ECB Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecasts

2026-03-19 13:23 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting, reaffirming its commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2% in the medium term.

The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.0% and marginal lending rate at 2.4%.

Policymakers highlighted that the Middle East war has significantly increased uncertainty, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth.

The ECB raised its inflation forecasts, particularly for 2026, due to higher energy prices driven by the Middle East war.

Headline inflation is now projected at 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028.

Core inflation projections were also increased, while growth forecasts were cut, especially for 2026, as the war’s impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence takes its toll.

The ECB expects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028.



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ECB Holds Rates, Raises Inflation Forecasts
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its March 2026 meeting, reaffirming its commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2% in the medium term. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, with the deposit facility at 2.0% and marginal lending rate at 2.4%. Policymakers highlighted that the Middle East war has significantly increased uncertainty, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for growth. The ECB raised its inflation forecasts, particularly for 2026, due to higher energy prices driven by the Middle East war. Headline inflation is now projected at 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation projections were also increased, while growth forecasts were cut, especially for 2026, as the war’s impact on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence takes its toll. The ECB expects GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028.
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