Mexico | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

Mexico’s economy is expected to continue to grow below its long-term potential in 2017 and lower than a 2.3 percent expansion in 2016 amid declining oil production, slowing manufacturing, rising inflation and interest rates. Private spending is expected to slow as higher consumer prices and interest rates kick in. Inflation is likely to remain above the central bank’s target of 2-4 percent throughout 2017 due to transitory foreign exchange shocks and the liberalization of gasoline prices. As a result, the central bank is expected to tighten monetary conditions further. Government debt is expected to decline due to fiscal spending cuts. However, uncertainty regarding protectionist measures in the US and the renegotiation of NAFTA are a risk to the growth outlook. This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.50 4.21 4.32 3.8 4.2 4.2 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 6.16 6.5 7.1 7.4 6.5 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.75 8 7 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 616.79 1500 100 -1200 -1000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 47.90 47 47 47 46 49 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 18.00 18.26 18.44 18.98 18.8 21.7 [+]
Stock Market 48980.78 48800 48300 46800 47300 39400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.73 7.1 7.17 7.24 7.31 8.44 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.1 percent [+]
GDP 1143.79 987 987 987 1150 1260 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 14689634.00 15150000 15200000 15270000 14812713 16900000 MXN Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3077463.23 3069868 3068777 3069991 3072961 3270000 MXN Million [+]
GDP per capita 9510.60 9720 9720 9720 9780 9900 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 16490.35 17300 17300 17300 117600 12350 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 430672.39 430000 350000 508000 434797 535000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1004357.00 1006500 1090000 1120000 1007954 1160000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2447004.00 2476389 2473533 2400000 2475208 2650000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Mining 845222.00 836880 826045 941000 806702 978000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 500518.67 519000 500000 535000 500745 564000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Services 9024909.32 9290000 9117554 9540000 9187130 10200000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Transport 866362.00 899000 874845 919000 876851 988000 MXN Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 317433.00 315291 356907 348570 318109 346873 MXN Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.50 4.21 4.32 3.8 4.2 4.2 percent [+]
Employed Persons 51859895.00 51750000 51800000 51900000 52868684 52500000 [+]
Unemployed Persons 1821825.00 2300000 2300000 2370000 1750436 23600000 [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 58.93 59.55 59.85 59.89 59.86 59.85 percent [+]
Labour Costs 73.20 77 81 101 73.63 105 Index Points [+]
Productivity 110.20 109 109 112 109 117 Index Points [+]
Wages 330.10 333 331 332 330 377 MXN/Day [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 2.20 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 80.04 80.04 80.04 80.04 86.02 96.17 MXN/Day [+]
Population 122.27 124 124 124 125 128 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 7912.50 8454 8461 8462 8462 8462 MXN/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 4955.00 5061 5078 5087 5091 5095 MXN/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 4760.00 4875 4878 5200 4879 5800 MXN/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 15100.00 15600 15700 15700 15800 17400 MXN/Month [+]
Employment Rate 96.54 96.58 96.05 96.1 96.58 96 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.16 6.5 7.1 7.4 6.5 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.12 -0.2 0.75 0.6 0.5 0.27 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 126.09 129 132 134 138 139 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 122.57 123 125 127 130 133 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 4.72 4.9 5 5.1 4.6 4 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 142.40 145 136 150 153 174 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 116.82 117 116 116 128 116 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 105.44 99 98 99 105 107 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 223.72 221 223 223 225 225 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 7.00 5 4.7 4.5 4 3.8 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 101.32 101 102 104 106 107 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.00 7 7.25 7.75 8 7 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.98 6.8 7.3 7.6 7.7 6.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 1375217.80 1400000 1430000 1450000 1372240 1590000 MXN Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3812171270.00 3478090512 3817117442 3580426279 3817970153 3810154560 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 12603592708.00 12740094726 12953448560 13167932993 13382103248 15712480508 MXN Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 15046943261.00 15207225597 15447109941 15688556224 15929391138 18525879998 MXN Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 176749.00 176964 176288 173000 175556 193000 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 5613969.29 5635673 5751625 5857331 5960164 7039954 MXN Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2129597371.00 2167701805 2232377780 2295405016 2357791536 2979283643 MXN Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.59 1.02 1.02 1.02 2.03 2.29 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3744342937.00 3767797802 3827324274 3885880074 3945151160 4574979067 MXN Thousand [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade 616.79 1500 100 -1200 -1000 -4000 USD Million [+]
Exports 31484.54 32000 30500 29700 29500 28000 USD Million [+]
Imports 30867.76 30500 30400 30900 30500 32000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -6859.20 -3900 -3100 -5500 -8600 -9500 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.70 -3 -3 -3 -3 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 4120.34 3370 3400 3400 5298 4020 MXN Billion [+]
Terms of Trade 47.13 47.44 47.22 47.24 47.24 47.24 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 7945.60 6300000 6000000 5250000 7347 6290000 USD Million [+]
Remittances 6639.60 7200 7165 7140 6922 7352 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1823429.92 2050000 1674695 2090000 1689053 2300000 USD Thousand [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1864.58 2500 1757 2870 1758 3360 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 120.10 121 120 122 120 120 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 2051.00 2100 2070 2050 2080 2100 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 3.72 3.99 3.69 3.99 4 4.1 [+]
Capital Flows 1800.70 8923 5962 5830 5767 6082 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.90 47 47 47 46 49 percent [+]
Government Budget -2.60 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.6 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 58484.50 -157369 105358 -35600 21237 -18300 MXN Million [+]
Government Spending 1564592.23 1630000 1571464 164000 1571261 1740000 MXN Million [+]
Government Revenues 437026.00 491976 439980 448178 459526 459811 MXN Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 385400.00 523263 421344 658041 445208 796904 MXN Million [+]
Military Expenditure 6892.70 7480 7257 7035 7030 6854 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 47.55 46 48 49 50 53.5 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.20 51.9 51 50.8 51.4 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -4.40 0.1 -0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.30 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -1.73 2.86 2.19 2.01 1.96 1.95 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.30 81.83 81.42 81.45 81.67 81.58 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 45226.80 47683 48222 59926 50909 50066 MXN Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 72778.00 87048 87232 90000 86412 90000 [+]
Car Production 327.83 315 300 290 310 270 Thousand Units [+]
Car Registrations 72778.00 84000 79000 80000 93000 85000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 4.41 1.9 1.8 2.1 3.65 2.1 percent [+]
Private Investment 3.90 3.47 3.64 3.77 3.83 3.86 percent [+]
Mining Production -9.63 -10.08 -10.28 -1.8 -10.27 1 percent [+]
Steel Production 1650.00 1676 1674 1690 1689 1688 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.39 4.43 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 51.00 51 51 51 50 50 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 47.00 48 48 48 48 34 [+]
Corruption Index 30.00 36 36 36 37 38 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 123.00 93 93 93 90 88 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 85.78 73 72 71 70 99 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.20 0.3 0.2 0.33 0.33 0.2 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.40 4.5 4 5 2.9 3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 9697786.97 9747249 9973401 10342157 9838471 10353706 MXN Million [+]
Personal Savings 20.60 20.66 21.25 21.84 21.77 21.1 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 1211553.90 1235051 1264868 1286410 1309927 1483593 MXN Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3840060461.00 3982432493 4075997584 4167985176 4257903218 5122461052 MXN Thousand [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 16.40 16.52 16.62 16.64 16.67 16.77 percent of GDP [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.86 0.91 0.92 0.89 0.85 0.7 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output -6.47 1 1.8 2 1.9 2.6 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 76.40 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.09 78 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 30 26 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 38.01 38.04 35 40.56 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 16.00 16 16 16 16 16 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.26 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58 7.58 7.57 7.58 7.58 7.59 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.64 percent [+]