Eurozone Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.2%

The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, matching the pace of the previous quarter and slightly above market expectations of 0.2%, according to a flash estimate. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Spain led the gains, the strongest quarterly growth in a year, surpassing expectations of 0.6%, supported by robust household consumption and fixed investment. The Netherlands expanded by 0.5%, driven primarily by exports. Germany and Italy each grew by 0.3%, both beating forecasts, while France grew 0.2%, as expected, marking its weakest quarterly pace since Q1 2025. On an annual basis, Eurozone GDP rose 1.3%, above expectations of 1.2%. For full-year 2025, the Eurozone economy expanded 1.5%, up from 0.9% in 2024 and surpassing the European Commission’s 1.3% projection. Looking ahead, both the European Commission and the ECB expect growth to moderate to 1.2% in 2026 amid geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, before rebounding slightly to 1.4% in 2027.

Eurozone GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025 was revised slightly higher to 0.3%, up from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% and above the previous quarter’s 0.1% expansion. The upgrade was driven by a rebound in fixed investment, which rose 0.9% compared with a 1.7% decline in Q2, and stronger government spending, up 0.7% versus 0.4% in the previous quarter. Inventory changes contributed an additional 0.1 percentage point to GDP. Household consumption growth eased slightly to 0.2% from 0.3%, while net exports subtracted 0.2 percentage points as imports rose 1.3% and exports grew more slowly at 0.7%. Among the region’s largest economies, Spain and France led the expansion with growth of 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, followed by the Netherlands at 0.4% and Italy at a modest 0.1%. In contrast, Germany’s economy remained stagnant during the quarter.

The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, up from 0.1% in the previous period, according to a second estimate. Spain remained the standout performer among the bloc’s major economies, growing 0.6% as expected thanks to solid household spending and robust investment. France also posted strong momentum with a 0.5% increase, fueled by a sharp rebound in exports, while the Netherlands advanced 0.4%. In contrast, Germany’s economy stagnated amid weakening external demand, while Italy flatlined as industrial output contracted and the services sector showed no growth. On an annual basis, Eurozone GDP rose 1.4%, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 1.3% but below the 1.5% pace recorded in Q2. The figures suggest the bloc continues to show resilience despite geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, reducing immediate pressure on the ECB to deliver additional rate cuts.