This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 percent
Inflation Rate 4.90 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.75 8 8 8 8 8.25 percent
Balance of Trade -194.00 500 -500 -1000 -800 1000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 46 47 47 47 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 20.54
 18.99 19.18 19.37 19.57 20.37
Stock Market 42663.23
points		 49315 48827 48344 47866 45999
Government Bond 10Y 9.06
percent		 8.01 8.09 8.16 8.24 8.55
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent		 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60
percent		 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.4
GDP 1149.92
USD Billion		 1170 1220 1220 1220 1260
GDP Constant Prices 18441674.00
MXN Million		 18693531 18894784 18884274 18865833 19334345
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3808150.84
MXN Million		 3810822 3921925 3899546 3895738 3941457
GDP per capita 9946.16
USD		 9780 10000 10000 10000 11500
GDP per capita PPP 17336.47
USD		 17760 18100 18100 17581 18350
GDP From Agriculture 610395.65
MXN Million		 711122 577786 625045 624435 735500
GDP From Construction 1285128.00
MXN Million		 1360673 1324803 1315971 1314686 1407317
GDP From Manufacturing 2957793.00
MXN Million		 2956507 2933144 3028780 3025822 3057856
GDP From Mining 893411.00
MXN Million		 920522 935507 914853 913959 952077
GDP From Public Administration 743888.26
MXN Million		 740592 716965 761742 760998 765979
GDP From Services 11762116.59
MXN Million		 12086922 11575499 12044407 12032645 12501261
GDP From Transport 1205541.00
MXN Million		 1209749 1188999 1234474 1233268 1251219
GDP From Utilities 276360.00
MXN Million		 271658 257430 282993 282716 280970
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent		 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6
Employed Persons 53785257.00
 53600000 54070099 54351537 54536629 55000000
Unemployed Persons 1858160.00
 2050000 1780461 1866599 1885494 22800000
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.50
percent		 59.3 59.3 59.2 59.81 59.7
Labour Costs 81.10
Index Points		 102 81.64 81.67 81.67 105
Productivity 107.40
Index Points		 111 107 107 107 115
Wages 351.80
MXN/Day		 356 382 373 368 397
Wages in Manufacturing 2.30
USD/Hour		 3 2.3 2.4 2.4 3
Minimum Wages 88.36
MXN/Day		 88.36 95.45 95.45 95.45 102
Population 123.52
Million		 124 125 125 125 126
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Wages Low Skilled 5390.00
MXN/Month		 5000 5600 5600 5600 5800
Wages High Skilled 17200.00
MXN/Month		 16200 17000 17000 17000 17800
Living Wage Family 7900.00
MXN/Month		 8360 8450 8450 8450 8500
Living Wage Individual 4320.00
MXN/Month		 4500 4600 4600 4600 4149
Employment Rate 96.40
percent		 97.7 98 98.2 96.51 98.8
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90
percent		 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.52
percent		 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.44
Index Points		 103 104 104 105 110
Core Consumer Prices 100.86
Index Points		 101 102 103 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 3.73
percent		 3.5 3.3 3.2 3 2.8
GDP Deflator 126.03
Index Points		 129 131 132 134 144
Producer Prices 128.55
Index Points		 131 133 136 135 144
Export Prices 115.40
Index Points		 111 112 110 110 114
Import Prices 234.29
Index Points		 233 233 233 234 234
Producer Prices Change 6.26
percent		 6.7 6.3 6 5.7 4.5
Food Inflation 3.84
percent		 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Cpi Housing Utilities 102.52
Index Points		 103 102 101 102 102
CPI Transportation 102.38
Index Points		 98.16 102 103 106 105
Inflation Expectations 3.80
Percent		 3.82 3.87 3.88 3.88 3.87
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.75
percent		 8 8 8 8 8.25
Interbank Rate 8.12
percent		 8.11 8.11 8.11 8.11 8.36
Money Supply M0 1528718.80
MXN Million		 1500000 1527451 1527261 1527091 1590000
Money Supply M1 4159638869.00
MXN Thousand		 3675931375 4138190916 4138366833 4138493037 3810154560
Money Supply M2 8503843452.00
MXN Thousand		 8501251915 8500991742 8501159720 8501174010 8501174908
Money Supply M3 9754050071.00
MXN Thousand		 9747094310 9746482691 9746602578 9746616894 9746618963
Foreign Exchange Reserves 177040.00
USD Million		 180000 178700 178900 176367 190000
Banks Balance Sheet 7605954.35
MXN Million		 7783666 7884572 7985669 8085661 8940036
Loans to Private Sector 2553373944.00
MXN Thousand		 2669679519 2751317704 2830630938 2909490763 3584814423
Deposit Interest Rate 2.70
percent		 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.95
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3668625207.00
MXN Thousand		 3677784955 3680074346 3678128994 3677995915 3678121077
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -194.00
USD Million		 500 -500 -1000 -800 1000
Exports 37805.51
USD Million		 38500 38000 37500 37200 40000
Imports 37999.42
USD Million		 38000 38500 38500 38000 39000
Current Account -3882.10
USD Million		 -2300 -4800 -3400 -4600 -3700
Current Account to GDP -1.60
percent		 -1.3 -1 -1 -1 -0.8
External Debt 445610.20
USD Million		 442000 438000 440000 444000 445500
Terms of Trade 49.25
Index Points		 47.64 48.07 47.21 47.01 48.72
Foreign Direct Investment 6726.90
USD Million		 6500 6650 6700 6750 6850
Remittances 9057.60
USD Million 		7900 8200 8250 8350 8400
Tourism Revenues 1945771.78
USD Thousand		 2120000 1815741 1816299 1816932 2300000
Tourist Arrivals 1695.14
Thousand		 2500 2100 2000 1400 2500
Gold Reserves 120.30
Tonnes		 120 120 120 120 120
Crude Oil Production 1865.00
BBL/D/1K		 2070 1896 1896 1896 2100
Terrorism Index 3.29
 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Capital Flows -10.90
USD Million		 40 -30 -15 -18 -30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent		 46 47 47 47 47
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP		 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8
Government Budget Value -80181.00
MXN Million		 -325000 39550 -120855 57512 0
Government Spending 2196413.00
MXN Million		 2217901 2186645 2249127 2246930 2293930
Government Revenues 378529.40
MXN Million		 375000 419550 419145 417512 440000
Fiscal Expenditure 455196.90
MXN Million		 700000 380000 540000 360000 440000
Military Expenditure 5532.60
USD Million		 5300 5100 5100 5100 4800
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.70
Index Points		 52 51.4 51.5 51.7 52.5
Manufacturing PMI 50.70
 51.4 51.7 52 52.4 50.8
Industrial Production 1.80
percent		 -0.3 -2.3 0.6 -1.2 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 1.00
percent		 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.14 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent		 2.2 2 2.1 2.3 2.6
Capacity Utilization 82.50
percent		 81.97 82.2 82.2 82.11 82.14
Changes in Inventories 109974.00
MXN Million		 137331 136590 153480 138781 137840
Total Vehicle Sales 70906.00
 82000 73577 73550 73561 90000
Car Production 363.47
Thousand Units		 350 335 340 335 360
Car Registrations 70906.00
 82000 73577 73550 73561 85000
Leading Economic Index 1.70
percent		 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4
Internet Speed 7538.43
KBps		 8014 8082 8119 8153 8398
IP Addresses 13309655.00
IP		 13131627 13259427 13135172 13260253 13147818
Steel Production 1600.00
Thousand Tonnes		 1676 1671 1665 1666 1666
Private Investment -2.40
percent		 3.2 3.3 3.1 -2.16 3.1
Mining Production 2.87
percent		 -7.3 -7.1 -6.7 -6.8 -8
Competitiveness Index 64.60
Points		 65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 67.6
Competitiveness Rank 46.00
 46 46 46 46 46
Ease of Doing Business 54.00
 50 52 52 52 53
Corruption Index 29.00
Points		 29 29 29 29 29
Corruption Rank 135.00
 135 135 135 135 135
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.40
Index Points		 102 102 102 102 103
Retail Sales MoM -0.30
percent		 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 3.90
percent		 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.7 3.2
Consumer Spending 12318801.00
MXN Million		 12914582 12284712 12614452 12602133 13357294
Personal Savings 21.50
percent		 21.25 21.2 21.77 21.77 22
Consumer Credit 1360348.40
MXN Million		 1401064 1417536 1436481 1450756 1559082
Private Sector Credit 4493585130.00
MXN Thousand		 4655908419 4769366338 4879396304 4988024884 5887993313
Households Debt To GDP 16.30
percent of GDP		 16.44 16.48 16.52 16.57 16.74
Gasoline Prices 0.96
USD/Liter		 0.82 0.91 0.86 0.8 0.8
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output -0.70
percent		 2.5 -1.4 -1.1 -1.83 2.4
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 9.23
percent		 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent		 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65
percent		 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 27.19
mm		 42.55 17.29 62.35 61.85 62.12
Temperature 16.74
celsius		 18.09 16.7 23.86 21.82 21.08



Mexico - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook