The economic activity in Mexico advanced 1.1 percent year-on-year in February 2019, slowing from a 1.3 percent rise in the previous month. Services grew at a softer pace (1.7 percent vs 2.2 percent in January), mainly due to wholesale trade (-1.3 percent vs 4.5 percent) and the secondary sector continued to contract (-0.8 percent vs -1 percent), driven by mining (-6.4 percent vs -10.1 percent); utilities (-1.1 percent vs -1.7 percent); construction (-1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent). Also, output rose less for manufacturing (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent). In contrast, the agricultural sector surged (9.2 percent vs 3.8 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity expanded 0.3 percent, following a 0.2 percent growth in the prior month. Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.43 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -11 percent in April of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.