Mexico - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.90 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.7 percent
Inflation Rate 4.55 3.8 3.7 3.4 3 3.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6 percent
Balance of Trade -289.15 6200 8300 9500 8500 12500 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 46 46 46 47 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 19.54
18.77 19.25 19.75 20.26 22.44
Stock Market 45091.99
points
45498 44341 43215 42118 37999
Government Bond 10Y 7.65
percent
7.53 7.73 7.94 8.15 9.06
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10
percent
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7
GDP 1046.92
USD Billion
1170 1170 1170 1216 1260
GDP Constant Prices 18500051.00
MXN Million
18340477 18342391 18732743 18962552 19738728
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3688507.74
MXN Million
3783156 3768899 3777032 3780720 3979866
GDP per capita 9707.10
USD
9780 9780 9780 9810 9900
GDP per capita PPP 16831.10
USD
17760 17760 17760 18100 18350
GDP From Agriculture 564856.27
MXN Million
605983 491055 712514 578978 750777
GDP From Construction 1294645.00
MXN Million
1268144 1292185 1363336 1327011 1436550
GDP From Manufacturing 2868082.00
MXN Million
2895203 2938451 2962293 2939784 3121374
GDP From Mining 914464.00
MXN Million
962205 919622 922323 937326 971854
GDP From Public Administration 700814.40
MXN Million
722603 690945 742041 718335 781890
GDP From Services 11305021.43
MXN Million
11515067 11396927 12110575 11587647 12760937
GDP From Transport 1162121.00
MXN Million
1175495 1170621 1212116 1191174 1277209
GDP From Utilities 249595.00
MXN Million
274075 289356 272189 255835 286807
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.90
percent
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.7
Employed Persons 52876916.00
53000000 53400000 53600000 53738477 55000000
Unemployed Persons 1713857.00
1735376 1787022 2050000 1689603 22800000
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.00
percent
59.4 59.1 59.3 59.3 59.7
Labour Costs 85.00
Index Points
86.37 86.6 102 86.51 105
Productivity 109.10
Index Points
108 108 111 108 115
Wages 349.37
MXN/Day
354 352 356 382 397
Wages in Manufacturing 2.50
USD/Hour
2.4 2.5 3 2.3 3
Minimum Wages 88.36
MXN/Day
88.36 88.36 88.36 95.45 102
Population 123.52
Million
125 124 125 125 128
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Wages High Skilled 16700.00
MXN/Month
16200 16200 16200 17200 17800
Wages Low Skilled 5560.00
MXN/Month
5000 5000 5000 5650 5800
Living Wage Family 8260.00
MXN/Month
8360 8360 8360 8450 8450
Living Wage Individual 4470.00
MXN/Month
4470 4470 4470 4470 4470
Employment Rate 97.06
percent
97.3 97.5 97.7 98 98.8
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.55
percent
3.8 3.7 3.4 3 3.1
Inflation Rate Mom -0.34
percent
-0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 131.99
Index Points
131 133 135 136 144
Core Consumer Prices 126.77
Index Points
128 129 131 131 142
Core Inflation Rate 3.70
percent
4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4
GDP Deflator 125.14
Index Points
126 127 128 131 143
Producer Prices 122.43
Index Points
122 123 123 121 124
Export Prices 111.05
Index Points
110 110 111 112 114
Import Prices 229.77
Index Points
227 227 227 228 228
Food Inflation 5.00
percent
4.8 4.5 4 4.6 4.8
CPI Transportation 103.69
Index Points
106 104 108 107 114
Inflation Expectations 3.98
Percent
3.99 3.98 3.97 3.97 3.97
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.50
percent
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6
Interbank Rate 7.84
percent
8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 6.59
Money Supply M0 1495940.70
MXN Million
1367055 1417308 1500000 1400941 1590000
Money Supply M1 4139774639.00
MXN Thousand
4105752940 4097241369 3675931375 4094357618 3810154560
Money Supply M2 8327326568.00
MXN Thousand
7244619293 6227461931 5701437405 5416830325 4963165658
Money Supply M3 9535928457.00
MXN Thousand
9421580224 9778661197 9529605021 9703316262 9630583502
Foreign Exchange Reserves 177601.00
USD Million
178300 178000 180000 178700 190000
Banks Balance Sheet 5994605.20
MXN Million
6112713 6119348 6117722 6113014 6042744
Loans to Private Sector 2352487758.00
MXN Thousand
2442531155 2454022371 2457782123 2457954406 2428784259
Deposit Interest Rate 1.29
percent
1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 0.04
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3540142092.00
MXN Thousand
3635693579 3638782638 3639034971 3639055584 3639057417
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -289.15
USD Million
6200 8300 9500 8500 12500
Exports 37180.56
USD Million
44000 47000 46000 46500 50000
Imports 37469.70
USD Million
37800 38700 36500 38000 37500
Current Account -6940.80
USD Million
-1200 900 1200 800 -1200
Current Account to GDP -1.60
percent
-3 -3 -3 -2.9 -2.8
External Debt 437366.80
MXN Billion
445000 440000 437000 442000 445500
Terms of Trade 48.33
Index Points
48.46 48.46 48.9 49.12 50
Foreign Direct Investment 9502.40
USD Million
6500 6700 7000 7400 7700
Remittances 7505.50
USD Million
7229 7287 7337 7293 7218
Tourism Revenues 2362556.54
USD Thousand
1876276 1683016 2120000 1735760 2300000
Tourist Arrivals 2376.44
Thousand
2300 1500 3020 1700 3360
Gold Reserves 120.20
Tonnes
120 120 120 120 120
Crude Oil Production 1919.00
BBL/D/1K
2120 1921 2070 1921 2100
Terrorism Index 3.29
4 4 4 2.53 4.1
Capital Flows -24.00
USD Million
-20 20 40 50 -30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent
46 46 46 47 47
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP
-2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -1.83 -2.4
Government Budget Value -24133.20
MXN Million
0 10000 0 -40537 60000
Government Spending 2179556.00
MXN Million
2168482 2111739 2231865 2234045 2351721
Government Revenues 406633.67
MXN Million
375000 385000 375000 410572 440000
Fiscal Expenditure 441840.00
MXN Million
375000 375000 375000 451109 380000
Military Expenditure 5532.60
USD Million
7337 7082 6827 6724 5320
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.00
Index Points
50.1 50.1 50.5 50.7 53
Manufacturing PMI 51.60
52.3 52.4 53 53.4 54
Industrial Production -3.70
percent
0.2 -1.18 1.4 -0.72 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2
Manufacturing Production -2.40
percent
1.8 2 2.2 2 2.6
Capacity Utilization 81.20
percent
81.32 81.14 81.07 81.16 81.15
Changes in Inventories 147134.06
MXN Million
159244 159521 158642 157972 157938
Total Vehicle Sales 74809.00
79066 78375 82000 78241 90000
Car Production 290.98
Thousand Units
350 360 350 331 360
Car Registrations 74809.00
86000 78375 82000 78241 85000
Leading Economic Index -0.80
percent
2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6
Internet Speed 7538.43
KBps
7316 7265 7174 7056 5736
IP Addresses 13309655.00
IP
13121569 13263779 13131627 13259427 13147818
Private Investment 4.80
percent
2.3 3 3.2 3.3 3.1
Steel Production 1790.00
Thousand Tonnes
1747 1747 1748 1749 1748
Mining Production -7.50
percent
-8 -7.6 -7.8 -8.5 -8
Competitiveness Index 4.44
Points
4.39 4.42 4.39 4.42 4.43
Competitiveness Rank 51.00
50 51 50 51 50
Ease of Doing Business 49.00
48 53 46 54 34
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
37 29 37 29 38
Corruption Rank 135.00
90 135 90 135 88
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 86.45
Index Points
86 86.3 86.5 85 86.4
Retail Sales MoM 0.90
percent
0.31 0.25 0.36 0.31 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.20
percent
-0.3 0.6 0.3 1 1
Consumer Spending 12689234.00
MXN Million
12146425 12430357 12993776 13006465 13691567
Personal Savings 20.60
percent
20.66 21.25 21.84 21.77 20.56
Consumer Credit 1323623.30
MXN Million
1287352 1287352 1287352 1287352 1287352
Private Sector Credit 4220835546.00
MXN Thousand
4268678719 4147143161 3994569656 3874881277 3921954540
Households Debt To Gdp 16.10
percent of GDP
15.73 15.65 15.59 15.53 15.4
Gasoline Prices 0.87
USD/Liter
0.82 0.77 0.73 0.69 0.48
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Construction Output -3.90
percent
-3.2 2.3 2.5 -1.4 2.6
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 9.23
percent
9.23 9.23 9.23 9 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent
7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65
percent
1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 27.19
mm
53 130 42.55 17.29 62.12
Temperature 16.74
celsius
23.24 24.48 18.09 16.7 21.08