Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.30 11.8 10.7 12 12.7 13 percent
Inflation Rate 11.92 12.8 11.5 9.9 9.2 5.1 percent
Interest Rate 8.00 8 7.5 7.25 7.25 5.75 percent
Balance of Trade -6320.40 -4900 -5300 -7800 -2900 -2000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 3.80
3.89 3.99 4.1 4.22 4.7
Stock Market 115147.06
points
110002 105757 101672 97748 71336
Government Bond 10y 11.83
percent
10.97 11.07 11.18 11.26 12.36
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 11.10
percent
5.2 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.8
GDP 857.75
USD Billion
890 890 890 890 950
GDP Constant Prices 448956426.80
TRY THO
375000000 419000000 455000000 485000000 512000000
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130559821.50
TRY THO
122000000 139000000 146000000 155000000 185000000
GDP per capita 14071.17
USD
14840 14840 14840 14840 15960
GDP per capita PPP 23679.40
USD
24400 24800 25100 25700 27100
GDP From Agriculture 53890930.00
TRY THO
9700000 25400000 55100000 33600000 37400000
GDP From Construction 36121898.80
TRY THO
27632335 31282836 34384073 2180000 2340000
GDP From Manufacturing 67757878.70
TRY THO
68311581 71583284 67965504 8860000 9060000
GDP From Public Administration 39774313.98
TRY THO
40296020 40285210 39933565 1120000 1180000
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.30
percent
11.8 10.7 12 12.7 13
Employed Persons 28645.00
Thousand
27700 27700 28272 28100 30600
Unemployed Persons 3287.00
Thousand
3020 3100 3116 3920 3220
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.10
percent
52.9 53.2 52.97 53.8 54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.20
percent
2.4 2.4 2.32 2.4 2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.00
percent
24.1 22.3 18.95 24.7 25
Labour Costs 240.32
Index Points
253 258 263 222 254
Minimum Wages 2029.50
TRY/Month
2030 2030 2030 2030 2530
Wages in Manufacturing 279.26
Index Points
285 290 308 300 340
Population 79.81
Million
82.15 82.15 82.15 82.15 84.34
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages High Skilled 2830.00
TRY/Month
2870 2870 2950 2950 3200
Wages Low Skilled 1380.00
TRY/Month
1420 1420 1480 1480 1600
Part Time Employment 2832.10
Thousand
2768 2760 2570 2990 3640
Living Wage Family 2870.00
TRY/Month
2756 2762 2767 2772 2693
Living Wage Individual 1720.00
TRY/Month
1623 1627 1631 1635 1566
Employment Rate 47.60
percent
46.9 47.1 47.43 48 51
Full Time Employment 24850.90
Thousand
25700 25700 24629 26100 28600
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 11.92
percent
12.8 11.5 9.9 9.2 5.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.69
percent
0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 327.41
Index Points
334 342 347 354 390
Core Consumer Prices 283.90
Index Points
289 295 302 308 340
Core Inflation Rate 12.30
percent
9.8 9 8.5 6.6 4.2
GDP Deflator 179.70
Index Points
190 196 204 209 232
Producer Prices 316.48
Index Points
319 324 332 337 380
Producer Prices Change 15.47
percent
15.5 14.2 12.2 9.8 6.5
Export Prices 95.28
Index Points
98 99 102 105 110
Import Prices 91.17
Index Points
94 95 97 98 104
Food Inflation 13.79
percent
13.2 12.1 10.8 10.1 6.9
CPI Transportation 326.65
Index Points
332 338 343 349 378
Harmonised Consumer Prices 125.48
Index Points
130 136 142 157 190
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.00
percent
8 7.5 7.25 7.25 5.75
Interbank Rate 14.25
percent
14.5 13.75 13.25 12.75 9.5
Money Supply M1 449631796.20
TRY Thousand
485000000 507000000 534000000 551000000 816000000
Money Supply M2 1624675300.00
TRY Thousand
1824000000 1881000000 1926000000 1951000000 2637000000
Money Supply M3 1675831302.60
TRY Thousand
1862000000 1914000000 1951000000 1988000000 2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 139016.00
USD Million
138851 138745 138556 138353 135935
Banks Balance Sheet 3088112978.00
TRY Thousand
3260000000 3340000000 3490000000 3678000000 5109000000
Loans to Private Sector 1091506666.00
TRY Thousand
1201000000 1261000000 1321000000 1383000000 1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 6.75 6.5 6.5 5
Private Debt to GDP 170.80
percent
177 177 177 177 182
Lending Rate 9.25
percent
9.25 8.5 8.5 8.25 6.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Central Bank Balance Sheet 641436271.00
TRY Thousand
659000000 675000000 686000000 695000000 875000000
Foreign Stock Investment 52001.00
USD Million
51331 50417 49658 49026 46249
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade -6320.40
USD Million
-4900 -5300 -7800 -2900 -2000
Exports 14216.61
USD Million
13100 13800 12100 15600 20400
Imports 20537.01
USD Million
18000 19100 19900 18500 22400
Current Account -4200.00
USD Million
-3240 -3860 -4200 -2890 -1950
Current Account to GDP -3.80
percent
-3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -2.8
External Debt 437996.00
USD Million
465000 474000 483000 491000 591000
Terms of Trade 104.51
Index Points
108 109 110 111 117
Capital Flows 3387.00
USD Million
3220 2750 2910 2850 4740
Foreign Direct Investment 12300.00
USD Million
12100 12100 12100 12100 16500
Remittances 25.00
USD Million
45 45 45 45 65
Tourism Revenues 3653.00
USD Million
3860 5940 11850 5760 6600
Tourist Arrivals 1652795.00
1650000 3890000 4150000 1440000 1620000
Gold Reserves 525.79
Tonnes
544 560 570 576 546
Terrorism Index 7.52
7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
Weapons Sales 277.00
USD Million
296 302 309 316 348
Crude Oil Production 50.00
BBL/D/1K
50 50 50 50 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30
percent
32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.6
Government Budget -1.10
percent of GDP
-0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.4
Government Budget Value 10176927.00
TRY Thousand
-17100000 -13200000 -7400000 -29200000 -28400000
Government Spending 51715524.70
TRY THO
5290000 5560000 5250000 6690000 7870000
Government Revenues 63274109.00
TRY Thousand
39600000 42900000 36200000 41200000 42900000
Government Debt 890771.00
TRY Million
911000 921000 929000 945000 991000
Fiscal Expenditure 53097182.00
TRY Thousand
45200000 52100000 44900000 58600000 59700000
Military Expenditure 14973.70
USD Million
15636 15287 14938 14589 14036
Asylum Applications 19211.00
Persons
9500 5700 11900 9860 6450
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 103.30
Index Points
107 107 106 105 104
Manufacturing PMI 54.90
53 52.9 52.8 52.7 51
Industrial Production 7.00
percent
4.5 3.2 3 2.9 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 0.30
percent
-0.6 -0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5
Manufacturing Production 7.10
percent
5.1 4.4 2.9 2 1
Capacity Utilization 79.00
percent
79.5 79.7 79.6 79.4 78
Changes in Inventories 22079654.60
TRY THO
1218015 -3852839 14862833 -851000 -739000
Bankruptcies 2163.00
Companies
690 1150 915 1860 1710
Total Vehicle Sales 136240.00
74100 84100 72200 165000 169000
Car Production 163460.00
Units
159700 144500 137800 159800 165400
Car Registrations 109319.00
Cars
104500 96100 87100 132000 135000
Leading Economic Index 4.72
percent
5.1 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.4
Internet Speed 7557.69
KBps
7367 7271 7165 7052 6113
IP Addresses 8079762.00
IP
8023649 8003874 7976064 7949045 7741672
Steel Production 3115.30
Thousand Tonnes
3200 3020 2900 2720 2730
Mining Production 5.90
percent
2.6 2.4 2.2 1.9 2
Competitiveness Index 4.42
Points
4.42 4.42 4.42 4.42 4.47
Competitiveness Rank 53.00
53 53 53 53 51
Ease of Doing Business 60.00
59 59 59 59 57
Electricity Production 24286.00
Gigawatt-hour
23700 22600 24100 24000 24700
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
43 43 43 43 45
Corruption Rank 75.00
73 73 73 73 71
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 65.10
Index Points
69.9 72.2 75.5 82.5 87.9
Retail Sales MoM 0.70
percent
-0.3 0.5 -0.6 0.7 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.10
percent
2.5 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.3
Consumer Spending 270280414.20
TRY THO
229000000 251000000 274000000 275000000 288000000
Consumer Credit 493321204.00
TRY THO
518000000 536000000 553000000 569000000 651000000
Private Sector Credit 1733137015.00
TRY Thousand
1759000000 1794000000 1846000000 1914000000 2781000000
Economic Optimism Index 95.00
Index points
102 104 105 103 102
Gasoline Prices 1.48
USD/Liter
1.49 1.51 1.5 1.47 1.56
Households Debt To Gdp 17.50
percent of GDP
17.3 17.6 18 19 25
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Construction Output 0.50
percent
3.2 3 3 2.9 2.5
Housing Index 248.40
Index points
264 271 276 282 339
New Home Sales 59354.00
units
52200 51300 71500 84700 89400
Building Permits 275864.00
89500 85200 69900 137000 149000
Existing Home Sales 63378.00
units
65100 60100 72400 72100 78500
Home Ownership Rate 60.40
percent
61.2 61.2 61.2 61.2 61.7
Housing Starts 23792.00
9050 9810 7700 16500 20600
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 37.50
percent
37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 29.20
mm
64.08 50.06 15.42 59.68 48.36
Temperature 0.97
celsius
2.46 14.86 21.35 7.94 11.92