TSX Futures Rise on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose nearly 0.5% to trade above 34,000 on Friday, nearing February record highs after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed full commercial access for the ceasefire’s duration. Oil prices plunged and bond yields fell, lifting banks, BMO and Scotiabank each gained about 1%, RBC and TD rose near 0.5%. In addition, gold edged higher, supporting miners, Agnico Eagle and Barrick each rose over 1%, WPM advanced more than 3%. Meanwhile, energy stocks slumped, Canadian Natural and Suncor both fell arround 6%, Cenovus shed 7.5%, Whitecap dropped about 5%. Investors await next week’s earnings from Waste Connections and Fairfax Financial to assess corporate resilience amid Iran war headwinds.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index edged higher on Friday as hopes for easing Middle East tensions left the benchmark poised for a fourth consecutive week of gains. US President Trump expressed confidence that a deal to end the Iran war could soon be reached, which would restore shipping through the Gulf region and lower oil prices. Lower bond yields offered support to banking stocks and the broader index. Energy producers, however, are set to open lower. Meanwhile, gold edged up, lending support to mining stocks. Investors also await a slate of earnings next week, including Waste Connections and Fairfax Financial, to gauge how companies are navigating the headwinds from the Iran war.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.30% to close at 34,052.23 on Thursday, despite markets getting an extra lift after President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and mediators signaled progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While geopolitical optimism grew, oil prices rose amid supply uncertainty, causing energy stocks to extend gains, driven by today's boost in oil prices, with Canadian Natural up 0.92%. Meanwhile, major banks such as TD and BMO traded lower (-0.20% and -0.40%) as the oil rally cooled and stagflation fears eased, and European buyers like Uniper continued exploring Canadian LNG purchases to diversify supply. Elsewhere, gold remained resilient, leaving Agnico Eagle nearly flat (-0.03%), while Canadian Pacific Railway led the broader market declines with a 1.37% drop.