Euro Holds Near Multi-Week Low Amid Middle East Tensions

2026-03-05 09:33 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

The euro traded around $1.16, near its weakest level since January 16, as investors assessed the potential fallout from the escalating Middle East conflict alongside rising inflation risks and the prospect of a more hawkish stance by the European Central Bank.

The confrontation has intensified, with reports that a US submarine sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka and that NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.

The resulting spike in energy prices is expected to sustain inflationary pressures across Europe, reinforcing expectations that the ECB may adopt a tighter monetary policy approach.

February data reinforced these concerns, showing annual euro area inflation at 1.9% and core inflation at 2.4%, both above forecasts.

Markets now assign roughly a 40% probability of an ECB rate hike by year-end, reversing last week’s similar odds for a cut, and see about a 60% chance of an increase by June 2027.



News Stream
Euro Rebounds Above $1.17 on US-Iran Talk Hopes
The euro climbed back above $1.17, attempting to rebound from two-week lows, as renewed optimism surrounded potential progress in US-Iran peace negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight, according to Al-Jazeera, which cited Pakistani government sources suggesting a "high likelihood of a breakthrough" in the talks between the US and Iran. Investors are also focusing on the upcoming April European Central Bank policy meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to maintain interest rates. The ECB is taking a wait-and-see stance to evaluate the impact of recent macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, against its earlier forecasts. Despite this cautious approach, money markets are fully pricing in two quarter-point rate hikes for 2026, with a chance of a third increase by the end of the year.
2026-04-24
Euro Slides to Two-Week Low on US-Iran Standoff
The euro held just below $1.17, its weakest level in two weeks, and is on track for a 0.7% weekly decline against the US dollar. The drop reflects renewed market unease as US-Iran negotiations stall and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, dashing earlier hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough to end the conflict. Attention now shifts to next Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting, where policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady. The ECB is adopting a wait-and-see approach to assess the impact of recent macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, particularly the Middle East conflict, against its earlier projections. Despite this caution, money markets are fully pricing in two quarter-point rate hikes in 2026, with a 55% probability assigned to a third increase by year-end.
2026-04-24
Euro Hovers Near Two-Week Low as Hormuz Tensions Weigh
The euro weakened below $1.17 against the dollar, its weakest level in two weeks, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted and diplomatic efforts stalled. With no new peace talks scheduled, the US and Iran remain at odds over control of the critical waterway. President Trump extended the April 7 truce indefinitely, pending a new Iranian proposal, but Tehran has ruled out immediate negotiations, pushing Brent crude above $103 per barrel and deepening economic uncertainty. New data showed the Eurozone’s private sector contracted in April at the fastest pace since November 2024, as the Iran war drove up energy costs, hurting consumer demand and the services sector. Meanwhile, Germany’s Economics Ministry halved its 2026 growth forecast, blaming the energy shock from the Middle East conflict.
2026-04-23