New Zealand GDP Growth Misses Forecasts

The economy of New Zealand expanded 0.2% on quarter in Q4 2025, slowing from a 0.9% rise in Q3 but remaining below forecasts of 0.4%. Rental, hiring, and real estate services rose 0.8% and made the largest upward contribution to growth, driven by rental and hiring services and non-residential property operators. Also, retail trade and accommodation was up 1.3%, driven by accommodation and pharmaceutical retailing. On the other hand, construction was the largest downward contributor, down 1.4%. On the expenditure side, exports were up 0.1%, with increases seen in goods and services. Gross fixed capital formation fell 2.2%, as businesses invested less in physical fixed assets, including plant, machinery, and equipment and transport equipment, despite a rise in imports of intermediate goods. Household consumption expenditure edged down 0.1%. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3%, maintaining the same growth rate seen in Q3.

The economy of New Zealand expanded 1.1% on quarter in Q3 2025, rebounding from a 1% contraction in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.9%. Business services rose 1.6% and made the largest upward contribution to growth, driven by a 2.1% rise in professional, scientific, and technical services, such as computer system design and related services. Also, manufacturing was up 2.2%, driven by food, beverage, and tobacco. On the other hand, information media and telecommunications was the largest downward contributor, down 2.1%. On the expenditure side, exports were up 3.3%, with increases seen in travel services, dairy, and insurance. Gross fixed capital formation rose 3.2%, as businesses invested more in physical fixed assets, including transport equipment and plant, machinery, and equipment, supported by imports of related capital goods and motor vehicles. Household consumption expenditure edged up 0.1%. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3%, also rebounding from a 1.1% fall in Q2.

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% decline. This downturn ended two straight quarters of growth that followed back-to-back contractions. By industry, primary output fell 0.3% (vs. +0.5% in Q1), while goods-producing industries dropped (-3.5% vs. +2.4% in Q1), led by steep declines in mining (-4.1% vs. +1%) and manufacturing (-2.4% vs. +0.1%). The services sector was broadly flat, with notable declines in transport, postal and warehousing (-0.6% vs. +0.6%), healthcare and social assistance (-0.7% vs. +1.7%), and financial and insurance services (-0.5% vs. -0.5%). In contrast, wholesale trade (+1.4% vs. -0.4%), information media and telecommunications (+1.8% vs. -0.8%), and rental, hiring and real estate services (+0.7% vs. +0.3%) posted gains. On an annual basis, GDP contracted 0.6% in Q2, matching the pace of decline in the first quarter.