TSX Futures Dip on US-Iran Ceasefire Stalemate

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged down to trade below 34,000 on Monday as stalled US-Iran peace talks dampened risk appetite ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings, including the Bank of Canada. Oil prices rose as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global supplies tight. The Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve are set to announce policy decisions on Wednesday. Markets expect the BoC to hold rates, but persistent geopolitical risks, oil shocks, and energy-driven stagflation fears, alongside higher bond yields and concerns over weaker credit demand, have raised speculation of a hawkish stance later this year. This outlook pressured banking stocks and the broader index. BMO shed 0.5%, TD lost 0.2%, and the Royal Bank of Canada edged down. Fairfax Financial lost 0.4% ahead of its earnings report. Energy producers traded higher, with Canadian Natural up 0.7% and Suncor adding 0.5% as oil prices extended gains amid supply worries.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged down on Monday as stalled US Iran peace talks dampened risk appetite ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings, including the Bank of Canada. Oil prices rose as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global supplies tight. The Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve are set to announce policy decisions on Wednesday. Markets expect the BoC to hold rates, but persistent geopolitical risks, oil shocks, and energy-driven stagflation fears, alongside higher bond yields and concerns over weaker credit demand, have raised speculation of a hawkish stance later this year. This outlook pressures banking stocks and the broader index. Energy producers are set to open higher as oil prices extend gains amid supply worries, though gains may remain modest as prices have not yet reached recent peaks. Gold prices inched down, weighing slightly on miners.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed near flat at 33,904 on Friday as investors monitored the US Iran standoff, which has kept oil prices elevated amid uncertainty over the fragile ceasefire. Tehran demonstrated control over the Strait of Hormuz with few signs of reopening soon. Brent remained high, threatening to exacerbate inflation fears and global growth concerns while pressuring major banks and the broader index. Canadian producer prices increased 2.4% month-on-month in March, driven by spikes in energy, petroleum products, and chemicals costs from the Iran conflict, raising the prospect of central bank rate hikes. Brookfield shed 0.6% and TD inched down, while Royal Bank of Canada and BMO edged up. Meanwhile, gold prices recovered but were on track for a weekly decline. WPM lost 1.8% and Franco-Nevada fell 1%, while Agnico Eagle gained 0.3% and Barrick added 2%.