0%, surpassing the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range, marking the highest rate since Q4 2023. The largest contributor was the transport group, where prices jumped 10.6% (vs 3.3% in Q1), mainly driven by petrol (up 27.5%) and other vehicle fuels and lubricants (up 71.0%). The second-largest contributor was the housing and household utilities group, where prices rose 3.6% (vs 3.4% in Q1), with electricity prices rising 12.0%. Meanwhile, faster inflation was also seen in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.8% vs 2.3%), clothing (2.5% vs. 1.3%), household contents (0.3% vs 0.0%), and communication (6.8% vs 4.6%), while inflation moderated for food (2.8% vs 4.0%), health (4.0% vs 4.1%), and miscellaneous goods and services (1.0% vs 2.2%). Quarterly, the CPI rose 1.5% in Q2, accelerating from a 0.9% increase in Q1, above estimates of 1.4% and marking the highest level since Q3 2023.