New Zealand Dollar Steady

The New Zealand dollar steadied near $0.602 after rebounding from a two-week low in the previous session, as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank’s policy outlook. Data released last week showed mixed results, as unemployment unexpectedly climbed to a decade high even as employment growth exceeded forecasts, reinforcing the view that any rate increase is unlikely in the near term. Still, inflation remains above target and economic growth has shown signs of firming, keeping expectations of an eventual policy rate hike intact. Traders currently see a rate increase as more likely by October, with the implied probability of a September move at around 70%, although official guidance continues to point to an initial tightening around mid-2027. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is set to meet this month for its first policy decision under Governor Anna Breman, a meeting widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.597 but stayed close to its lowest level in almost two weeks, amid reduced bets for an imminent rate hike from the Reserve Bank. A mixed jobs report earlier in the week, showing an unexpected rise in unemployment to a decade high, while employment increased more than forecast, prompted markets to push back expectations for a near-term rate hike. Traders are not fully pricing in an increase until October, while the implied probability of a September move stands at about 70%. The RBNZ is set to meet later this month in what will be the first meeting under its new governor, Anna Breman, and policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The central bank will also release updated economic and interest-rate projections, with markets closely watching whether it maintains its guidance for a first rate increase around mid-2027. For the week, the kiwi has fallen about 1%, on track to snap a three-week winning streak.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.599, moving away from a near seven-month high, as mixed labor market data reinforced views that the Reserve Bank may keep interest rates unchanged for now. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4% in the fourth quarter, its highest level since 2015, slightly above both the previous reading and market forecasts of 5.3%. However, employment rose by 0.5% over the quarter, stronger than the estimated 0.3% growth. Overall, the figures were broadly in line with the RBNZ’s projections and are unlikely to prompt an immediate shift in monetary policy. As a result, markets reduced bets for a near-term rate hike, with expectations for a move pushed back from September to October. Some economists expect the first increase by December, while others see it occurring in 2027. Meanwhile, a strong dairy auction offered some support, helping to limit deeper losses for the kiwi.