TSX Futures Gain on Softer Canadian Inflation

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.8% to close at 34,960 on Monday, weighed down by financial stocks. Major banks were among the biggest decliners as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher, lifting bond yields despite Canada's softer-than-expected June inflation report. RBC lost 2.1%, TD Bank shed 2.3%, BMO fell 1.9%, CIBC retreated 2.6%, and Scotiabank closed 2.3% lower. In contrast, Shopify (+1.1%) and Celestica (+2.4%) advanced, tracking the rebound in US technology shares. Energy stocks closed higher on rising oil prices, with Canadian Natural up 0.7% and Cenovus adding 1.5%. On the data front, Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, slightly below forecasts of 2.9%.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index inched up to trade above 35,000 on Monday following the release of June's inflation report. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, slightly below forecasts of 2.9%. Gasoline prices increased at a slower pace, while the Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures fell to their lowest levels in more than five years, reinforcing the BoC's view that the impact of higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East oil supply crisis is not spreading broadly throughout the economy. Canadian bond yields moved lower following the data release. Most financials traded higher, with TD Bank, BMO, CIBC, and Scotiabank edging up. Shopify (+1%) and Celestica (+4%) advanced, tracking the rebound in US technology shares. Energy stocks weighed on the index, with Canadian Natural and Suncor down about 1% each as oil prices pulled back from recent peaks.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged higher on Monday following the release of June's inflation report. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, slightly below forecasts of 2.9%. Gasoline prices increased at a slower pace, while the Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures fell to their lowest levels in more than five years, reinforcing the BoC's view that the impact of higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East oil supply crisis is not spreading broadly throughout the economy. Canadian bond yields moved lower following the data release, supporting financials and the broader index. Meanwhile, oil prices remained elevated amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran and slow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while gold prices edged lower.