Retail Sales in Mexico increased 3.4 percent year-on-year in November of 2018, following a 3.0 percent gain in the previous month and above market expectations of a 3.25 percent rise. Considering the first eleven months of the year, retail trade went up 2.8 percent over a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.4 percent, after declining 1.0 percent in the prior month and beating market consensus of a 0.1 percent gain. Retail Sales YoY in Mexico averaged 2.72 percent from 2002 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 11.20 percent in November of 2016 and a record low of -6.60 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Mexico is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Mexico to stand at 3.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.