Mexico - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 1.2 1 0.4 0.6 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.50 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 percent
Inflation Rate 4.90 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.75 7.75 8 8 8 8.25 percent
Balance of Trade -2889.20 -2000 500 -500 -1000 1000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 46 46 47 47 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 18.96
 19.24 19.43 19.63 19.82 20.63
Stock Market 49417.22
points		 49534 49049 48568 48093 46237
Government Bond 10Y 8.06
percent		 7.91 7.99 8.06 8.14 8.45
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20
percent		 1.2 1 0.4 0.6 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60
percent		 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4
GDP 1149.92
USD Billion		 1170 1170 1220 1220 1260
GDP Constant Prices 18441674.00
MXN Million		 18305383 18693531 18894784 18884274 19582446
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3808150.84
MXN Million		 3766795 3810822 3921925 3899546 3992034
GDP per capita 9946.16
USD		 9780 9780 10000 10000 11500
GDP per capita PPP 17336.47
USD		 17760 17760 18100 18100 18350
GDP From Agriculture 610395.65
MXN Million		 489841 711122 577786 625045 744938
GDP From Construction 1285128.00
MXN Million		 1288991 1360673 1324803 1315971 1425376
GDP From Manufacturing 2957793.00
MXN Million		 2931188 2956507 2933144 3028780 3097095
GDP From Mining 893411.00
MXN Million		 917350 920522 935507 914853 964294
GDP From Public Administration 743888.26
MXN Million		 689237 740592 716965 761742 775808
GDP From Services 11762116.59
MXN Million		 11368759 12086922 11575499 12044407 12661679
GDP From Transport 1205541.00
MXN Million		 1167728 1209749 1188999 1234474 1267275
GDP From Utilities 276360.00
MXN Million		 288641 271658 257430 282993 284576
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.50
percent		 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6
Employed Persons 53785257.00
 53400000 53600000 54070099 54351537 55000000
Unemployed Persons 1858160.00
 1908704 2050000 1780461 1866599 22800000
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.70
percent		 59.1 59.3 59.3 59.2 59.7
Labour Costs 84.30
Index Points		 81.3 102 81.53 81.56 105
Productivity 104.20
Index Points		 107 111 107 107 115
Wages 356.15
MXN/Day		 352 356 382 373 397
Wages in Manufacturing 2.30
USD/Hour		 2.5 3 2.3 2.4 3
Minimum Wages 88.36
MXN/Day		 88.36 88.36 95.45 95.45 102
Population 123.52
Million		 124 124 125 125 126
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Wages High Skilled 16700.00
MXN/Month		 16200 16200 17000 17000 17800
Wages Low Skilled 5560.00
MXN/Month		 5000 5000 5600 5600 5800
Living Wage Family 8260.00
MXN/Month		 8360 8360 8450 8450 8500
Living Wage Individual 4470.00
MXN/Month		 4500 4500 4600 4600 4550
Employment Rate 96.52
percent		 97.5 97.7 98 98.2 98.8
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90
percent		 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.58
percent		 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.49
Index Points		 101 102 103 103 109
Core Consumer Prices 100.22
Index Points		 100 101 102 103 108
Core Inflation Rate 3.63
percent		 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.8
GDP Deflator 126.03
Index Points		 128 129 131 132 144
Producer Prices 125.26
Index Points		 125 125 125 125 126
Export Prices 113.96
Index Points		 110 111 112 110 114
Import Prices 232.92
Index Points		 233 233 233 233 234
Food Inflation 3.06
percent		 3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4
CPI Transportation 104.83
Index Points		 105 109 108 108 116
Inflation Expectations 3.73
Percent		 3.7 3.65 3.65 3.66 3.66
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.75
percent		 7.75 8 8 8 8.25
Interbank Rate 8.11
percent		 8.11 8.36 8.36 8.36 8.61
Money Supply M0 1520063.70
MXN Million		 1519557 1500000 1520387 1520404 1590000
Money Supply M1 4173694309.00
MXN Thousand		 4199632471 3675931375 4178744866 4177556920 3810154560
Money Supply M2 8427183655.00
MXN Thousand		 8427532157 8428325238 8428258222 8428305483 8428320799
Money Supply M3 9638301786.00
MXN Thousand		 9640694183 9638087781 9637994865 9638019408 9638028107
Foreign Exchange Reserves 176620.00
USD Million		 178000 180000 178700 178900 190000
Banks Balance Sheet 5994605.20
MXN Million		 6331091 6447422 6563084 6678081 7792536
Loans to Private Sector 2352487758.00
MXN Thousand		 2581438750 2658326900 2734369545 2809575177 3517701352
Deposit Interest Rate 2.70
percent		 2.7 2.95 2.95 2.95 3.2
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3681397176.00
MXN Thousand		 3646361813 3660640303 3663987859 3662051479 3661872846
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2889.20
USD Million		 -2000 500 -500 -1000 1000
Exports 36720.60
USD Million		 36000 38500 38000 37500 40000
Imports 39609.80
USD Million		 38000 38000 38500 38500 39000
Current Account -3882.10
USD Million		 -4300 -2300 -4800 -3400 -3700
Current Account to GDP -1.60
percent		 -1.3 -1.3 -1 -1 -0.8
External Debt 453548.00
USD Million		 440000 442000 438000 440000 445500
Terms of Trade 48.93
Index Points		 47.21 47.64 48.07 47.21 48.72
Foreign Direct Investment 6726.90
USD Million		 6700 6500 6650 6700 6850
Remittances 9057.60
USD Million 		7700 7900 8200 8250 8400
Tourism Revenues 1945771.78
USD Thousand		 1818840 2120000 1815741 1816299 2300000
Tourist Arrivals 2168.43
Thousand		 1900 2500 2100 2000 2500
Gold Reserves 120.10
Tonnes		 120 120 120 120 120
Crude Oil Production 1891.00
BBL/D/1K		 1899 2070 1899 1899 2100
Terrorism Index 3.29
 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3
Capital Flows -10.90
USD Million		 20 40 -30 -15 -30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent		 46 46 47 47 47
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP		 -2.7 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8
Government Budget Value 7344.50
MXN Million		 -3615000 -325000 48194 -113349 0
Government Spending 2196413.00
MXN Million		 2097582 2217901 2186645 2249127 2323366
Government Revenues 511065.00
MXN Million		 385000 375000 428194 426651 440000
Fiscal Expenditure 434668.40
MXN Million		 4000000 700000 380000 540000 440000
Military Expenditure 5532.60
USD Million		 5300 5300 5100 5100 4800
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 51.30
Index Points		 51.4 51.6 51.4 51.5 52
Manufacturing PMI 50.70
 50.8 51.4 51.7 52 52.7
Industrial Production 1.30
percent		 -1.1 -0.3 -2.3 0.6 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent		 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent		 2 2.2 2 2.1 2.6
Capacity Utilization 81.60
percent		 81.72 81.62 81.69 81.72 81.69
Changes in Inventories 109974.00
MXN Million		 151905 150059 147948 157094 152885
Total Vehicle Sales 73223.00
 75070 82000 74622 74627 90000
Car Production 369.54
Thousand Units		 0 350 335 340 360
Car Registrations 73223.00
 75070 82000 74622 74627 85000
Leading Economic Index 1.20
percent		 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4
Internet Speed 7538.43
KBps		 7939 8014 8082 8119 8398
IP Addresses 13309655.00
IP		 13263779 13131627 13259427 13135172 13147818
Private Investment 1.50
percent		 1.36 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.1
Steel Production 1780.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1761 1767 1760 1759 1760
Mining Production -7.00
percent		 -7.6 -7.3 -7.1 -6.7 -8
Competitiveness Index 4.44
Points		 4.44 4.44 4.46 4.46 4.47
Competitiveness Rank 51.00
 51 51 52 52 50
Ease of Doing Business 49.00
 50 50 52 52 53
Corruption Index 29.00
Points		 31 31 30 30 30
Corruption Rank 135.00
 131 131 132 132 133
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.80
Index Points		 102 102 102 102 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.60
percent		 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 4.20
percent		 3 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.2
Consumer Spending 12318801.00
MXN Million		 12339401 12914582 12284712 12614452 13528696
Personal Savings 21.50
percent		 21.35 21.25 21.2 21.77 22
Consumer Credit 1360348.40
MXN Million		 1380813 1401064 1417536 1436481 1559082
Private Sector Credit 4220835546.00
MXN Thousand		 4579591956 4697159438 4812736083 4926338051 5961100276
Households Debt To Gdp 16.10
percent of GDP		 16.12 16.13 16.14 16.14 16.16
Gasoline Prices 1.04
USD/Liter		 1.06 1 0.95 0.89 0.71
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 4.50
percent		 2.3 2.5 -1.4 -1.1 2.4
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 9.23
percent		 9.23 9.23 9 9 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent		 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65
percent		 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 27.19
mm		 130 42.55 17.29 62.35 62.12
Temperature 16.74
celsius		 24.48 18.09 16.7 23.86 21.08