Brazil Industrial Production Recovers Slightly

Brazil’s industrial production fell 1.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the steepest decline since July 2024 and missing market expectations of a 0.7% drop. The contraction was broad-based, affecting all four major economic categories and 17 of the 25 sectors surveyed. The largest negative contributions came from motor vehicles (-8.7%), chemicals (-6.2%), and metallurgy (-5.4%). Partially offsetting the decline, output rose in coke, refined petroleum products and biofuels (+5.4%), pharmaceuticals (+6.7%), and extractive industries (+0.9%). Among major categories, capital goods (-8.3%) and durable consumer goods (-4.4%) recorded the sharpest declines. Despite the setback, industrial output remained 0.6% above pre-pandemic levels, though still 16.3% below the 2011 peak. On a year-on-year basis, production increased 0.4%, ending two consecutive months of contraction.

The industrial production in Brazil stalled for a second month in November of 2025, missing expectations of a 0.2% increase to reflect a third consecutive period without gain in industrial output. Output contracted for the extractive industries (-2.6%) amid drops for crude oil, natural gas, and iron ore. Output also fell for autos (-1.6%), chemicals (-1.2%), and food (-0.5%). These were offset by higher production of metal (2.7%), machinery and equipment (2%), non-metal mineral products (3%), and pharmaceutical products (9.8%). From the previous year, industrial production fell by 1.2%, the sharpest contraction in five months.

Brazil’s industrial production rose 0.1% from the previous month in October 2025, rebounding from a 0.4% drop in September but missing expectations of a 0.4% gain. The extractive sector grew 3.6%, while manufacturing fell 0.6%. Mining and quarrying led the positive contributions with a 3.6% increase, ending two months of declines. Other gains came from food products (0.9%), motor vehicles (2.0%), chemicals (1.3%), computer and electronic goods (4.1%), and apparel (3.8%). The sharpest declines were in coke, petroleum products, and biofuels (–3.9%) and in pharmaceuticals (–10.8%). Year-on-year, output fell 0.5%.