TSX Futures Rise on Likely US-Iran Ceasefire Extension

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged up to trade above 34,500 on Friday as a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire renewed hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict, while investors also assessed GDP data. The US and Iran agreed on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the deal still requires approval from US President Donald Trump. Oil prices retreated, pushing bond yields lower as energy-driven inflation concerns eased, supporting banks and the broader index amid reduced worries over higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP stalled in the first quarter of 2026. The data reinforced expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada and added further downward pressure on bond yields. RBC, TD Bank, and BMO gained about 1%. Higher gold prices supported miners, with Agnico Eagle up over 0.5% and Franco-Nevada advancing nearly 1%.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged up on Friday as a deal to extend the US-Iran ceasefire renewed hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict, while investors also assessed GDP data. The US and Iran agreed on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the deal still requires approval from US President Donald Trump. Oil prices retreated, pushing bond yields lower as energy-driven inflation concerns eased, supporting banks and the broader index amid reduced worries over higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP stalled in the first quarter of 2026, matching the 0.2% contraction recorded in the final quarter of 2025. The data reinforced expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada and added further downward pressure on bond yields. Gold prices also edged higher, supporting mining stocks.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to close at 34,517 on Thursday amid hopes of a US-Iran peace deal. Reports indicated that the two countries reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire, pending approval from US President Trump. The development followed Iran’s strike on a US air base in response to earlier US attacks on an alleged Iranian drone operation. Bond yields declined as prospects for easing tensions improved. Mining stocks rebounded as gold prices pared losses, with Agnico Eagle up 1.4%, Wheaton Precious Metals gaining 2.0%, and Barrick adding 0.8%. Tech shares also advanced, led by Shopify (+7.4%) and Constellation Software (+4.0%), tracking gains in US technology stocks. UBS reiterated its neutral rating on Shopify and maintained its $130 target price. Meanwhile, major banks traded mixed despite solid quarterly results from RBC (-0.4%) and TD Bank (+0.7%).