Retail sales in Taiwan increased 0.92 percent year-on-year in October 2018, following an upwardly revised 3.04 percent gain in the previous month. Sales advanced at a slower pace for household supplies (1.3 percent vs 3.4 percent in September); pharmaceutical & medical goods (3.1 percent vs 5.3 percent) and fuel products (15.9 percent vs 20.0 percent); and declined for food, beverages & tobacco (-1.3 percent vs 3.5 percent); building materials (-5.8 percent vs 0.2 percent) and fabrics & clothes (-2.0 percent vs 4.7 percent). Contrarily, sales rebounded for autos & motorcycles (1.7 percent vs -1.7 percent) and fell less for information & communications equipment & electrical household appliances (-2.0 percent from -6.0 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went up 5.6 percent, after an upwardly revised 2.1 percent gain in September. Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan averaged 2.90 percent from 2010 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 22.90 percent in January of 2011 and a record low of -8.37 percent in February of 2017.
Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan is expected to be 3.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Taiwan to stand at 4.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Taiwan Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.