New Zealand Consumer Mood Rises from Near 3-Year Low

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased to 86.5 in May 2026 from 80.3 in April, which was the lowest level since May 2023. The index has risen 6 points over the previous month but is still down 21 points from its January peak. The share of households seeing it as a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, gained 5 points to -20. Two-year inflation expectations eased to 5.3% from 6.6%, while house price expectations dropped 0.7 percentage points to 2.6%. The future conditions index rose to 92.7 from 85.9, while the current conditions index climbed 5 points to 77.2. Assessments of current personal finances also improved (-25% vs -31%), due to easing petrol prices. Looking ahead, a net 12% of respondents expected to be better off this time next year, up 9 points from the previous month. Economic expectations for the year ahead also improved, rising 12 points to -36%, while the five-year outlook fell 1 point to +2%.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped to 80.3 in April 2026 from 91.3 in March, marking the lowest level since May 2023. The index has fallen 20 points over the past two months since the start of the Middle East war that drove energy prices sharply higher. The share of households seeing it as a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, declined 11 points to -25, the lowest since September 2024. The future conditions index dropped to a two-year low (85.9 vs 96.7) and the current conditions index fell to its lowest since October 2023 (71.9 vs 83.1). Assessments of current personal finances also deteriorated (-31% vs -20%), reaching the weakest since mid-2008. Only a net 3% of respondents see their financial situation to be better a year from now. Economic expectations for the year ahead fell another 23 points to -48%, the lowest in three years, while the 5-year-ahead outlook dropped 2 points to +3%. 2-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.6% from 5.7%.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence decreased to 91.3 in March 2026 from 100.1 in February, reflecting a U-turn in response to the uncertainty brought about by the Middle East conflict. The share of households seeing it as a good time to purchase a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 10 points to -14, solidly back in negative territory. The future conditions index fell to its October level (96.7 vs 106.9) and the current conditions index dropped to below its December level (83.1 vs 90.0). Assessments of current personal finances also declined (-20% vs -16%), indicating that the recent bump in the road is being felt through experience. A net 10% of respondents see their financial situation to be better a year from now. Expectations for the economy over the next year decreased 17 points to -25%, while the 5-year-ahead outlook fell 3 points to 5%. Lastly, house price inflation expectations lifted (3.8% vs 3.6%), while 2-year inflation expectations rose to 5.7% from 4.7%.