Brazil Keeps Interest Rate at 15%

Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 14.00% at its August meeting, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects a cautious approach amid heightened global uncertainty stemming from Middle East conflicts and uncertainty over monetary policy in advanced economies. Domestically, the central bank noted that economic activity continues to moderate gradually while remaining resilient, supported by a strong labor market. Headline inflation has eased but remains above the target range, while core inflation has slowed to slightly below the upper limit of the target band. Inflation expectations remain elevated, with the Focus survey projecting inflation at 5.0% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. The Copom reiterated that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside and said future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data to ensure inflation converges to target.

Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% at its June meeting, in line with market expectations and marking a third straight quarter-point rate cut. Policymakers said the decision was taken amid heightened uncertainty and aims to support economic activity without compromising their commitment to price stability. The central bank highlighted persistent inflationary pressures despite easing energy costs following the interim Iran-US peace agreement. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.72% in May, remaining above the target range, while inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 stayed elevated at 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively. At the same time, domestic economic activity remained resilient, supported by a strong labor market, with GDP expanding 1.1% in the first quarter and the central bank’s activity index rising 0.51% in April. The Copom emphasized that risks to inflation remain elevated and that future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 14.50% at its April 29 meeting, in line with forecasts. The monetary policy council cited an uncertain external environment due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which are affecting global financial conditions. National indicators continue to show a moderating economic growth trajectory, while the labor market remains resilient. Headline and underlying inflation have accelerated, moving further away from the target. Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain above target, at 4.9% and 4.0% respectively. Inflation risks are higher than usual and projections show further divergence from the target within the policy horizon. However, as uncertainty regarding these projections has increased considerably amid lack of clarity on the duration of the US-Iran conflict and it's effects, the committee deemed it appropriate to continue the monetary policy calibration cycle.