Ireland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ireland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ireland economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.20 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.20 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 5 percent
Inflation Rate 0.40 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 3971600.00 5700000 5700000 3669711 5600000 5400000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 75.40 68.6 68.6 68.6 68.6 63 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 1.22
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.07
Stock Market 7157.12
points
6865 6667 6475 6289 4978
Government Bond 10Y 0.99
percent
0.72 0.73 0.74 0.85 0.82
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 4.20
percent
1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 10.50
percent
4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 2.9
GDP 294.05
USD Billion
295 295 297 295 306
GDP Constant Prices 75207.00
EUR Million
76900 78700 76166 82900 95600
Gross National Product 61396.00
EUR Million
56411 60444 57643 53200 55400
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 13135.00
EUR Million
14124 18740 14320 14500 16300
GDP per capita 66787.14
USD
73800 73800 73800 73800 75500
GDP per capita PPP 62828.34
USD
71500 71700 62120 72600 74800
GDP From Agriculture 713.00
EUR Million
670 649 631 1440 1510
GDP From Construction 2062.00
EUR Million
2055 2052 2049 1620 1750
GDP From Manufacturing 25565.00
EUR Million
24651 24615 24221 22680 23920
GDP From Public Administration 7464.00
EUR Million
7500 7550 7600 7700 8100
GDP From Transport 8233.00
EUR Million
8280 8292 8291 14400 15800
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.20
percent
5.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 5
Employed Persons 2191.90
Thousand
2095 2100 2443 2200 2300
Unemployed Persons 163.50
Thousand
138 136 163 137 141
Unemployment Change 3059.00
Persons
-4720 4910 -396 2280 1040
Part Time Employment 434.30
Thousand
456 458 429 478 498
Full Time Employment 1750.90
Thousand
1670 1680 1967 1750 1880
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.80
percent
61 61.2 62.71 62 64
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.10
percent
4 3.7 2.16 3.7 3.4
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.70
percent
12.5 12.2 12 11.8 10.5
Labour Costs 81.50
Index Points
92 94 82.09 100 110
Minimum Wages 1563.25
EUR/Month
1580 1580 1580 1580 1620
Wages in Manufacturing 826.53
EUR/Week
872 834 830 856 872
Population 4.77
Million
4.86 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.94
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Initial Jobless Claims 37833.00
Persons
40400 41122 42699 39500 38900
Productivity 139.10
Index Points
145 146 139 148 155
Employment Change 1.10
percent
0.6 0.5 0.74 0.5 0.4
Employment Rate 68.00
percent
66.2 66.4 68.07 67 68
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.40
percent
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.4 0.4 0 0.5 0.6
Harmonised Consumer Prices 99.90
Index Points
101 103 105 107 123
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.40
Index Points
102 104 108 110 125
Core Consumer Prices 100.20
Index Points
102 104 106 108 121
Core Inflation Rate 0.20
percent
1.4 1.6 0.78 1.7 1.9
GDP Deflator 99.78
Index Points
99.95 101 99.99 121 129
Producer Prices 102.80
Index Points
117 117 103 121 132
Export Prices 94.50
Index Points
105 105 92.62 115 114
Import Prices 96.60
Index Points
103 103 94.94 112 111
Producer Prices Change -3.60
percent
1.2 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.4
CPI Housing Utilities 103.60
Index Points
105 107 109 111 125
CPI Transportation 101.30
Index Points
103 105 107 109 119
Food Inflation -1.50
percent
0.5 1 1.3 1.5 2.3
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
0.08 0.12 0.7 0.5 1
Money Supply M1 158234.00
EUR Million
158408 158185 157948 171000 201000
Money Supply M2 202021.00
EUR Million
202921 202791 202610 239000 290000
Money Supply M3 225101.00
EUR Million
224978 224021 222959 267000 342000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3701.60
EUR Million
3674 3662 3648 3860 4880
Loans to Private Sector 41522.00
EUR Million
43788 46025 48532 80300 102200
Private Debt to GDP 421.94
percent
416 415 406 412 397
Central Bank Balance Sheet 93195.00
EUR Million
94027 93409 92048 101500 115700
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 3971600.00
EUR Thousand
5700000 5700000 3669711 5600000 5400000
Exports 10352700.00
EUR Thousand
11800000 12000000 9898193 12200000 12500000
Imports 6381100.00
EUR Thousand
6100000 6300000 6138123 6600000 7100000
Current Account 14488.00
EUR Million
4650 5900 10324 5850 3560
Current Account to GDP 4.70
percent
3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.6
External Debt 2033331.00
EUR Million
2390000 2420000 1977858 2590000 2740000
Terms of Trade 97.80
Index Points
106 106 101 107 111
Capital Flows 4785.00
EUR Million
-1803 -2564 -938 -4000 -2100
Tourist Arrivals 3095.60
Thousand
1980 4660 3100 2850 3600
Gold Reserves 6.00
Tonnes
5.98 5.98 5.97 5.96 5.92
Terrorism Index 3.14
3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14
Weapons Sales 13.00
USD Million
14.36 16.68 19 21.32 14.88
Foreign Direct Investment 26019.00
EUR Million
7599 6440 6434 6408 6327
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.40
percent
68.6 68.6 68.6 68.6 63
Government Budget -0.70
percent of GDP
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8
Government Budget Value 601.00
EUR Million
-1100 -1100 745 200 500
Government Spending 7271.00
EUR Million
7283 7287 7281 7850 7980
Government Spending to GDP 28.00
percent
30 30 30.62 30 28.2
Government Revenues 12389.00
EUR Million
12900 12900 12985 18500 19200
Government Debt 211188.00
EUR Million
210000 212000 220669 216000 226000
Fiscal Expenditure 12530.00
EUR Million
14000 14000 13084 18300 18700
Military Expenditure 992.70
USD Million
994 993 992 991 987
Asylum Applications 335.00
persons
170 190 277 220 190
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 22.00
Index Points
36 38 42 47 59
Services PMI 60.40
Index Points
57 57.4 58.49 55.4 53.8
Manufacturing PMI 59.10
54 55 55.86 54.7 52.9
Industrial Production -10.90
percent
4.8 4.4 3.79 3.8 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -9.40
percent
1 -0.6 0.7 -0.2 0.8
Manufacturing Production -11.10
percent
6.2 5.5 4.28 4.6 2.1
Changes in Inventories 1759.00
EUR Million
1105 604 61.73 507 289
Car Registrations 601.00
Cars
7046 9118 9050 1070 1180
Internet Speed 15614.31
KBps
14921 14786 14607 14417 13164
IP Addresses 1663376.00
IP
1589772 1580819 1574566 1569608 1530019
Mining Production -8.80
percent
3.72 4 4.51 3.6 2.6
Competitiveness Index 5.16
Points
5.22 5.22 5.13 5.22 5.29
Competitiveness Rank 24.00
22 22 23 21 19
Ease of Doing Business 17.00
15 16 15 16 14
Electricity Production 2492.00
Gigawatt-hour
2332 2215 2226 2500 2600
Corruption Index 73.00
Points
75 75 75 75 77
Corruption Rank 19.00
17 17 18 17 15
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.20
Index Points
105 106 102 109 103
Retail Sales MoM 2.60
percent
0.8 -0.4 0.18 0.2 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 6.80
percent
2.5 2.3 3.29 3.8 2.7
Consumer Spending 24562.00
EUR Million
24636 24757 24779 26600 28900
Disposable Personal Income 226717.00
EUR Million
231711 233997 236282 224000 244000
Personal Savings 8.60
percent
9.2 15 7.81 -1 -2.9
Private Sector Credit 178424.00
EUR Million
123392 123392 123392 234000 277000
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 2.28 1.25 1.75
Consumer Credit 12737.00
EUR Million
12892 13015 13133 15800 19700
Gasoline Prices 1.67
USD/Liter
1.68 1.47 1.67 1.51 1.57
Households Debt To Gdp 49.90
percent of GDP
54.2 54 47.9 50.6 44.2
Households Debt To Income 153.01
percent
144 144 142 141 132
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 100.70
Index Points
98 100 91.26 104 115
New Home Sales 656.00
dwellings
215 245 556 290 360
Building Permits 1670.00
1198 1341 1725 1590 2120
Construction Output 18.40
percent
4.6 4.4 15.06 3.7 3.4
Construction Pmi 58.00
56.6 56.1 58.18 53.7 52.9
Existing Home Sales 3250.00
dwellings
2570 2890 2795 3460 3890
Home Ownership Rate 69.80
percent
70.7 70.7 70.68 70.7 71.2
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.50
percent
12.5 12.5 13 12.5 12.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 47 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 14.75
percent
14.75 14.75 15 14.75 14.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.75
percent
10.75 10.75 10.78 10.75 10.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4.01 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Temperature 7.77
celsius
5.51 10.78 14.13 7.36 9.65
Precipitation 272.63
mm
95.83 72.66 90.18 117 96.08