Canada Small Business Sentiment Slumps in September

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, measuring 12-month business expectations, fell to 47.9 in September 2026 from 57.7 in August, the lowest levels in three months. Short-term optimism, based on the three-month outlook, also declined sharply to 43.3 from 53, with confidence deteriorating in all sectors, although sentiment improved in information, arts and recreation. Long-term sentiment also broadly declined, excluding insurance and real estate and professional businesses. Meanwhile, firms’ average planned price increases jumped significantly to 3.3%, while expected wage growth remained largely unchanged at 2.4%. Hiring intentions remained weak, with more firms planning to lay off (16%) than hire (13%). Weak demand remained the most frequently cited constraint, affecting nearly half of businesses, while higher fuel, tax, insurance and wage costs continued to pressure operating expenses.

Canada’s CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, measuring 12-month business expectations, fell to 57.6 in August 2026 from 58.6 in June. Short-term optimism, based on the three-month outlook, also declined sharply to 52.4 from 57.6, with confidence deteriorating in manufacturing, construction, transportation and utilities, and information, arts and recreation. By contrast, long-term sentiment improved across most sectors, with agriculture the only exception (39.1 vs 39.2). Meanwhile, firms’ average planned price increases remained stable at 2.7%, while expected wage growth edged up to 2.5%. Hiring intentions were broadly unchanged, although more firms planned to lay off (15%) than hire (13%). Weak demand remained the most frequently cited constraint, affecting nearly half of businesses, while higher fuel, tax, insurance and wage costs continued to pressure operating expenses.

Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which measures 12-month business expectations, climbed to 58.3 in July 2026 from 50.1 in June, reaching its highest level since tensions in the Middle East began. The short-term optimism index, based on the three-month outlook, also rose sharply to 57.0 from 47.2. Confidence improved across sectors, with most remaining in positive territory, although persistent uncertainty continued to weigh on near-term sentiment. Meanwhile, firms' average planned price increases eased to 2.7% from 3.0%, while expected wage growth held steady at 2.3%. Hiring intentions improved modestly, as the share of businesses planning to add full-time staff increased to 15% from 13%, exceeding those expecting to reduce headcount (11% vs. 12% previously). Weak demand remained the most frequently cited constraint, affecting half of all businesses, while higher fuel, taxes, insurance, and wage costs continued to pressure on operating expenses.