TSX Futures Higher Amid US War Exit Hopes

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose over 1% to above the 32,300 mark on Tuesday, as the final trading session of March brought a wave of optimism following reports that US President Donald Trump is considering an end to military hostilities in the Middle East. While the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked and crude oil prices captured over $1.00 to trade near $104 per barrel the prospect of a diplomatic resolution sparked a broad rally in risk assets. Domestic data further bolstered sentiment as preliminary data reflected a third consecutive expansion in the Canadian GDP in February. The expansion was notably reflected in the financial sector with Royal Bank of Canada gaining around 1% and TD Bank rising over 1.5% while the mining sector drew support from a jump in gold prices. Despite this late month recovery the benchmark index is set to conclude March with a decline of roughly 6% as the five week conflict continues.

Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index were higher on Tuesday as investors assessed a report that US President Trump was considering a potential exit from the Iran war. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked due to the conflict. Its effective closure for weeks has fueled a sharp spike in global oil and gas prices and sparked worries over generalized inflation and recession worldwide. Canadian bond yields fell, supporting major banks. Higher oil and gold prices gave support to energy producers and miners.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.1% to close at 31,935 on Monday as the rally in commodity markets failed to offset broader market volatility and persistent stagflationary fears. While crude oil prices climbed toward 2022 highs following Houthi threats to Red Sea exports and President Trump's ultimatum regarding Iranian energy infrastructure, the heavy weight of the financial sector dragged the benchmark lower. Royal Bank of Canada dipped 0.2% and CIBC lost 0.8% as investors weighed the benefit of resilient interest margins against the risk of an economic slowdown from energy shortages. Although the mining sector remained a point of relative strength with Nutrien gaining 1.5% and OceanaGold jumping 1.6% the overall sentiment was dampened by a 7.8% slump in Celestica and broad weakness among major energy producers like Suncor.