Ibovespa Jumps as Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

Brazil's Ibovespa closed 0.1% higher at 188,162 on Monday as investors carefully evaluated a Pakistan-mediated proposal to end the five-week conflict in the Middle East. While the proposed framework suggests an immediate ceasefire followed by broad diplomatic negotiations within 20 days the market remained cautious after Tehran rejected a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Brazilian real reached its strongest level against the greenback since late 2024 supported by elevated commodity prices and a hawkish domestic interest rate outlook. Petrobras shares gained 1.1% after international oil prices surpassed $110 per barrel while aircraft manufacturer Embraer climbed 1.1% following positive analyst reviews of its first-quarter delivery performance. In the banking sector Banco Bradesco advanced 0.7% and Banco do Brasil rose 0.4% to help offset a 0.4% decline in mining giant Vale. Consumer staples also saw strength as Ambev added 1.4%.

The Ibovespa edged up to trade above 188,500 on Monday as investors weighed prospects for ending the five-week Middle East conflict. Washington and Tehran received a Pakistan-mediated draft plan to end the conflict, though Tehran rejected immediate steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The plan proposes an immediate ceasefire followed by broader negotiations within 15–20 days. Banks posted gains, with Bradesco up 0.6%. Embraer rose 0.4% after Bradesco BBI rated its operational data positively, noting Q1 deliveries exceeded estimates and consensus in commercial, executive, and defense segments. Also, Petrobras gained 1% on higher oil quotes. Other notable performers included Vale up 0.5% and Ambev up 0.6%.

Brazil's Ibovespa closed flat at 188,052 on Thursday, recovering from its earlier slump to track some respite for global equities after Iran said it was considering a toll for selected tankers out of the Persian Gulf. The developments eased recent concerns that the halt of energy exports from the key region would trigger stagflationary crises across major economies. Still, Petrobras shares gained nearly 2% as benchmark crude oil prices rose to their highest in nearly 20 years for immediate deliveries. Utilities extended their positive momentum and also closed higher, with Sabesp adding nearly 1%. In turn, rate futures reflected risks for a higher benchmark rate from the central bank due to inflationary risks pressuring banks. Itau, Bradesco, and Banco do Brasil closed in the red. Markets in Brazil will be closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.