Mexico's economic activity shrank 9.8 percent year-on-year in July 2020, following a downwardly revised 13.3 percent contraction in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 10 percent decline, amid the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions. Output shrank less in secondary activities (-11.4% vs -16.7% in June), in particular manufacturing (-9% vs -16.4%), construction (-23.5% vs -26.2%), utilities (-8.9% vs -13.4%) and mining (-3.1% vs -5.1%). Also, the services sector contracted at a softer pace (-10.1% vs -12.3%), of which retail trade (-8.1% vs -17.9%), transportation & storage (-21.9% vs -23.3%), accommodation & food (-61.4% vs -68.7%), recreation & culture (-19.6% vs -28.3%) and professional services (0.8% vs -8.3%). Additionally, primary activities grew 11%, recovering from a 2% contraction in June. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity expanded 5.7%, after rising 8.8% in the prior month and beating forecasts of a 5.2% gain.

Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.11 percent from 1994 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -22.70 percent in May of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2020. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica, Mexico

Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be -2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 7.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 1.60 percent in 2021 and 2.00 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-9.80 -13.30 12.60 -22.70 1994 - 2020 percent Monthly
2013=100, NSA


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-06-26 11:00 AM Apr -19.9% -2.3% -21.1% -19%
2020-07-24 11:00 AM May -22.7% -19.8% -20.1% -18%
2020-08-26 11:00 AM Jun -13.2% -22.7% -17%
2020-09-25 11:00 AM Jul -9.8% -13.3% -10% -9.5%
2020-10-23 11:00 AM Aug -9.8% -5.5%
2020-11-25 12:00 PM Sep -2.5%
2020-12-24 12:00 PM Oct


News Stream
Mexico Economic Activity Shrinks Less than Expected in July
Mexico's economic activity shrank 9.8 percent year-on-year in July 2020, following a downwardly revised 13.3 percent contraction in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 10 percent decline, amid the easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions. Output shrank less in secondary activities (-11.4% vs -16.7% in June), in particular manufacturing (-9% vs -16.4%), construction (-23.5% vs -26.2%), utilities (-8.9% vs -13.4%) and mining (-3.1% vs -5.1%). Also, the services sector contracted at a softer pace (-10.1% vs -12.3%), of which retail trade (-8.1% vs -17.9%), transportation & storage (-21.9% vs -23.3%), accommodation & food (-61.4% vs -68.7%), recreation & culture (-19.6% vs -28.3%) and professional services (0.8% vs -8.3%). Additionally, primary activities grew 11%, recovering from a 2% contraction in June. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity expanded 5.7%, after rising 8.8% in the prior month and beating forecasts of a 5.2% gain.
2020-09-25
Mexico Economic Activity Downturn Softens in June
Mexico's economic activity shrank 13.2% year-on-year in June of 2020, following a record 22.7% plunge in the prior month, amid some easing in the coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions. Output fell less in secondary activities (-16.7% vs -30.6% in May), of which manufacturing (-16.5% vs -37%) and construction (-26.2% vs -36.8%). Also, the services sector posted a smaller decrease (-12.1% vs -20.3%), in particular wholesale trade (-9.1% vs -35.3%), retail trade (-17.9% vs -36.1%), transportation & storage (-22.4% vs -30.8%) and professional services (-8.3% vs -9.7%). However, activity in accommodation & food services remained severely depressed (-68.7% vs -72%). Meanwhile, primary activities contracted for the first time in four months (-2% vs 2.9%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity grew at a record 8.9%, recovering sharply from a downwardly revised 2.4% fall in the previous month.
2020-08-26
Mexico Economic Activity Shrinks at Record Pace
Mexico's economic activity shrank 22.7 percent year-on-year in May 2020, following a downwardly revised 19.8 percent contraction in May and compared with market expectations of a 20.1 percent plunge. It was the steepest contraction in economic activity on record, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Output shrank further in secondary activities (-30.7% vs -29.3% in April), of which manufacturing (-37.1% vs -35.3%), construction (-36.3% vs -37.9%), mining (-5.9% vs -3.9%) and utilities. (-13.1% vs -3.4%). Also, the services sector contracted 20.3%, faster than a 16.2% slump, in particular wholesale trade (-35.5% vs -19.6%), retail trade (-36.6% vs -32.6%), food & accommodation services (-72% vs -70.5%), recreation activities (-33.3% vs -30.4%), transportation & storage (-30.8% vs -28.8%) and professional services (-9.7% vs -0.5%). Meanwhile, growth accelerated in the primary sector (2.5% vs 0.9%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell 2.6%, after plunging 17.3% in April.
2020-07-24
Mexico Economic Activity Shrinks the Most on Record
Mexico's economic activity shrank 19.9 percent year-on-year in April 2020, following a 2.3 percent contraction in March and compared with market expectations of a 21.1 percent slump. It was the sharpest contraction in economic activity on record, amid the coronavirus crisis. Output shrank further in secondary activities (-29.3% vs -4.9% in March), in particular manufacturing (-35.3% vs -6.1%), construction (-38% vs -7.5%) and mining (-3.6% vs 1.8%). Also, the services sector contracted 16.4%, faster than a 1.5% drop in March, of which retail trade (-32.7% vs -0.9%), wholesale trade (-19.6% vs -2.4%), recreation activities (-30.4% vs -8%); food & accommodation services (-70.5% vs -26.4%), transportation & storage (-28.9% vs 2.6%) and financial services & real estate (-2.6% vs 1.1%). In addition, output growth slowed in the primary sector (1.8% vs 9.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity slumped 17.3%, after shrinking 1.3% in March.
2020-06-26

Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity
In Mexico, the Leading Index provides early signal on the direction in which the economy is going. It aggregates the following indicators: employment trend in manufacturing sector, non-oil exports, Mexican stock exchange index in real terms, real exchange rate, the interbank interest rate, Standard & Poor's 500. The index has a base value of 100 as of 2008.