The economic activity in Mexico advanced 2.9 percent year-on-year in October 2018, quickening from a 2.1 percent rise in September and well above market expectations of a 2.4 percent growth. It is the fastest expansion since July, mainly driven by services (4.1% vs 2.2% in September), of which wholesale trade (5.9% vs 0.9%); retail trade (4.4% vs 3.5%) and transportation (4.9% vs 1.6%). On the other hand, output slowed for industry (1.0 percent vs 1.8 percent), as gains posted in utilities (4.8% vs 4.0%), manufacturing (2.5% vs 2.4%) and construction (1.4% vs -0.5%) were offset by a sharp decline in the mining sector (-5.6% vs 2.7%). Additionally, the agricultural sector contracted (-3 percent vs 0.9 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the Mexican economy shrank 0.3 percent, following a downwardly revised 0.3 percent growth in the previous month. Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.65 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -9.80 percent in October of 1995.
Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be 2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 2.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.