Canada Small Business Confidence Hits Highest Since 2022

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, climbed to 64.8 in February 2026, up from January’s revised 59.3. This marked the highest reading since April 2022, signaling renewed optimism among small businesses for the year ahead. Long-term confidence rose in all provinces except Saskatchewan. The short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, surged 8.7 points to 61.2, highlighting a notable improvement in business sentiment.

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, slipped slightly to 59.5 in January 2026, just below December’s three-year high of 59.9. The reading suggests that many small businesses remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Confidence strengthened in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, with all four provinces posting index levels at or above 60. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, rose 4.2 points to 52.4, signaling a modest improvement. However, short-term confidence remains relatively subdued across all provinces, ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty at the start of 2026.

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, rose for a second consecutive month to 59.9 in December 2025 from an upwardly revised 55.8 in November. It is the highest reading since May 2022, led by gains in the health and education, retail and the insurance sectors. On the other hand, the biggest drops in optimism were registered in hospitality and construction, as they are somewhat seasonal industries. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a 3-month outlook, rose by 2.0 point to 48.6, indicating only a modest improvement. Despite the rise in sentiment, more than half of small businesses still report insufficient demand.