Turkey - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.60 9.9 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.5 percent
Inflation Rate 10.85 10.1 9.7 9 8.8 7.5 percent
Interest Rate 8.00 8 8 8 7.5 6.75 percent
Balance of Trade -5855.00 -5300 -7800 -6900 -4600 -4000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 32.5 32.5 32.5 34.2 36.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 4.67
4.11 4.21 4.32 4.43 4.89
Stock Market 103614.66
points
109035 104614 100387 96319 81640
Government Bond 10y 14.27
percent
12.71 13.13 13.55 14 15.91
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80
percent
0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.30
percent
7.9 6.2 5.9 5.1 3.8
GDP 857.75
USD Billion
890 890 890 925 950
GDP Constant Prices 464491409.40
TRY THO
442426037 477768386 491896403 416803134 533564947
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 137975535.90
TRY THO
134792286 139623199 146116093 119118318 158493587
GDP per capita 14071.17
USD
14840 14840 14840 15450 15960
GDP per capita PPP 23679.40
USD
25700 25700 25700 26400 27100
GDP From Agriculture 24860243.00
TRY THO
18704645 57508927 26326997 11047418 28557157
GDP From Construction 33714615.10
TRY THO
35628683 38327274 35703777 28502910 38728244
GDP From Manufacturing 79160617.00
TRY THO
76105228 72082270 83831093 73657177 90932425
GDP From Public Administration 43248488.96
TRY THO
43039909 41608789 45800150 45450575 49679880
Gdp From Services 106749235.70
TRY THO
98614796 106475100 113047441 94422240 122623689
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.60
percent
9.9 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.5
Employed Persons 28166.00
Thousand
29200 29500 30100 29200 34600
Unemployed Persons 3354.00
Thousand
3100 3280 2990 3850 3220
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.20
percent
53.2 53.4 53.2 53.2 54.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8
Youth Unemployment Rate 19.00
percent
19.9 20.1 18.9 20.2 20
Labour Costs 239.21
Index Points
246 250 254 258 285
Wages 2207.00
TRY/Month
2800 2800 2800 3000 3200
Wages in Manufacturing 285.94
Index Points
295 300 305 310 340
Minimum Wages 2029.50
TRY/Month
2030 2030 2030 2280 2530
Population 80.81
Million
82.15 82.15 82.15 83.42 84.34
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Wages Low Skilled 1380.00
TRY/Month
1480 1480 1480 1550 1600
Wages High Skilled 2830.00
TRY/Month
2950 2950 2950 3100 3200
Part Time Employment 2824.70
Thousand
2700 2900 2900 3200 3600
Living Wage Family 2870.00
TRY/Month
2910 2910 2910 2950 3100
Living Wage Individual 1720.00
TRY/Month
1750 1750 1750 1800 1850
Employment Rate 47.90
percent
47.1 47.9 48.4 47.1 51
Full Time Employment 24902.90
Thousand
25700 26100 26100 26400 28600
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 10.85
percent
10.1 9.7 9 8.8 7.5
Inflation Rate Mom 1.87
percent
0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 342.78
Index Points
341 344 357 366 414
Core Consumer Prices 296.48
Index Points
300 304 315 320 373
Core Inflation Rate 12.24
percent
12 11.5 11.1 10.6 8
GDP Deflator 185.90
Index Points
196 204 209 212 232
Producer Prices 341.88
Index Points
340 336 345 363 390
Producer Prices Change 16.37
percent
15.1 11.5 9.1 8.8 5.4
Export Prices 97.98
Index Points
99 100 101 101 105
Import Prices 92.58
Index Points
95 97 98 98 107
Food Inflation 8.81
percent
7.8 7.4 7 6.5 5.1
CPI Transportation 346.28
Index Points
322 337 356 364 413
Harmonised Consumer Prices 131.37
Index Points
131 132 137 140 159
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 7.5 6.75
Interbank Rate 16.41
percent
16.41 16.41 16.41 15.91 15.16
Money Supply M1 463125544.80
TRY Thousand
507000000 534000000 551000000 574000000 816000000
Money Supply M2 1722685642.20
TRY Thousand
1881000000 1926000000 1951000000 2091000000 2637000000
Money Supply M3 1782806870.90
TRY Thousand
1914000000 1951000000 1988000000 2109000000 2673000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 139746.30
USD Million
133680 133950 134308 134354 134252
Banks Balance Sheet 3219318086.00
TRY Thousand
3340000000 3490000000 3678000000 3751000000 5109000000
Loans to Private Sector 1133784054.00
TRY Thousand
1261000000 1321000000 1383000000 1433000000 1678000000
Deposit Interest Rate 7.25
percent
7.25 7.25 7.25 6.75 6
Private Debt to GDP 170.80
percent
177 177 177 179 182
Lending Rate 9.25
percent
9.25 9.25 9.25 8.75 8
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Central Bank Balance Sheet 674240222.00
TRY Thousand
675000000 686000000 695000000 708000000 875000000
Foreign Stock Investment 40834.00
USD Million
42311 43384 43236 43230 43243
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -5855.00
USD Million
-5300 -7800 -6900 -4600 -4000
Exports 15586.63
USD Million
14800 14100 15600 17200 20400
Imports 21441.71
USD Million
20100 21900 22500 21800 24400
Current Account -4812.00
USD Million
-3600 -5600 -6800 -4200 -3200
Current Account to GDP -5.50
percent
-4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -3.2
External Debt 453207.00
USD Million
474000 483000 491000 499000 591000
Terms of Trade 105.83
Index Points
104 103 103 103 98.13
Capital Flows 1896.00
USD Million
2750 2910 2850 3450 4740
Foreign Direct Investment 12300.00
USD Million
12500 12500 12500 14200 16500
Remittances 24.00
USD Million
45 45 45 51 65
Tourism Revenues 1613.00
USD Million
5940 11850 5760 4250 6600
Tourist Arrivals 2139766.00
3890000 4150000 1440000 1690000 1620000
Gold Reserves 582.20
Tonnes
616 644 672 689 681
Terrorism Index 7.52
7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
Weapons Sales 244.00
USD Million
271 262 252 251 214
Crude Oil Production 50.00
BBL/D/1K
50 50 50 50 50
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30
percent
32.5 32.5 32.5 34.2 36.6
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP
-0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4
Government Budget Value -22217565.00
TRY Thousand
-13200000 -7400000 -29200000 -16700000 -28400000
Government Spending 70141640.90
TRY THO
58645612 57026381 74279998 59050117 80572256
Government Revenues 45773155.00
TRY Thousand
42900000 36200000 55100000 40700000 57400000
Government Debt 921100.00
TRY Million
911900 924300 936200 938700 962000
Fiscal Expenditure 67990720.00
TRY Thousand
56100000 43600000 84300000 57400000 85800000
Military Expenditure 19579.90
USD Million
15341 15053 14765 14778 14204
Asylum Applications 11013.00
Persons
5700 11900 9860 9100 6450
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 111.20
Index Points
109 111 113 113 110
Manufacturing PMI 48.90
53.4 53.4 54.2 54.5 53.2
Industrial Production 7.60
percent
5.6 5.1 4.6 3.8 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent
-0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5
Manufacturing Production 7.90
percent
5.1 4.9 4.2 3.6 2
Capacity Utilization 77.30
percent
75.9 77.4 78.5 78.8 78
Changes in Inventories 8167150.20
TRY THO
-3800000 15100000 -1780000 -3200000 -1560000
Bankruptcies 780.00
Companies
1150 915 1860 680 1710
Total Vehicle Sales 71126.00
84100 72200 165000 77500 169000
Car Production 138504.00
Units
144500 137800 159800 162500 165400
Car Registrations 94588.00
96100 87100 132000 106900 135000
Leading Economic Index 4.42
percent
4.8 4.7 4.9 4.5 3
Internet Speed 7557.69
KBps
7472 7680 7462 7673 7528
IP Addresses 8079762.00
IP
8053857 8061923 8070964 8077035 8092863
Steel Production 3368.15
Thousand Tonnes
3020 2900 2720 3400 2730
Mining Production 10.70
percent
9.9 7.5 4.4 3.2 2
Competitiveness Index 4.42
Points
4.42 4.42 4.42 4.45 4.47
Competitiveness Rank 53.00
53 53 53 52 51
Ease of Doing Business 60.00
59 59 59 58 57
Electricity Production 23242.00
Gigawatt-hour
22600 24100 24000 23800 24700
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
41 41 41 42 43
Corruption Rank 81.00
80 80 80 79 78
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 69.90
Index Points
71.6 72.8 74.7 75 82.5
Retail Sales MoM 0.50
percent
0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 7.40
percent
5.8 5.9 4.9 4.5 2.5
Consumer Spending 283428568.50
TRY THO
264892341 285094549 300150854 255762352 325576633
Consumer Credit 509770184.00
TRY THO
526000000 541000000 559000000 568000000 651000000
Private Sector Credit 1800638614.00
TRY Thousand
1794000000 1846000000 1914000000 1982000000 2781000000
Economic Optimism Index 98.30
Index points
104 105 103 104 102
Households Debt To Gdp 17.30
percent of GDP
18 18 18 22 25
Gasoline Prices 1.51
USD/Liter
1.47 1.39 1.31 1.23 0.86
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 256.00
Index points
266 274 282 289 339
New Home Sales 50701.00
units
51500 74500 84700 60900 91400
Building Permits 77190.00
215200 289900 95000 102500 149000
Existing Home Sales 60204.00
units
60100 72400 72100 77200 79500
Housing Starts 8503.00
22010 25100 9500 12700 19600
Home Ownership Rate 60.40
percent
61.2 61.2 61.2 61.5 61.7
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 37.50
percent
37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 29.20
mm
50.06 15.42 59.68 64.21 48.36
Temperature 0.97
celsius
14.86 21.35 7.94 2.46 11.92