Taiwan’s trade surplus shrank to USD 4.65 billion in November of 2018 from USD 5.88 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. It compares with market expectations of a 3.97 billion surplus. Exports fell 3.4% to USD 27.8 billion, against market estimates of a 2% gain, as sales declined for machinery & electrical equipment (-4.4%); base metals & articles of base metal (-6.4%) and plastic & articles thereof (-5.6%). Among major trading partners, exports went down to China (-3.4%); Vietnam (-6%); Malaysia (-13.6%) and Philippines (-21.4%). Imports went up 1.1% to USD 23.16 billion, below estimates of 9.7%. Higher purchases of mineral products (+27.5%), namely petroleum (+55.8%), were partly offset by lower imports of machinery & electrical equipment (-2.1%); chemicals (-1.6%) and base metals & articles of base metal (-4.7%). Imports rose from the US (8.1%); Korea (9.1%) and Vietnam (11.7%); while those from China (-4.6%); Japan (-27%) and Singapore (-19%) declined. Balance of Trade in Taiwan averaged 1595.30 USD Million from 1981 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6662.67 USD Million in September of 2017 and a record low of -847.44 USD Million in February of 2006.
Balance of Trade in Taiwan is expected to be 3800.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Taiwan to stand at 2800.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Taiwan Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 3400.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.