Mexico - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.30 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.5 4 percent
Inflation Rate 6.77 6.3 6 5.6 5.3 5 percent
Interest Rate 7.25 7 7 6.5 6.5 6 percent
Balance of Trade 399.21 -1500 -2500 -3000 -2300 -4000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 47.90 46 46 46 46 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 18.61
19.34 19.9 20.47 21.06 23.6
Stock Market 49695.56
points
48139 46940 45770 44634 36479
Government Bond 10Y 7.58
percent
7.22 7.29 7.36 7.73 8.14
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.30
percent
0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent
2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1
GDP 1046.92
USD Billion
1170 1170 1170 1170 1260
GDP Constant Prices 18103081.97
MXN Million
14880000 14920000 150119488 15100000 15700000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3729559.06
MXN Million
3694638 3674851 3655509 3636846 3270000
GDP per capita 9707.10
USD
9780 9780 9632 9780 9900
GDP per capita PPP 16831.10
USD
17760 17760 17760 17760 18350
GDP From Agriculture 481009.82
MXN Million
450000 485000 485356 548000 560000
GDP From Construction 1273686.00
MXN Million
1030000 1040000 1040000 1040000 1050000
GDP From Manufacturing 2894739.00
MXN Million
2883400 2873613 2871851 2520000 2650000
GDP From Mining 911741.00
MXN Million
780000 765000 770000 772000 771000
GDP From Public Administration 687633.62
MXN Million
690180 718813 688174 545000 564000
GDP From Services 11273873.33
MXN Million
9057130 8929862 9187111 9400000 10000000
GDP From Transport 1158472.00
MXN Million
1152662 1153248 1152946 939000 988000
GDP From Utilities 285586.00
MXN Million
327000 322000 372000 364000 386000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent
3.4 3.6 3.8 3.5 4
Employed Persons 52438646.00
53300000 53000000 53400000 53600000 55000000
Unemployed Persons 1931269.00
1927319 1911645 1909561 2050000 22800000
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.50
percent
60 60.2 60.3 60 61
Labour Costs 79.70
Index Points
84.21 85.86 87.01 102 105
Productivity 107.20
Index Points
107 106 106 111 115
Wages 333.01
MXN/Day
334 348 338 347 377
Wages in Manufacturing 2.30
USD/Hour
2.3 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4
Minimum Wages 88.36
MXN/Day
88.36 88.36 88.36 88.36 102
Population 122.27
Million
125 125 124 125 128
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Wages Low Skilled 5560.00
MXN/Month
5153 5180 5207 5000 5800
Wages High Skilled 16700.00
MXN/Month
15800 15900 14940 16200 17400
Living Wage Family 8260.00
MXN/Month
8269 8270 8272 8274 8275
Living Wage Individual 4470.00
MXN/Month
4545 4553 4561 4569 4599
Employment Rate 96.58
percent
96.4 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.4
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 6.77
percent
6.3 6 5.6 5.3 5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.59
percent
0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 130.81
Index Points
128 127 127 127 123
Core Consumer Prices 125.20
Index Points
124 124 125 125 127
Core Inflation Rate 4.90
percent
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4
GDP Deflator 119.49
Index Points
98.49 94.71 88.96 84.65 74.28
Producer Prices 120.19
Index Points
120 122 123 123 126
Export Prices 108.77
Index Points
107 108 108 108 109
Import Prices 225.74
Index Points
224 224 225 225 226
Food Inflation 8.30
percent
8 7.8 7.2 5.6 4.8
CPI Transportation 104.25
Index Points
106 105 107 108 107
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7 7 6.5 6.5 6
Interbank Rate 7.51
percent
7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
Money Supply M0 1545934.30
MXN Million
1529550 1528709 1527825 1500000 1590000
Money Supply M1 3997669278.00
MXN Thousand
4027786337 4027928450 4026112579 3675931375 3810154560
Money Supply M2 13438544289.00
MXN Thousand
13835784538 14022776309 14156955144 14251279384 14407169615
Money Supply M3 15846617910.00
MXN Thousand
16274598749 16467244325 16607742685 16707700141 16869975750
Foreign Exchange Reserves 173967.00
USD Million
173052 172432 171922 185000 193000
Banks Balance Sheet 5857788.00
MXN Million
5902424 5910944 5909694 5905157 5856583
Loans to Private Sector 2301790660.00
MXN Thousand
2349426435 2362158848 2366142737 2366362508 2347200004
Deposit Interest Rate 1.29
percent
2 2 2 2 2.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3731053748.00
MXN Thousand
3731677100 3729057631 3726254941 3723457738 3690122004
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 399.21
USD Million
-1500 -2500 -3000 -2300 -4000
Exports 37479.84
USD Million
35000 36000 37000 36000 40000
Imports 37080.64
USD Million
33500 33500 34000 33700 35000
Current Account -5527.90
USD Million
-4600 -4600 -4500 -4600 -4700
Current Account to GDP -2.70
percent
-3 -3 -2.33 -3 -2.8
External Debt 447687.80
MXN Billion
4500 4800 4800 4700 5020
Terms of Trade 48.18
Index Points
48.64 48.83 49.04 49.26 50.86
Foreign Direct Investment 5716.80
USD Million
10500 4100 6251 7520 7700
Remittances 7319.70
USD Million
6955 7090 7162 7100 7052
Tourism Revenues 1718055.64
USD Thousand
1528291 1465623 1431658 2120000 2300000
Tourist Arrivals 1886.23
Thousand
1600 1500 1500 3020 3360
Gold Reserves 120.31
Tonnes
119 117 116 115 104
Crude Oil Production 1761.00
BBL/D/1K
2080 2120 1923 2070 2100
Terrorism Index 3.29
4 4 4 4 4.1
Capital Flows -3.90
USD Million
40 -20 20 10 -50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 47.90
percent
46 46 46 46 47
Government Budget -2.60
percent of GDP
-2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.4
Government Budget Value -38813.50
MXN Million
-30000 -30000 -32000 -32000 -25000
Government Spending 2089840.06
MXN Million
1660000 1660000 1660000 1660000 1700000
Government Revenues 377180.90
MXN Million
360000 375000 385000 375000 440000
Fiscal Expenditure 397990.10
MXN Million
380000 375000 375000 375000 380000
Military Expenditure 6892.70
USD Million
7601 7373 7145 6917 6215
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 49.60
Index Points
50 50.1 50.5 52 53.5
Manufacturing PMI 51.70
51.4 52 53 52 51.8
Industrial Production -1.50
percent
1.1 -1.4 0.91 1.4 1.4
Industrial Production Mom -0.10
percent
0.5 0.25 0.13 0.2 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
Capacity Utilization 82.50
percent
81.39 80.98 80.66 80.41 79.65
Changes in Inventories 135143.74
MXN Million
156484 159903 159691 158615 157951
Total Vehicle Sales 91668.00
81380 78707 76574 82000 90000
Car Production 246.25
Thousand Units
350 350 360 350 360
Car Registrations 91668.00
Cars
93000 86000 76574 82000 85000
Leading Economic Index 1.50
percent
1.89 2.19 2.36 2 2.1
Internet Speed 7538.43
KBps
7413 7316 7265 7174 6216
IP Addresses 13309655.00
IP
13218208 13172396 13120893 13055252 12427298
Private Investment -2.60
percent
-0.84 0.94 2.17 2.85 3.12
Mining Production -8.50
percent
-1.9 0.2 -3.39 0.8 1
Steel Production 1600.00
Thousand Tonnes
1599 1588 1578 1567 1493
Competitiveness Index 4.44
Points
4.39 4.39 4.46 4.39 4.43
Competitiveness Rank 51.00
50 50 53 50 50
Ease of Doing Business 49.00
48 48 53 46 34
Corruption Index 30.00
Points
37 37 33 37 38
Corruption Rank 123.00
90 90 118 90 88
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 88.39
Index Points
86 86 87 87 88
Retail Sales MoM 1.00
percent
0.17 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY -0.10
percent
0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 2
Consumer Spending 12281702.62
MXN Million
9600000 9600000 9700000 9700000 9900000
Personal Savings 20.60
percent
20.62 20.93 21.25 21.57 23.2
Consumer Credit 1286294.80
MXN Million
1343717 1369142 1392044 1412792 1509985
Private Sector Credit 4171311881.00
MXN Thousand
4304091975 4368419732 4410517305 4437231512 4447814328
Households Debt To Gdp 16.50
percent of GDP
16.42 16.37 16.32 16.26 15.84
Gasoline Prices 0.84
USD/Liter
0.85 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.8
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output -5.70
percent
-1.9 -3.2 0.67 2.5 2.6
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 25
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 9.23
percent
9 9 9 9 9
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent
7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65
percent
1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 27.19
mm
17.26 53 130 42.55 62.12
Temperature 16.74
celsius
16.67 23.24 24.48 18.09 21.08