Ibovespa Declines From Record High

The Ibovespa rose 1.4% to close at a record 191,490 on Tuesday, as markets shrugged off earlier volatility from US trade policy shifts. Petrobras climbed 2.3% on firming global oil prices and strong cash flow outlooks, while the utilities sector surged with COPEL leading at 3.1%. Consumer sentiment also provided tailwinds after the Focus Bulletin’s annual inflation forecast dropped for the seventh straight week to 3.91%. In contrast, steelmaker Gerdau fell 2.2% after reporting a 21% decline in 2025 net income to R$3.4 billion, weighed down by record steel imports into Brazil despite strong North American performance. Meanwhile, retailers were mixed as investors processed the impact of the new 15% US global tariff, though the Brazilian real hit its strongest level since May 2024. After the bell, market attention shifted to earnings from C&A, GPA, and Iguatemi, while the broader market remains buoyed by expectations of potential interest rate cuts starting in March.

The Ibovespa rose nearly 1% to over 190,000 on Tuesday, approaching a record high, on support from companies in the oil sector. Petrobras climbed 1.5% as crude oil benchmarks continued to rise ahead of new US-Iran nuclear talks this week. The utilities sector also contributed to the gain, with Axia up more than 1%. In contrast, Gerdau fell over 3% after reporting a 21.1% decline in net profit for 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting earnings from C&A (+0.5%), GPA (+3%), Iguatemi (+0.5%), and ISA Energia (+0.4%) after market close.

The Ibovespa fell 0.9% to close at 188,853 on Monday, retreating from a new intraday historical high of 191,002 as volatility from US President Trump's 15% global tariff announcement weighed on sentiment. While the real strengthened to R$5.17, the equity index was dragged down by a sharp retreat in the financial sector after Santander plunged 4.7%, Itaú dropped 3.2%, and Bradesco fell 1.9%. Retailers also struggled, with Magazine Luiza sliding 4%. These losses overshadowed resilience in heavyweights Vale and Petrobras, which rose 0.7% and 2% respectively despite lower oil prices. Steelmaker Gerdau edged down 0.1% ahead of its earnings release, while WEG remained nearly flat. On the upside, Telefônica Brasil gained 3.3% following a well-received fourth-quarter report, and Cosan rose 1.1% amid Compass IPO developments. Locally, investors found some relief as the Focus Bulletin’s annual inflation forecast fell for the seventh straight week to 3.91%.