Brazil 10-Year Bond Yield Drops to 2-Month Low

2025-09-16 18:20 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

The 10-year Brazilian government bond yield fell below 13.7% in September, touching two-month lows as cooling activity and softer inflation prints compounded with declines in global long yields pushed down expected future real rates.

Brazil’s IBC-Br activity index fell 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, the third consecutive decline and weaker than the -0.2% consensus, signalling growth is losing momentum.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields slid to roughly five-month lows as markets priced a 25bp Fed move this week and further easing later in the year, transmitting lower global long-rate benchmarks to Brazil.

That downward pressure on long yields comes despite an unusually tight labour market, unemployment was about 5.6% in the July moving quarter, which tempers how quickly the central bank might pivot to cuts and supports a cautious policy stance.

The central bank is widely expected to hold policy at its current restrictive level at the upcoming meeting.



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