TSX Up on Falling Oil Quotes

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose about 1% to trade above 33,500 on Thursday, following a retreat in oil prices and the release of major economic data. A flash estimate indicated that the Canadian GDP expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter despite a stall in March. The dip in oil prices eases pressure on the banking sector and the broader index, backing the push against rate hikes by the BoC yesterday amid evidence of anchored inflation expectations. BMO and TD gained near 1% while Royal Bank of Canada was up 0.5%. Meanwhile, gold prices advanced on a weaker dollar, supporting miners. Agnico Eagle added more than 2% while Barrick was up over 1.5%. Meanwhile, Shopify fell over 1% on uncertainty in Meta's earnings in the US.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index were higher on Thursday, following a retreat in oil prices and a surge in mega-cap tech earnings. Reports of a potential US military strike on Iran briefly revived oil prices before those gains reversed. Global oil prices fell after touching more than $126 per barrel, but quotes remain elevated amid persistent inflation concerns. Nevertheless, the dip in oil prices eases pressure on the banking sector and the broader index. Also, tech sector gains are expected as major US tech companies reported mostly positive earnings. Meanwhile, gold prices advanced on a weaker dollar, supporting miners. In other news, both the BoC and the US Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday as expected. On the data front, estimates on real GDP by industry suggests that the Canadian economy expanded 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.8% to close at 33,318 on Wednesday as the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve held interest rates. The BoC kept its policy rate at 2.25%, as expected, maintaining a wait-and-see approach amid ongoing US-Iran tensions that are stoking inflationary fears. Meanwhile, the Fed held its benchmark rate in the 3.5%–3.75% range, citing the spike in oil prices and heightened economic uncertainty from the Iran conflict. Major banks declined, BMO was down 2%, Royal Bank of Canada fell 1.3%, and TD dropped 0.8%. Energy stocks benefited from the oil rally, while gold prices slipped, pressuring miners. Canadian Natural Resources gained 1.9%, and Agnico Eagle lost 2.9%. Shopify fell 0.7% ahead of earnings reports from major US tech companies after the market close.