Ireland | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ireland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ireland economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.00 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.7 0.8 1 1.2 2.1 percent [+]
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 4065700.00 5800000 5700000 5700000 3661330 5400000 EUR Thousand [+]
Government Debt to GDP 75.40 71.9 68.6 68.6 68.6 63 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 1.18 1.16 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.99 [+]
Stock Market 6896.27 6790 6720 6650 6590 5830 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 0.58 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.82 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.80 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 2.9 percent [+]
GDP 294.05 285 295 295 300 306 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 71147.00 74300 76900 78700 70326 95600 EUR Million [+]
Gross National Product 54224.00 52500 52678 52595 51943 55400 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 22128.00 13400 18979 22300 18279 16300 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 66787.14 72600 73800 73800 73800 75500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 62828.34 71300 71500 71700 60752 74800 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 779.00 1400 737 717 699 1510 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 1984.00 1570 1977 1975 1973 1750 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 24398.00 22240 23816 23590 23291 23920 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 7436.00 7450 7500 7550 7600 8100 EUR Million [+]
Gdp From Services 20231.00 21270 20320 20293 20262 24580 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Transport 8086.00 13800 8020 7994 7967 15800 EUR Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.00 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 2062.90 2090 2095 2100 2048 2300 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 141.50 141 138 136 142 141 Thousand [+]
Unemployment Change -7827.00 2980 -4720 4910 -884 1040 Persons [+]
Part Time Employment 432.50 454 456 458 415 498 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 1634.50 1650 1670 1680 1665 1880 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.80 60.9 61 61.2 59.24 64 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.60 4 4 3.7 3.02 3.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 14.80 12.7 12.5 12.2 18.37 10.5 percent [+]
Labour Costs 81.50 89 92 94 82.09 110 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 1563.25 1563 1563 1572 1561 1600 EUR/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 870.81 849 872 834 866 872 EUR/Week [+]
Population 4.77 4.77 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.94 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 33637.00 39900 37304 38098 39722 38900 Persons [+]
Productivity 139.10 144 145 146 139 155 Index Points [+]
Employment Change 1.10 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.68 0.4 percent [+]
Employment Rate 65.70 66 66.2 66.4 65.3 68 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 0.60 0.7 0.8 1 1.2 2.1 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.21 0.6 percent [+]
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.10 106 108 110 99.94 126 Index Points [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.70 106 108 110 100 125 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 100.70 104 106 108 100 121 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 0.40 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.99 1.9 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 101.67 116 100 101 100 129 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 101.90 115 117 117 101 132 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 89.40 107 105 105 94.78 114 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 97.50 103 103 103 88.11 111 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change -2.70 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 102.80 102 102 101 101 93.58 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 100.00 105 105 105 99.2 118 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -1.20 -0.2 0.5 1 1.3 2.3 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate -0.33 -0.05 0.08 0.12 0.92 1 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 156741.00 159000 154740 154513 154275 201000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M2 201049.00 213000 200943 200868 200709 290000 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 218929.00 247000 220441 219385 218335 342000 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3649.20 3660 3563 3552 3542 4880 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 40697.00 71500 41975 43646 45751 102200 EUR Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 421.94 417 416 415 405 397 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 92839.00 95000 93897 92477 90857 115700 EUR Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 4065700.00 5800000 5700000 5700000 3661330 5400000 EUR Thousand [+]
Exports 9601000.00 11600000 11800000 12000000 9361047 12500000 EUR Thousand [+]
Imports 5535300.00 5800000 6100000 6300000 5326551 7100000 EUR Thousand [+]
Current Account -872.00 7560 4650 5900 790 3560 EUR Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.70 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.6 percent [+]
External Debt 2034086.00 2350000 2390000 2420000 1970798 2740000 EUR Million [+]
Terms of Trade 91.70 104 106 106 103 111 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -24730.00 -4500 -1899 -10032 -3028 -2100 EUR Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3095.60 2560 1980 4660 3000 3600 Thousand [+]
Gold Reserves 6.00 5.98 5.97 5.96 5.95 5.9 Tonnes [+]
Terrorism Index 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.43 3.25 3.43 [+]
Weapons Sales 13.00 17.65 21.15 20.98 20.81 14.88 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 25316.00 8459 6463 5421 5528 5810 EUR Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 75.40 71.9 68.6 68.6 68.6 63 percent [+]
Government Budget -0.70 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 601.00 -600 -1100 -1100 969 500 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending 7213.00 7350 7218 7210 7202 7980 EUR Million [+]
Government Spending to GDP 28.00 32.2 30 30 32.3 28.2 percent [+]
Government Revenues 12389.00 17800 12900 12900 13926 19200 EUR Million [+]
Government Debt 200569.00 208000 210000 212000 188851 226000 EUR Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 12530.00 18400 14000 14000 13250 18700 EUR Million [+]
Military Expenditure 992.70 991 991 990 990 987 USD Million [+]
Asylum Applications 210.00 250 170 190 222 190 persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 17.00 32 36 38 15.91 59 [+]
Services PMI 57.50 56.6 57 57.4 57.27 53.8 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 54.40 53.8 54 55 53.67 52.9 [+]
Industrial Production -3.20 4.2 4.8 4.4 4.63 2.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.70 -0.8 1 -0.6 0.7 0.8 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.20 5.6 6.2 5.5 5.03 2.1 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 690.00 786 543 -65.71 302 239 EUR Million [+]
Car Registrations 3255.00 1000 8769 9027 8937 1180 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 15614.31 15167 14921 14786 14607 13164 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 1663376.00 1593505 1589772 1580819 1574566 1530019 IP [+]
Mining Production -16.20 4.8 4.64 4 4.52 2.6 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.16 5.18 5.22 5.22 5.13 5.29 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 24.00 23 22 22 23 19 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 17.00 17 17 16 16 14 [+]
Electricity Production 2359.00 2400 2269 2293 2273 2600 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 73.00 74 75 75 75 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 19.00 18 17 17 18 15 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 104.80 104 105 106 103 103 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -2.40 -0.2 0.8 -0.4 0.18 0.5 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 1.20 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.93 2.7 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 24110.00 25300 24111 24100 24054 28900 EUR Million [+]
Disposable Personal Income 226717.00 211000 240146 241724 243301 244000 EUR Million [+]
Personal Savings 7.34 1.5 9.2 15 14.08 -2.9 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 176750.00 209000 123032 123032 123032 277000 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 1.00 1 1 1 2.61 1.75 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 12795.00 13800 13035 13155 13271 19700 EUR Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.58 1.48 1.59 1.47 1.58 1.57 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 51.00 54.6 54.2 54 45.05 44.2 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 153.01 144 144 144 125 132 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 99.90 96 98 100 91.09 115 Index Points [+]
New Home Sales 638.00 270 215 245 510 360 dwellings [+]
Building Permits 1484.00 1460 1198 1341 1614 2120 [+]
Construction Output 13.50 4.8 4.6 4.4 7.51 3.4 percent [+]
Construction Pmi 54.50 57.7 56.6 56.1 58.25 52.9 [+]
Existing Home Sales 3027.00 3340 2570 2890 2880 3890 dwellings [+]
Home Ownership Rate 70.00 70.5 70.7 70.7 70.69 71.2 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.50 13 12.5 12.5 13 12.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00 48 48 48 47 48 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 23.00 23 23 23 23 23 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.77 14.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.78 10.75 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00 4.01 4 4 4.01 4 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Temperature 7.00 7.8 8.64 9.97 9.16 8.61 celsius [+]
Precipitation 272.00 97.41 97.41 97.41 97.41 97.41 mm [+]