Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 10.60 12.4 11.8 10.7 12 13 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 12.98 9.4 8.7 6.6 5.1 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.5 7.25 5.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -7324.23 -4500 -4900 -5300 -6762 -2000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 31.2 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 3.83 3.59 3.56 3.52 3.48 3.09 [+]
Stock Market 110247.89 103000 102000 101000 99900 88400 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 12.09 10.86 10.97 11.07 11.18 12.36 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 11.10 5.4 5.2 4.8 4.6 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 857.75 739 754 754 790 816 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 448956426.80 438000000 362000000 412000000 411895525 512000000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 34800000 30888516 31583526 34128512 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130559821.50 8590000 113374340 124500926 114381397 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 14071.17 14350 14840 14840 14840 15960 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 23679.40 22000 23823 23817 23811 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 53890930.00 3124000 9244370 17210404 51811362 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 36121898.80 2070000 26859439 31931739 30041725 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 67757878.70 8730000 61455483 68662184 62198437 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 227000 168287 209584 241724 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 39774313.98 1080000 40078434 39884727 38987536 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 4420000 4070504 4064081 4067456 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 785000 498223 584809 585172 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.60 12.4 11.8 10.7 12 13 percent [+]
Employed Persons 28797.00 27500 27700 27700 28048 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3419.00 3880 3020 3100 3293 3220 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.10 53 52.9 53.2 52.83 54.9 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.32 2.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.00 24.5 24.1 22.3 19.73 25 percent [+]
Labour Costs 240.32 205 252 257 262 254 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1777.50 1778 1830 1830 2068 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 279.26 270 285 290 308 340 Index Points [+]
Population 79.81 80.51 82.15 82.15 82.15 84.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Wages High Skilled 2830.00 2830 2870 2870 2950 3200 TRY/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1380.00 1380 1420 1420 1480 1600 TRY/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 2832.10 2740 2768 2760 2570 3640 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 2870.00 2751 2762 2767 2772 2693 TRY/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1720.00 1619 1627 1631 1635 1566 TRY/Month [+]
Employment Rate 47.40 47 46.9 47.1 46.72 51 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 24850.90 25500 25700 25700 24253 28600 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 12.98 9.4 8.7 6.6 5.1 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 1.49 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.66 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 325.18 328 335 340 343 343 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 282.36 121 282 282 282 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 12.08 10.5 9.8 9 8.5 4.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 179.70 1698 154 160 165 164 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 312.21 319 324 324 317 366 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 17.30 15.5 14.2 12.1 10.5 4.5 percent [+]
Export Prices 95.05 102 93.78 93.34 92.91 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 90.31 86.3 87.96 87.51 87.06 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 15.78 13.2 12.1 10.8 9.5 4.5 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 321.23 316 325 334 332 362 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 124.62 122 125 127 123 158 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.00 7.75 7.75 7.5 7.25 5.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 14.53 12.4 12.2 11.8 14.08 8.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 437225236.40 453000000 425815201 424808060 423622112 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1630640154.00 1766000000 1578632888 1583033481 1583563181 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1683119336.30 1794000000 1630322372 1635580873 1636653060 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 135226.30 136434 136322 136132 135923 134014 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2975887334.00 3120000000 3061154238 3079110121 3089360041 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 1057334632.00 978000000 1027585112 1030575522 1032016442 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25 7 7 6.75 6.5 5 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 160.40 156 155 154 153 148 percent [+]
Lending Rate 9.25 9.25 9 8.5 8.5 6.75 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00 12 12 12 11.78 12 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 636534271.00 590000000 607157749 606491474 605703864 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 48018.00 46182 46128 46084 46047 45900 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -7324.23 -4500 -4900 -5300 -6762 -2000 USD Million [+]
Exports 13942.40 13200 13100 13800 12990 20400 USD Million [+]
Imports 21266.63 17700 18000 19100 20265 22400 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3827.00 -3230 -3240 -3860 -1781 -1950 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 -4.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 432352.00 424000 446372 448305 449410 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.25 111 108 108 109 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 31.00 -6120 1543 1584 1609 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12300.00 11800 12100 12100 11788 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 30.00 52.44 65.73 77.39 87.64 139 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 3653.00 4420 3860 4540 3250 3980 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2992947.00 1260000 1550000 2290000 1939800 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 456.13 446 456 445 444 382 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 [+]
Weapons Sales 277.00 316 321 326 331 348 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 50.00 50 49.85 49.93 50.01 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 31.2 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.6 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.10 -1.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 8.48 -28.7 -20.1 -12.2 -11.8 -20.2 TRY Billion [+]
Government Spending 51715524.70 3940000 53728136 54770094 49569663 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 51228395.00 40500000 39600000 42900000 36200000 42900000 TRL Billion [+]
Government Debt 867400.00 766000 870916 874427 875552 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 55068083.00 58200000 45200000 52100000 44900000 59700000 TRL Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 14973.70 14589 14633 14676 14720 14036 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 5763.00 12300 4030 3673 3389 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 106.30 104 107 107 99.78 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.90 53.4 53 52.9 50.92 51 [+]
Industrial Production 7.30 3.1 2.8 2.8 4.86 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.41 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 10.40 2.5 2.4 2.4 5.17 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.90 76.4 78 76.48 75.55 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 22079654.60 -921000 -2004955 -681744 3472321 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 1375.00 1900 837 790 761 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 100859.00 162000 67479 63697 60075 169000 [+]
Car Production 163460.00 157500 159700 144500 137800 165400 Units [+]
Car Registrations 110743.00 130000 104479 100510 98279 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 5.29 5.5 5.1 4.8 0.61 4.4 percent [+]
Internet Speed 7557.69 7454 7367 7271 7165 6113 KBps [+]
Steel Production 3305.63 2710 3205 3202 3194 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 4.60 -2.2 0.2 0.7 2.5 2 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.42 4.39 4.42 4.42 4.33 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 53.00 55 54 54 58 52 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 60.00 68 70 72 74 65 [+]
Electricity Production 23655.00 23800 24550 25058 24475 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 42 43 43 42 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 74 73 73 71 71 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 65.20 74.6 76.8 78.4 70.64 87.9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.8 -0.3 0.5 0.84 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.40 -0.4 0.5 1 6.06 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 270280414.20 269000000 236875492 247425751 254034383 288000000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 485182171.00 454000000 518632882 536641893 553081856 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1689477519.00 1485000000 1689126477 1704980444 1716816874 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 97.90 98.5 102 104 99.32 102 Index points [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.45 1.43 1.41 1.42 1.41 1.56 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 17.50 17.2 17.3 17.6 16.71 25 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Construction Output 0.50 3.5 3.2 3 3.14 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 246.10 252 264 271 268 339 Index points [+]
New Home Sales 70019.00 82500 52200 51300 48418 89400 units [+]
Housing Starts 18636.00 14200 9050 9810 7746 20600 [+]
Building Permits 199694.00 125000 89500 85200 79495 149000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 70279.00 70300 65100 60100 56239 78500 units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 61.10 61 61.2 61.2 60.23 61.7 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 21 21 21 21 22 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.63 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.59 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15.05 15.03 15.01 15 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 29.00 46.54 46.52 46.52 46.52 46.52 mm [+]
Temperature 0.00 2.07 4.31 19.53 17.04 4.26 celsius [+]