Ireland’s retail trade decreased 0.4 percent from a month earlier in December of 2018, after an upwardly revised 0.5 percent fall in November. It was the second straight monthly decline in retail trade. The sectors with the largest monthly volume decreases were department stores (-7.3 percent); books, newspapers & stationery (-3.3 percent) and electrical goods (-2.2 percent), while the biggest gains were recorded for food, beverages & tobacco (3.7 percent); fuel (1.9 percent) and pharmaceuticals, medical & cosmetic articles (1.7 percent). If motor trades are excluded, retail sales rose 0.7 percent in December, following a 0.5 percent increase in November. Annual retail trade growth advanced to 3.7 percent in December from a downwardly revised 3.2 percent in the previous month. Retail Sales MoM in Ireland averaged 0.21 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 14.60 percent in July of 2015 and a record low of -14.40 percent in January of 2009.
Retail Sales MoM in Ireland is expected to be -0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Ireland to stand at 0.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ireland Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.