New Zealand Business Confidence Improves

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index climbed to 10.0 in May from -10.0 in the previous month, marking a notable rebound in business sentiment, though still subdued compared with levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Firms’ own activity outlook strengthened (25.6 vs 19.6 in April), while past activity eased slightly (14.8 vs 16.9). Several forward indicators recovered, including export intentions (11.5 vs 1.1), profit expectations (2.0 vs -13.3), investment intentions (5.8 vs 3.3), and employment intentions (3.4 vs -2.7). Meanwhile, wage growth expectations were steady (2.48% vs 2.41%). Pricing intentions (56.7 vs 57.7) and cost pressures (90.4 vs 90.4) were little changed. Credit availability rose modestly (-17.5 vs -21.5), while inflation expectations moderated slightly (3.63% vs 3.81%). Sector sentiment was mixed, with residential construction flat (at 11.8) but commercial construction weakening sharply (13.5 vs 27.0).

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index slumped to -10.6 in April 2026 from 32.5 in the previous month, marking the first negative reading since August 2023, as the Middle East conflict pressured sentiment. Firms’ own activity outlook weakened sharply (19.6 vs 39.3 in March), while past activity was little changed (16.9 vs 17.5). Forward indicators deteriorated: export intentions (1.1 vs 15.2), profit expectations (-13.3 vs 19.7), and investment intentions (3.3 vs 14.5). Employment intentions turned negative (-2.7 vs 9.4) and wage growth expectations eased (2.41% vs 2.74%). Pricing intentions softened (57.7 vs 60.3), but cost pressures accelerated (90.4 vs 84.7). Credit availability plunged (-21.5 vs -3.3), signaling a significant tightening in financial conditions, while inflation expectations rose to their highest since February 2024 (3.81% vs 3.08%). Sector sentiment also weakened, including residential construction (11.8 vs 35.3) and commercial construction (27.0 vs 42.1).

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index slumped to 32.5 in March 2026 from 59.2 in the previous month, marking the weakest reading since July 2024, as companies grew more cautious over potential fallout from the Middle East shock. Firms’ own activity outlook plummeted (39.3 vs 52.6 in February), and past activity weakened (17.5 vs 23.4). Forward-looking indicators deteriorated broadly: export intentions (15.2 vs 19.0), profit expectations (19.7 vs 31.8), and investment intentions (14.5 vs 24.8). Also, employment intentions slid (9.4 vs 22.3) and wage growth expectations eased (2.74% vs 3.01%). Pricing intentions rose (60.3 vs 53.3), while cost pressures moderated slightly (84.7 vs 79.4). Credit availability turned negative (-3.3 vs 7.5), highlighting tighter financial conditions, and inflation expectations edged up (3.08% vs 2.93%). Sector sentiment also softened, including residential construction intention (35.3 vs 41.4) and commercial construction (42.1 vs 45.6).