South Africa Sees Surprise Inflation Slowdown in August

South Africa’s annual inflation rate fell for the second month to 3% in February 2026, the lowest since June 2025, slightly below market forecasts of 3.1%. The continued slowdown was largely driven by a 2.1% drop in transportation prices, following a 0.2% fall the previous month, reflecting a sharper decline in fuels (-10.1% vs -3.7%). The slower price growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.7% vs 4.4%) and in health (4.4% vs 5%) also contributed. On the other hand, price increases were most notable for alcoholic beverages & tobacco (5% vs 4.5%); housing & utilities (4.8% vs 4.8%); restaurants & hotels (3.8% vs 3.5%). The annual core inflation rate, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, eased to a seven-month low of 3% in February, down from January's 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4%, after a 0.2% increase in the prior month.

South Africa’s annual inflation rate edged down to 3.5% in January 2026 from 3.6% in the prior month, though slightly above analysts' estimates of 3.4%. Lower transportation costs (-0.2% vs 1% in December), largely reflecting a decline in fuel prices (-3.7% vs 0.6%), were the main drag on overall price growth. Meanwhile, inflation in the heavyweight categories of housing and utilities (4.8% vs 4.9%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.4% vs 4.4%) remained elevated, continuing to support overall price pressures. Food inflation was underpinned by higher meat prices (13.5% vs 12.6%), amid persistent supply constraints linked to foot-and-mouth disease. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, rose to a near one-year high of 3.4% in January, from 3.3% in December. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, maintaining the same pace as the previous month.

South Africa’s annual inflation rate inched up to 3.6% in December 2025 from 3.5% in the prior month, in line with analysts' expectations. The headline inflation rate remains within the 1 percentage point tolerance band of the SARB's new 3% target. The main contributors to the increase were housing & utilities (4.9%), food & non-alcoholic beverages (4.4%) and insurance and financial services (7%). The core inflation rate, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, rose to 3.3% in December, the highest in ten months, from 3.2% in November. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, after decreasing by 0.1% in the previous month. The average inflation rate for 2025 was 3.2%, marking the lowest level in 21 years and below the central bank’s 3.3% forecast.