Ireland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ireland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ireland economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.20 2.2 1.5 1.2 4.3 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.90 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.2 5 percent
Inflation Rate -0.40 0.6 0.8 0.9 1 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 4163500.00 4700000 4000000 4100000 6200000 3600000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 68.00 64 64 64 60 58 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.21 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.08
Stock Market 7096.06
points
6351 6164 5982 5806 5150
Government Bond 10Y 1.01
percent
1.08 1.28 1.52 1.8 3.53
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.20
percent
2.2 1.5 1.2 4.3 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 8.40
percent
5.1 4.9 4.4 4.2 2.9
GDP 304.82
USD Billion
312 312 312 318 326
GDP Constant Prices 78088.00
EUR Million
74095 77549 81524 73357 86992
Gross National Product 65818.00
EUR Million
56574 63452 68714 59701 73323
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 14697.00
EUR Million
22068 14186 15344 16928 16373
GDP per capita 66787.14
USD
73800 73800 73800 74600 75500
GDP per capita PPP 62828.34
USD
72600 72600 72600 73100 74800
GDP From Agriculture 666.00
EUR Million
699 727 695 696 742
GDP From Construction 2182.00
EUR Million
2083 2172 2278 2099 2431
GDP From Manufacturing 28551.00
EUR Million
25537 26848 29807 25733 31807
GDP From Public Administration 7620.00
EUR Million
7666 7777 7955 7710 8489
GDP From Transport 8365.00
EUR Million
8328 8475 8733 8426 9319
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90
percent
5.9 5.8 5.5 5.2 5
Employed Persons 2225.10
Thousand
2250 2300 2350 2400 2500
Unemployed Persons 144.10
Thousand
136 134 132 136 141
Unemployment Change -8764.00
Persons
4910 1500 2280 -2640 1040
Part Time Employment 461.50
Thousand
450 455 460 465 480
Full Time Employment 1761.80
Thousand
1870 1920 1970 2020 2150
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.30
percent
62.4 62.6 62.8 63 64.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.4
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.00
percent
12.5 12.2 12 11.8 10.5
Labour Costs 72.10
Index Points
94 97 100 101 110
Minimum Wages 1613.95
EUR/Month
1614 1614 1614 1660 1720
Wages in Manufacturing 867.95
EUR/Week
855 850 850 910 872
Population 4.77
Million
4.86 4.86 4.86 4.88 4.94
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Initial Jobless Claims 36032.00
Persons
38400 38000 37500 37000 37900
Productivity 161.60
Index Points
146 147 148 149 155
Employment Change 0.70
percent
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Employment Rate 68.30
percent
68.9 69 69.1 69.4 68.6
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate -0.40
percent
0.6 0.8 0.9 1 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.6
Harmonised Consumer Prices 100.30
Index Points
101 101 101 102 104
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.70
Index Points
102 102 101 102 105
Core Consumer Prices 100.60
Index Points
102 102 101 102 105
Core Inflation Rate -0.60
percent
0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.9
GDP Deflator 97.41
Index Points
104 106 108 110 120
Producer Prices 101.50
Index Points
103 99.68 106 109 110
Export Prices 95.10
Index Points
96 97 98 99 109
Import Prices 94.00
Index Points
100 101 102 104 109
Producer Prices Change -2.90
percent
1.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7
CPI Housing Utilities 105.30
Index Points
101 103 105 106 108
CPI Transportation 101.30
Index Points
103 102 102 104 106
Food Inflation -2.00
percent
0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.33
percent
-0.33 -0.33 -0.08 -0.08 0.43
Money Supply M1 160950.00
EUR Million
162000 163000 165000 167000 201000
Money Supply M2 204609.00
EUR Million
207000 208000 209000 211000 221000
Money Supply M3 213583.00
EUR Million
226000 230000 234000 238000 259000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3613.00
EUR Million
3587 3559 3860 3539 4880
Loans to Private Sector 41064.00
EUR Million
44100 46100 48200 49900 65600
Private Debt to GDP 406.71
percent
382 382 382 365 341
Central Bank Balance Sheet 100605.00
EUR Million
92200 93200 94500 95100 101500
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 4163500.00
EUR Thousand
4700000 4000000 4100000 6200000 3600000
Exports 11243551.00
EUR Thousand
12000000 10900000 11200000 13600000 12500000
Imports 7080057.00
EUR Thousand
7300000 6900000 7100000 7400000 8900000
Current Account 14904.00
EUR Million
5900 -1200 5850 4850 3560
Current Account to GDP 12.50
percent
3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.6
External Debt 2024432.00
EUR Million
2320000 2420000 2510000 2560000 2740000
Terms of Trade 101.10
Index Points
96 96.04 96.08 95.19 100
Capital Flows 11611.00
EUR Million
-2500 2100 -4000 1750 -2100
Tourist Arrivals 1920.60
Thousand
4660 3200 2850 2020 3600
Gold Reserves 6.00
Tonnes
6 6 6 6 6
Terrorism Index 3.14
3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14
Weapons Sales 13.00
USD Million
24.75 28.48 32.21 29.89 26.74
Foreign Direct Investment -18798.00
EUR Million
25600 9400 7500 9600 4500
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.00
percent
64 64 64 60 58
Government Budget -0.30
percent of GDP
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8
Government Budget Value -1304.00
EUR Million
1200 650 1750 -1100 1950
Government Spending 7302.00
EUR Million
7376 7420 7623 7446 8135
Government Spending to GDP 26.10
percent
26 26 26 26.5 27.2
Government Revenues 13018.00
EUR Million
17500 12500 16800 13200 18400
Government Debt 201294.00
EUR Million
215000 218000 221000 225000 236000
Fiscal Expenditure 14132.00
EUR Million
16300 11850 15050 14300 16450
Military Expenditure 1096.15
USD Million
996 994 992 993 1001
Asylum Applications 290.00
persons
190 280 220 160 190
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 34.00
Index Points
38 42 47 45 59
Services PMI 58.40
Index Points
57.4 56.9 55.4 55 53.8
Manufacturing PMI 55.30
57.6 57.4 55.2 57 52.9
Industrial Production -9.70
percent
-4.3 -4 5.1 6.9 3
Industrial Production Mom -7.00
percent
-0.6 0.7 -0.2 1.5 0.8
Manufacturing Production -9.90
percent
-4 -3.8 4.9 6.5 2.8
Changes in Inventories 503.00
EUR Million
650 230 507 1407 1340
Car Registrations 11557.00
4200 5100 750 18100 950
Internet Speed 15614.31
KBps
14786 14607 14417 14254 12627
IP Addresses 1663376.00
IP
1580819 1574566 1569608 1564176 1513643
Mining Production -0.50
percent
4 3.8 3.6 3 2.6
Competitiveness Index 5.16
Points
5.16 5.16 5.16 5.22 5.26
Competitiveness Rank 24.00
24 24 24 23 22
Ease of Doing Business 17.00
16 16 16 15 14
Electricity Production 2436.00
Gigawatt-hour
2400 2400 2500 2600 2600
Corruption Index 74.00
Points
75 74 75 76 77
Corruption Rank 19.00
17 17 17 16 15
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 104.00
Index Points
109 108 109 108 103
Retail Sales MoM -2.20
percent
0.5 -0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5
Retail Sales YoY -2.80
percent
3.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 2.5
Consumer Spending 24625.00
EUR Million
24714 25154 25709 25396 27433
Disposable Personal Income 226717.00
EUR Million
236000 236000 236000 251000 265000
Personal Savings 8.10
percent
8.2 8 7.9 7.8 7.2
Private Sector Credit 174248.00
EUR Million
180000 183000 186000 189000 229000
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1.25 1.25 1.75
Consumer Credit 12752.00
EUR Million
13400 13600 13800 14000 16900
Gasoline Prices 1.67
USD/Liter
1.63 1.53 1.45 1.36 0.95
Households Debt To Gdp 48.50
percent of GDP
49.2 49 48.8 48.5 45
Households Debt To Income 147.13
percent
141 141 141 134 125
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 102.70
Index Points
104 106 108 110 125
New Home Sales 555.00
dwellings
680 700 720 740 800
Building Permits 1591.00
1600 1800 1700 1550 2200
Construction Output 16.30
percent
12.2 10.5 8.9 7.5 4
Construction Pmi 60.70
57.6 57.5 55.9 55.1 52.9
Existing Home Sales 2547.00
dwellings
3300 3340 3380 3420 3580
Home Ownership Rate 69.80
percent
70.7 70.7 70.7 71 71.2
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.50
percent
12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent
48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent
23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 14.75
percent
14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.75
percent
10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 7.77
celsius
10.78 14.13 7.36 5.52 9.65
Precipitation 272.63
mm
72.66 90.18 117 96.02 96.08