Canada Small Business Confidence Plunges in March

Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, sank to 55.8 in March of 2026 from the over three-year high of 65.3 in the previous month. The sharp decline reflected the immediate impact of higher energy prices and inflation expectations following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which halted energy exports from the region. Consequently, the business barometer plunged for transportation and housing (-7.6 to 53.8) due to higher fuel costs and agriculture (-4.6 to 54.6) as the jump in natural gas and helium costs risked the supply for fertilizers. In the meantime, lower confidence was also noted for professional services (-4.1 to 59.4) and construction (-1.9 t 57.3).

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, climbed to 64.8 in February 2026, up from January’s revised 59.3. This marked the highest reading since April 2022, signaling renewed optimism among small businesses for the year ahead. Long-term confidence rose in all provinces except Saskatchewan. The short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, surged 8.7 points to 61.2, highlighting a notable improvement in business sentiment.

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which tracks 12-month forward expectations for business performance, slipped slightly to 59.5 in January 2026, just below December’s three-year high of 59.9. The reading suggests that many small businesses remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead. Confidence strengthened in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, with all four provinces posting index levels at or above 60. Meanwhile, the short-term optimism index, reflecting a three-month outlook, rose 4.2 points to 52.4, signaling a modest improvement. However, short-term confidence remains relatively subdued across all provinces, ranging from the mid-40s to mid-50s, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty at the start of 2026.