New Zealand GDP Growth Misses Forecasts

New Zealand’s economy remains closely tied to Middle East developments, Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman said, adding that a quicker resolution to the conflict could unlock stronger growth this year. After holding the cash rate at 2.25%, she noted that earlier cuts continue to filter through, supporting activity. With early-year momentum, the economy is well-positioned, if external risks ease. Data showed a pickup in January and February, though tensions weighed on sentiment in March and are expected to dampen April. Breman stressed that uncertainty remains high, with the conflict’s duration and severity the key swing factor. Beyond oil prices, supply disruptions will shape near-term growth and inflation. A swift de-escalation could lower fuel costs and boost confidence, while a prolonged conflict risks sustaining strains and elevated inflation. The RBNZ’s pause reflects this balance, giving policymakers time to assess global risks while keeping a bias to act if pressures intensify.

The economy of New Zealand expanded 0.2% on quarter in Q4 2025, slowing from a 0.9% rise in Q3 but remaining below forecasts of 0.4%. Rental, hiring, and real estate services rose 0.8% and made the largest upward contribution to growth, driven by rental and hiring services and non-residential property operators. Also, retail trade and accommodation was up 1.3%, driven by accommodation and pharmaceutical retailing. On the other hand, construction was the largest downward contributor, down 1.4%. On the expenditure side, exports were up 0.1%, with increases seen in goods and services. Gross fixed capital formation fell 2.2%, as businesses invested less in physical fixed assets, including plant, machinery, and equipment and transport equipment, despite a rise in imports of intermediate goods. Household consumption expenditure edged down 0.1%. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3%, maintaining the same growth rate seen in Q3.

The economy of New Zealand expanded 1.1% on quarter in Q3 2025, rebounding from a 1% contraction in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.9%. Business services rose 1.6% and made the largest upward contribution to growth, driven by a 2.1% rise in professional, scientific, and technical services, such as computer system design and related services. Also, manufacturing was up 2.2%, driven by food, beverage, and tobacco. On the other hand, information media and telecommunications was the largest downward contributor, down 2.1%. On the expenditure side, exports were up 3.3%, with increases seen in travel services, dairy, and insurance. Gross fixed capital formation rose 3.2%, as businesses invested more in physical fixed assets, including transport equipment and plant, machinery, and equipment, supported by imports of related capital goods and motor vehicles. Household consumption expenditure edged up 0.1%. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3%, also rebounding from a 1.1% fall in Q2.