Mexico - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.5 percent
Inflation Rate 4.65 4.4 4 3.5 3.3 3.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.75 7.75 8 8 8 8.25 percent
Balance of Trade -1587.00 1600 1000 2000 -400 2000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 46 46 47 47 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 18.97
 20.03 20.6 21.2 21.81 24.43
Stock Market 48704.63
points		 45793 44565 43370 42207 37860
Government Bond 10Y 7.75
percent		 7.85 8.06 8.28 8.51 9.49
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.10
percent		 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent		 2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4
GDP 1149.92
USD Billion		 1170 1170 1220 1220 1260
GDP Constant Prices 18500051.00
MXN Million		 18254805 18696155 18925552 18576309 19585195
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3849959.74
MXN Million		 3754915 3811705 3938509 3816396 3992960
GDP per capita 9946.16
USD		 9780 9780 10000 10000 11500
GDP per capita PPP 17336.47
USD		 17760 17760 18100 18100 18350
GDP From Agriculture 564856.27
MXN Million		 488710 711122 577848 613775 744938
GDP From Construction 1294645.00
MXN Million		 1286015 1360673 1324422 1284450 1425376
GDP From Manufacturing 2868082.00
MXN Million		 2924420 2956507 2934048 2932431 3097095
GDP From Mining 914464.00
MXN Million		 915231 920522 935497 974578 964294
GDP From Public Administration 700814.40
MXN Million		 687645 740592 716933 731895 775808
GDP From Services 11305021.43
MXN Million		 11342506 12086922 11565037 11663135 12661679
GDP From Transport 1162121.00
MXN Million		 1165031 1209749 1188850 1190610 1267275
GDP From Utilities 249595.00
MXN Million		 287974 271658 255336 277599 284576
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.20
percent		 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.5
Employed Persons 52876916.00
 53400000 53600000 53738477 53948922 55000000
Unemployed Persons 1713857.00
 1787022 2050000 1689603 1704971 22800000
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.10
percent		 59.1 59.3 59.3 59.2 59.7
Labour Costs 79.50
Index Points		 84 102 84.37 84.36 105
Productivity 108.30
Index Points		 108 111 108 108 115
Wages 353.83
MXN/Day		 352 356 382 373 397
Wages in Manufacturing 2.30
USD/Hour		 2.5 3 2.3 2.4 3
Minimum Wages 88.36
MXN/Day		 88.36 88.36 95.45 95.45 102
Population 123.52
Million		 124 124 125 125 126
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Wages High Skilled 16700.00
MXN/Month		 16200 16200 17000 17000 17800
Wages Low Skilled 5560.00
MXN/Month		 5000 5000 5600 5600 5800
Living Wage Family 8260.00
MXN/Month		 8360 8360 8450 8450 8500
Living Wage Individual 4470.00
MXN/Month		 4500 4500 4600 4600 4550
Employment Rate 96.78
percent		 97.5 97.7 98 98.2 98.8
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.65
percent		 4.4 4 3.5 3.3 3.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.39
percent		 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 132.28
Index Points		 134 136 137 137 144
Core Consumer Prices 127.39
Index Points		 129 131 132 132 142
Core Inflation Rate 3.62
percent		 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.63 4
GDP Deflator 125.14
Index Points		 127 128 131 132 143
Producer Prices 126.71
Index Points		 123 123 121 121 124
Export Prices 112.10
Index Points		 110 111 112 110 114
Import Prices 232.15
Index Points		 227 227 228 235 228
Food Inflation 3.24
percent		 4.5 4 4.6 4.8 4.8
CPI Transportation 104.66
Index Points		 104 108 108 108 115
Inflation Expectations 3.83
Percent		 3.76 3.74 3.75 3.75 3.75
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.75
percent		 7.75 8 8 8 8.25
Interbank Rate 7.93
percent		 7.93 8.18 8.18 8.18 8.43
Money Supply M0 1534342.00
MXN Million		 1528907 1500000 1528751 1528818 1590000
Money Supply M1 4154128582.00
MXN Thousand		 4160863026 3675931375 4159921752 4159885546 3810154560
Money Supply M2 8481294130.00
MXN Thousand		 8371305598 8355880987 8353473060 8354572460 8354482557
Money Supply M3 9605648136.00
MXN Thousand		 9483806968 9484347866 9482609748 9482598153 9482644079
Foreign Exchange Reserves 178410.00
USD Million		 178000 180000 178700 178900 190000
Banks Balance Sheet 5994605.20
MXN Million		 6331091 6447422 6563084 6678081 7792536
Loans to Private Sector 2352487758.00
MXN Thousand		 2581438750 2658326900 2734369545 2809575177 3517701352
Deposit Interest Rate 2.70
percent		 2.7 2.95 2.95 2.95 3.2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3569633881.00
MXN Thousand		 3565646095 3593185903 3592016413 3589928183 3590017908
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1587.00
USD Million		 1600 1000 2000 -400 2000
Exports 39177.09
USD Million		 39000 38500 38000 37500 40000
Imports 40763.85
USD Million		 37400 37500 36000 37900 38000
Current Account -6940.80
USD Million		 900 1200 800 1000 -1200
Current Account to GDP -1.60
percent		 -3 -3 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8
External Debt 453548.00
MXN Billion		 440000 437000 442000 438000 445500
Terms of Trade 48.29
Index Points		 48.46 48.9 49.12 47.05 50
Foreign Direct Investment 9502.40
USD Million		 6700 7000 7400 7500 7700
Remittances 7035.50
USD Million 		7560 7657 7296 7640 7784
Tourism Revenues 1686629.85
USD Thousand		 1818840 2120000 1815741 1816299 2300000
Tourist Arrivals 1783.60
Thousand		 1900 1750 1860 1970 3360
Gold Reserves 120.10
Tonnes		 120 120 120 120 120
Crude Oil Production 1888.00
BBL/D/1K		 1909 2070 1908 1908 2100
Terrorism Index 3.29
 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3
Capital Flows -24.00
USD Million		 20 40 50 80 -30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent		 46 46 47 47 47
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP		 -2.7 -2.7 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4
Government Budget Value -42702.30
MXN Million		 29300 -30000 -35000 -49402 -25000
Government Spending 2137555.10
MXN Million		 2092738 2217901 2186719 2186207 2323366
Government Revenues 377439.70
MXN Million		 385000 375000 408807 408193 440000
Fiscal Expenditure 414125.20
MXN Million		 375000 375000 456731 457595 380000
Military Expenditure 5532.60
USD Million		 5300 5300 5100 5100 4800
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 48.70
Index Points		 49 50.5 50.7 50.9 53
Manufacturing PMI 52.10
 49.6 52 52.4 52.6 54
Industrial Production 0.30
percent		 1.43 1.4 1.62 1.63 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.10
percent		 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.80
percent		 2 2.2 2 2.1 2.6
Capacity Utilization 81.90
percent		 81.54 81.37 81.44 81.5 81.46
Changes in Inventories 171681.00
MXN Million		 151905 150059 147948 157094 152885
Total Vehicle Sales 71695.00
 75568 82000 75077 75086 90000
Car Production 349.15
Thousand Units		 360 350 339 334 360
Car Registrations 71695.00
 75568 82000 75077 75086 85000
Leading Economic Index 4.50
percent		 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4
Internet Speed 7538.43
KBps		 7939 8014 8082 8119 8398
IP Addresses 13309655.00
IP		 13263779 13131627 13259427 13135172 13147818
Private Investment 10.50
percent		 3 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1
Steel Production 1800.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1768 1771 1772 1771 1771
Mining Production -6.60
percent		 -7.6 -7.8 -8.5 -9 -8
Competitiveness Index 4.44
Points		 4.44 4.44 4.46 4.46 4.47
Competitiveness Rank 51.00
 51 51 52 52 50
Ease of Doing Business 49.00
 50 50 52 52 53
Corruption Index 29.00
Points		 31 31 30 30 30
Corruption Rank 135.00
 131 131 132 132 133
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 88.01
Index Points		 86.3 86.5 85 85.6 86.4
Retail Sales MoM -1.10
percent		 0.15 0.32 0.26 0.28 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 3.30
percent		 0.6 0.6 1 1.3 1.5
Consumer Spending 12007369.20
MXN Million		 12310907 12914582 12283539 12249517 13528696
Personal Savings 20.60
percent		 21.25 21.25 21.77 21.77 22
Consumer Credit 1335267.20
MXN Million		 1373587 1391488 1405487 1421927 1526272
Private Sector Credit 4220835546.00
MXN Thousand		 4579591956 4697159438 4812736083 4926338051 5961100276
Households Debt To Gdp 16.10
percent of GDP		 16.12 16.13 16.14 16.14 16.16
Gasoline Prices 0.89
USD/Liter		 0.84 0.8 0.75 0.71 0.4
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 0.30
percent		 2.3 2.5 -1.4 -1.1 2.6
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 9.23
percent		 9.23 9.23 9 9 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent		 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65
percent		 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 27.19
mm		 130 42.55 17.29 62.35 62.12
Temperature 16.74
celsius		 24.48 18.09 16.7 23.86 21.08