Brazil Unemployment Rate Holds at Tight Range

The unemployment rate in Brazil averaged 5.4% in the moving quarter ending January 2026, remaining unchanged from that of the moving quarter ending October of 2025, and aligned with market expectations. It was the slowest on record for the period, holding the view that the Brazilian labor market remained tight at the turn of the year despite the prolonged period of high base rates by the central bank and slowdown in growth. The unemployed population remained broadly unchanged from the earlier moving quarter at 5.9 million, and the employed population also remained loosely unchanged at 102.7 million. In the meantime, average wages grew by 2.8% on the quarter to R$3,65 monthly. This was equivalent to a 5.4% annual growth rate, ahead of the inflation rate in the period.

Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in the three months to December 2025, down from 5.2% in November and matching market expectations. This was the lowest reading in the series since 2012. The number of unemployed people stood at about 5.5 million. Job creation was led by commerce and by public administration, education, health, and social services. For 2025 as a whole, the unemployment rate declined to 5.6% from 6.6% in 2024, marking the lowest annual average since 2012. The average number of unemployed people fell year-on-year to 6.2 million from 7.2 million.

The unemployment rate in Brazil fell to 5.2% in the moving quarter ending in November of 2025, a record low, dropping from the 5.6% in the three months to August and compared to expectations of a softer decrease to 5.4%. The data extended the period of a strengthening Brazilian labor market despite elevated real interest rates faced by consumers and businesses, adding room for the central bank to remain hawkish should the country's disinflation progress stall. Net unemployment fell 7.2% from the previous moving quarter to 5.6 million, the lowest on record. In the meantime, net employment rose 0.6% to 103 million, also a record high. The underutilization rate fell by 0.6 percentage points to a fresh low of 13.5%. In the meantime, average wages rose by R$65 to R$3,547 monthly.