Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.7 3.8 4 3.9 4.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.35 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 3.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7 7 6.5 6 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -2732.00 -2300 -1500 -2500 -3000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 47.90 48 46 46 46 47 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 18.99 18.4 18.22 18.03 17.85 15.8 [+]
Stock Market 49988.71 50000 49500 49000 48500 42900 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 7.14 7.15 7.22 7.29 7.36 8.14 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 1046.00 1090 1170 1170 1170 1260 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14771013.00 14870000 14880000 14920000 150119488 15700000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3085988.00 3071843 3058391 3044595 3031369 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9707.10 9720 9780 9780 9610 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16831.10 17300 17760 17760 17760 18350 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 478554.03 540000 450000 485000 388334 560000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1019280.00 1060000 1030000 1040000 1040000 1050000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2472413.00 2400000 2459141 2457456 2455109 2650000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 828001.00 790000 780000 765000 770000 771000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 521075.60 535000 497917 518831 497595 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 9042030.62 9300000 9057130 8929862 9187111 10000000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 891829.00 919000 876652 885366 876172 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 308086.00 356000 327000 322000 372000 386000 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.7 3.8 4 3.9 4.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 52198611.00 51900000 51900000 51900000 52038983 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1870180.00 2370000 1948874 1920679 1925649 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.10 60 59.84 60.2 60.3 61 percent [+]
Labour Costs 81.30 101 86.74 87.63 88.27 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 107.30 109 106 106 106 115 Index Points [+]
Wages 336.24 332 334 348 338 377 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.30 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 86.02 86.02 86.02 96.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 122.27 124 125 125 124 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 7912.50 8047 8055 8061 8064 8070 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4955.00 5088 5096 5100 5103 5107 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4878 4879 4879 4879 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15700 15800 15900 20378 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.40 96.1 96.4 96.5 96.5 96.4 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.35 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 3.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.31 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.03 1.58 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 127.91 130 134 137 130 139 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 123.94 124 124 124 125 127 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.80 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 142.44 146 146 147 148 152 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 116.45 118 120 122 117 126 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 109.26 107 107 108 108 109 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 225.03 224 224 224 225 226 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 8.70 8.5 8 7.8 7.2 4.8 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 99.99 104 106 105 97.54 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7 7 6.5 6 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 7.38 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1357348.60 1450000 1356388 1355557 1354723 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3781270136.00 3580426279 3785721838 3783883174 3781925631 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12984454006.00 13277428500 13405496726 13490948676 13546981128 13592332229 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 15368114440.00 15648544497 15767647843 15848241100 15901309821 15924658880 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 174702.23 173000 173053 172562 172105 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5731053.26 5731922 5730074 5725367 5719587 5662778 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2209952090.00 2250876672 2260399125 2262886320 2262440216 2241346518 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.29 1.02 2 2 2 2.5 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3638351276.00 3616595355 3614775558 3612004585 3609216348 3584270247 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -2732.00 -2300 -1500 -2500 -3000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 35778.30 36000 35000 36000 37000 40000 USD Million [+]
Imports 38510.70 33700 33500 33500 34000 35000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -321.10 -4700 -4600 -4600 -4500 -4700 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -3 -3 -3 -2.03 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 439366.20 4000 4500 4800 4800 5020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 48.55 48.9 49.1 49.32 49.53 51.33 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 5621.30 7720 10500 4100 6171 7700 USD Million [+]
Remittances 7305.90 7011 6925 7062 7110 7006 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1590592.25 2090000 1552096 1501857 1460611 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1656.13 2870 1700 1600 1600 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.10 122 116 114 113 101 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2035.00 2050 2080 2120 2097 2100 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 4 4 4 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows -10.30 5830 661 795 966 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.90 48 46 46 46 47 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -13889.20 35600 -9928 -11125 -11081 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1555633.00 164000 1566798 1569749 1553642 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 369225.50 330000 360000 375000 385000 440000 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 383342.80 670000 650000 640000 630000 670000 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6892.70 6917 6870 6823 6776 6215 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 49.66 49 50 50.1 51.22 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.80 51.4 51.4 52 53 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.50 -2.4 1.1 -1.4 1.51 1.4 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.3 0.5 0.25 0.14 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 3.32 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.30 81.1 80.71 80.42 80.19 79.59 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 38493.00 88484 91313 108526 103546 103946 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 79857.00 90000 74422 72452 70616 90000 [+]
Car Production 307.17 360 350 350 360 360 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 79857.00 80000 93000 86000 70616 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 1.00 2.1 2.27 2.42 2.5 2.1 percent [+]
Mining Production -9.66 -5.8 -1.9 0.2 -2.09 1 percent [+]
Private Investment -2.50 1 2.21 2.87 3.17 3.22 percent [+]
Steel Production 1730.00 1706 1694 1683 1672 1580 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.44 4.41 4.39 4.39 4.46 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 50 50 53 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 48 48 48 51 34 [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 36 37 37 33 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 93 90 90 122 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 88.80 85 86 86 87 88 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.30 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.40 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 2 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 9827851.00 9700000 9600000 9600000 9700000 9900000 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 20.60 21.57 21.76 21.96 22.16 23.2 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1252137.50 1311175 1337749 1361462 1382788 1488680 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3937286146.00 4079398420 4095470223 4102625470 4104542968 4065309280 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.50 16.41 16.36 16.31 16.25 15.77 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.89 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.8 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output -1.63 2 -1.9 -3.2 1.94 2.6 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 30 25 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.25 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5 percent [+]