Turkey | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Turkey including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Turkey economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 11.70 10.4 11.7 12.4 11.8 13 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 11.72 9.7 8.3 6.5 6.2 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 8.00 8 8 7.75 7.75 5.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -4945.41 -5200 -3400 -4500 -4900 -2000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 31.2 31.2 31.2 32.5 36.6 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 3.51 3.56 3.59 3.7 3.66 4.22 [+]
Stock Market 99638.65 97700 96800 93800 94800 79000 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 10.17 10.34 10.44 10.55 10.65 12.29 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.00 5.5 5.9 5.4 5.2 3.8 percent [+]
GDP 717.88 739 739 739 754 816 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 366056768.60 398000000 411000000 438000000 362000000 512000000 TRY THO [+]
Gross National Product 31671243.40 31400000 37400000 34800000 30587036 39800000 TRY THO [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 104670719.90 8030000 7920000 8590000 106414441 9110000 TRY THO [+]
GDP per capita 11522.71 11750 11535 12050 11621 12660 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 19460.48 21400 19645 22000 19828 24100 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 9383813.00 1277000 6654000 3124000 22347198 3478000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Construction 25614200.70 2050000 2080000 2070000 28764736 2340000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 64532830.10 8470000 7660000 8730000 62956706 9060000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Mining 213551.90 215000 259000 227000 171897 246000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Public Administration 40565802.07 970000 1050000 1080000 41853709 1180000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Transport 4095462.00 4150000 4270000 4420000 3973295 4930000 TRY THO [+]
GDP From Utilities 587421.00 567000 617000 785000 497630 873000 TRY THO [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.70 10.4 11.7 12.4 11.8 13 percent [+]
Employed Persons 27489.00 27300 27300 27500 27700 30600 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 3642.00 3080 3340 3880 3020 3220 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.70 52.6 52.8 53 52.9 54.9 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.60 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.8 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 23.30 22.1 23.6 24.5 24.1 25 percent [+]
Labour Costs 224.57 217 225 205 248 254 Index Points [+]
Wages 1512.00 2130 2130 2250 2250 3210 TRY/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 255.26 260 265 270 285 340 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1777.50 1778 1778 1778 1830 1930 TRY/Month [+]
Population 79.81 79.86 79.9 79.96 80.25 84.34 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 58.00 58 58 58 58 58 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 2407.40 2321 2315 2314 2313 2313 TRY/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1656.70 1582 1571 1565 1563 1561 TRY/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 2712.00 2500 2500 2740 2982 3640 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 46.60 46.6 46.8 47 46.9 51 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 23617.60 25300 25300 25500 25700 28600 Thousand [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 11.72 9.7 8.3 6.5 6.2 3.8 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.45 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 310.61 301 316 317 318 319 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 267.67 116 272 121 283 141 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 9.38 8.7 8.2 7.4 7 3.6 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 146.50 1712 1686 1698 155 155 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 295.31 301 312 319 324 366 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 15.26 9.6 8.9 7.5 6.6 3.4 percent [+]
Export Prices 91.59 95.6 97.4 102 91.66 110 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 86.83 86.7 86.5 86.3 87.19 104 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 16.91 7.4 6.8 6.2 6 3.6 percent [+]
Cpi Transportation 295.21 299 307 316 325 362 Index Points [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 119.04 117 119 122 125 158 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 8.00 8 8 7.75 7.75 5.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 12.71 12.3 12.5 12.4 12.2 8.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 411456104.80 401000000 437779881 453000000 473052343 816000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M2 1488570304.00 1599000000 1548951671 1766000000 1635299253 2637000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Money Supply M3 1532979042.00 1622000000 1595157467 1794000000 1687676649 2673000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 126910.10 126082 125783 125768 125768 125768 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 2789143407.00 2896000000 3173491546 3120000000 3408059541 5109000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Loans to Private Sector 981011646.00 918000000 1061366515 978000000 1150990004 1278000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 14.60 14 14 14 13 9 percent [+]
Lending Rate 9.25 9.5 9.5 9.25 9 6.75 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 160.40 159 163 167 166 165 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 572978906.00 571000000 576785825 590000000 578100094 875000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Foreign Stock Investment 47838.00 47754 47770 47770 47770 47770 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -4945.41 -5200 -3400 -4500 -4900 -2000 USD Million [+]
Exports 12838.67 13600 11500 13200 13100 20400 USD Million [+]
Imports 17784.08 18800 14900 17700 18000 22400 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3615.00 -4240 -2950 -3230 -3240 -1950 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.80 -4.4 -4.4 -4.4 -3.6 -2.8 percent [+]
External Debt 404182.00 416000 401001 424000 396892 469000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 105.48 109 110 111 107 117 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 7488.00 -1500 2820 -6120 2984 4740 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12300.00 11800 11800 11800 12100 16500 USD Million [+]
Remittances 29.00 37.62 42.89 41.42 40.56 40.91 USD Million [+]
Tourism Revenues 1234.00 4780 7960 4420 3860 3980 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 2070322.00 2320000 2780000 1260000 1550000 1220000 [+]
Gold Reserves 427.84 407 387 406 392 378 Tonnes [+]
Weapons Sales 277.00 315 295 291 295 331 USD Million [+]
Terrorism Index 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 [+]
Crude Oil Production 48.00 50 48.36 50 48.36 50 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 28.30 31.2 31.2 31.2 32.5 36.6 percent [+]
Government Budget -1.00 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -0.9 -0.4 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 6.39 -8700000 -9300000 -17700000 -5600000 -1680000 TRY THO [+]
Government Spending 51556190.50 3740000 3790000 3940000 54805639 5870000 TRY THO [+]
Government Revenues 55943866.00 42700000 35400000 40500000 39600000 42900000 TRY THO [+]
Government Debt 806400.00 742000 833453 766000 872634 825000 TRY Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 47263770.00 51400000 44700000 58200000 45200000 59700000 TRY THO [+]
Military Expenditure 14973.70 15445 15124 14802 14869 14623 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 8236.00 14225 7863 12300 7977 6450 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 112.40 110 106 107 107 104 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.50 52.8 53.2 53.4 53 51 [+]
Industrial Production 6.70 2.2 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 2.30 -0.4 0.7 0.9 -0.6 0.5 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.30 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 1 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 79.00 78.7 78.62 76.4 78.08 78 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -7596894.10 -95000 76000 -921000 -6222871 -739000 TRY THO [+]
Bankruptcies 861.00 985 1153 1900 1122 1710 Companies [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 85422.00 94500 68200 162000 74518 169000 [+]
Car Production 104653.00 84600 71500 79900 102172 87000 Units [+]
Car Registrations 99260.00 117500 88700 130000 99485 135000 Cars [+]
Leading Economic Index 3.62 4.6 5 5.5 5.1 4.4 percent [+]
Mining Production 1.30 -6 -4.8 -2.2 0.2 2 percent [+]
Steel Production 3287.50 2820 3084 2710 3120 2730 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.42 4.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 55.00 55 55 55 54 52 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 69.00 68 68 68 67 65 [+]
Electricity Production 22311.00 22600 21900 23800 23282 24700 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 42 42 42 43 45 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 75.00 74 74 74 73 71 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 70.00 69.9 71.2 74.6 76.8 87.9 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.4 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY -0.10 -2.6 -1.6 -0.4 0.5 2.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 225721901.90 23300000 24000000 23900000 236872369 27800000 TRY THO [+]
Consumer Credit 447505921.00 429000000 469543094 454000000 496385962 603000000 TRY THO [+]
Private Sector Credit 1560215240.00 1435000000 1670361234 1485000000 1790864950 1783000000 TRY Thousand [+]
Economic Optimism Index 100.50 97.6 99.2 101 102 102 Index points [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.45 1.44 1.42 1.43 1.41 1.56 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 18.20 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.3 25 percent of GDP [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Construction Output 0.50 5.7 4.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 percent [+]
Housing Index 233.70 234 245 252 264 339 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 10074.00 9720 7460 14200 9050 20600 [+]
New Home Sales 56376.00 51400 50800 82500 52200 89400 units [+]
Building Permits 93930.00 83400 67600 125000 89500 149000 [+]
Existing Home Sales 72547.00 59000 49800 70300 65100 78500 units [+]
Home Ownership Rate 60.70 61 61 61 61.2 61.7 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00 20 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 37.50 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.50 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]