Ibovespa Dips on Commodity Stocks Losses

The Ibovespa pulled back for a second session to below 191,000 on Thursday amid pressure from commodity giants. Petrobras lost near 1%, pressured by falling oil prices with Iran's pledge to show flexibility in nuclear talks and OPEC+'s potential output increase. Meanwhile, Vale was down more than 1.5% on signs of muted demand from China, among its largest consumers. WEG also posted losses, falling about 2% after being downgraded to from overweight to neutral by JPMorgan following downwardly revised EPS forecasts. Still, banks were mostly higher with support from a sharper than expected deflation rate in the IGP-M gauge, consolidating bets of multiple rate cuts by the BCB this year and improving the credit outlook.

The Ibovespa edged down to close at 191,247 on Wednesday easing from all-time highs as higher oil and iron ores quotes boosted Petrobras and Vale. Oil prices rose amid lingering concerns over a potential US-Iran military conflict, lifting Petrobras 0.3%. Likewise, Vale gained more than 2.6%. In contrast, WEG lost 2.2% after it reported a net profit of R$1.59 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, a 6.3% decline compared to the same period a year earlier.

The Ibovespa rose 1.4% to close at a record 191,490 on Tuesday, as markets shrugged off earlier volatility from US trade policy shifts. Petrobras climbed 2.3% on firming global oil prices and strong cash flow outlooks, while the utilities sector surged with COPEL leading at 3.1%. Consumer sentiment also provided tailwinds after the Focus Bulletin’s annual inflation forecast dropped for the seventh straight week to 3.91%. In contrast, steelmaker Gerdau fell 2.2% after reporting a 21% decline in 2025 net income to R$3.4 billion, weighed down by record steel imports into Brazil despite strong North American performance. Meanwhile, retailers were mixed as investors processed the impact of the new 15% US global tariff, though the Brazilian real hit its strongest level since May 2024. After the bell, market attention shifted to earnings from C&A, GPA, and Iguatemi, while the broader market remains buoyed by expectations of potential interest rate cuts starting in March.