TSX Falls on Middle East Tensions

The S&P/TSX Composite Index shed 0.1% to close at 34,735 on Monday, weighed down by losses in heavyweight financial and mining stocks as signs of renewed escalation in the Middle East hurt risk appetite and sent oil prices higher. Although US President Donald Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to stop attacking each other in Lebanon and that talks with Iran were continuing, fresh violence threatened efforts to end the conflict. Oil prices spiked after reports that US-Iran negotiations had stalled, reviving concerns about inflation and higher borrowing costs. RBC lost 1.3%, Scotiabank shed 1.5%, and CIBC fell 2.5%, while TD Bank dropped 2.8% after BMO (+0.6%) hired senior executive Trevor van Arragon from its rival. Mining shares also declined as gold prices fell, with Agnico Eagle down 3.6% and WPM losing 3.8%. In contrast, Shopify jumped 4.4%, tracking a tech rally on Wall Street after Nvidia unveiled a new advanced processor for PCs.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged down to trade below 35,000 on Monday as reports that Iran will halt communication with the US cast doubt on a ceasefire renewal. Oil prices rebounded, reviving stagflation concerns and pushing bond yields higher. Financial stocks came under pressure amid expectations of higher borrowing costs and a hawkish monetary outlook, with RBC and TD Bank losing nearly 1%, while CIBC shed close to 2%. Gold prices also declined, weighing on mining shares. Agnico Eagle lost 3.5%, Barrick dropped nearly 3%, and WPM shed almost 4%. Meanwhile, energy stocks advanced as oil prices rallied, with Canadian Natural up nearly 3% and Suncor gaining more than 3%. Shopify also rose almost 2%, supported by optimism around AI-driven growth following Nvidia’s announcement of a new advanced processor for PCs.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged up on Monday as enthusiasm around AI helped offset uncertainty surrounding prospects for a peace deal between the US and Iran. Canadian tech stocks are set to track gains on Wall Street after Nvidia unveiled a new advanced processor designed for PCs, further fueling optimism about AI-driven growth. The launch added to strong momentum in technology shares that has helped equity markets withstand headwinds from the Iran conflict in recent weeks. Meanwhile, hopes for an imminent peace agreement in the Middle East were tempered by another exchange of military strikes between the two sides. Oil prices rebounded, reviving stagflation concerns and pushing bond yields higher, which pressured financial stocks. Gold prices also declined, weighing on mining shares.