Canada's RMPI Spikes on Energy Prices in March

Canada’s Raw Materials Price Index surged 12.0% month-on-month in March 2026, exceeding forecasts of 9.3% and a sharp rise from 0.6% in February. Crude energy products rose 41.1%, the largest monthly gain since May 2020, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict. Conventional crude oil jumped 44.3%, and synthetic crude oil rose 38.5%. Crop prices increased 3.9%, marking the third consecutive monthly rise, led by canola (6.5%), grains (except wheat) (4.3%), and wheat (7.1%). Metal ores, concentrates, and scrap declined 0.9%, with silver ores down 4.5% and gold ores down 2.4%. The RMPI rose 23.6% year-on-year in March.

Canada’s Raw Materials Price Index increased 0.6% month over month in February, less than market expectations for a 2.4% rise, and was up 8.6% year over year, driven mainly by a 4.8% increase in crude energy products as both conventional and synthetic oil prices climbed amid rising geopolitical risks linked to US Iran tensions. Excluding energy, the index fell 1.1%. Metal ores and scrap declined 2.7%, with sharp drops in silver and iron ore prices as inventories in China increased. Crop products rose 0.7%, led by a 6.3% jump in canola after China reduced tariffs on Canadian imports. On an annual basis, the RMPI excluding energy surged 20.9%, supported by strong gains in precious metal ores and livestock prices, while crude oil prices remained lower year over year despite recent upward pressure from geopolitical concerns.

Canada's Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) climbed 7.7% month-over-month in January 2026, accelerating from a 0.5% gain in the prior month. Metal ores, concentrates, and scrap led the advance, surging 15.6%, a ninth consecutive monthly increase, driven primarily by sharp price gains in silver ores, concentrates, and mill bullion (41.8%) and gold ores, concentrates, and mill bullion (9.5%). Crude energy products also moved higher, rising 4.6% in January, with both conventional crude oil (4.9%) and synthetic crude oil (4.3%) posting monthly gains. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, compounded by ongoing domestic unrest in the OPEC member nation, fueled concerns over potential supply disruptions and pushed crude prices higher. On a yearly basis, the RMPI rose 8.0% in January.